Chances with low GPA, high ACT?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

By the end of junior year, I project that I will have about a 3.45-3.5 GPA, assuming my grades stay about where they are now. I go to a top 3 public high school in my state (depending on what list you look at) and have taken a decent amount of AP and Honors courses, not maxed out though, with a packed senior schedule (3 AP, 2 Honors). I kind of messed up sophomore year and took on more than I could handle at that point and came out with straight B’s, which tanked me, but this year is going much better.

My first try at the ACT with 0 prep was a 31, though, and I am taking a class soon to get that up (goal is a 33). My math was a disaster (26), so if I can get that to an acceptable level, I should be golden.

My ECS:

NHS member (running for leadership position next year)
High school newspaper copy editor (top 5 program in country), have won various awards for writing
Short track speed skater (8 years, stopped earlier this year due to injury)
DECA member and competitor, state qualifier
Quill and scroll member
Scholastic Journalism Week volunteer
Peer helpers (mentor middle schoolers once a week)
Lots of odds and ends volunteering (packed presents for underprivileged children on Christmas, various speed skating meets, etc.)
Worked a summer job at Subway, looking to get another one soon.

Schools I’m looking at:

Easy Admit: Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, AZ state, Mizzou

Likely admit: Elon, Syracuse, Florida, Miami, Penn State, Wisconsin Madison

Reaches: UT Austin, UGA, NYU, USC

How do you feel about my chances at the bottom 2 groups? What can I do to increase my chances?

2

Math is the easiest section to improve, so hopefully you’ll hit 30+.
That’ll be good enough for Elon, Syracuse, Penn State if you apply in September, perhaps UWisc, Miami-Ohio.
Try to aim for Honors College though.
UT AUstin zero chance (with the instate cap), USC CA out of reach, USC Columbia possible but unlikely for Honors, UGA is a reasonable reach, NYU = why??
The KEY question is your parents’ budget.
Run the NPC on your state’s flagship, Elon, and two others. Bring the results to your parents, make sure they sit down as they probably don’t know how much college costs these days, and start discussing your options.

3

I wouldn’t say likely admit for Florida UW or MIami those would fall under the reach category IMO. Course rigor is alright but nothing too special there a lot of seniors who take only aps and get better grades. Your GPA is a bit on the lower end though a 33 would help that. ECs are nothing too unique either. They’re solid but bland. Overall profile is pretty good and on most of your guesses I’d agree except for UF UW and Miami those would be reaches but like low reaches.

4

Colleges like improvement, If you can boost your GPA, it won’t matter so much that it started out lower. If you get your ACT up a little more, you’ll be a decent contender.