Chances @ Yale, Swarthmore, etc?!

<p>Hi guys-
I want to know what my chances are for getting into my top colleges:
Yale (Early Action)
and...Vassar, Swarthmore, Duke, Amherst, UPenn (my top school after Yale), Pomona, Washington U. in St. Louis, and University of Chicago.</p>

<p>I just wanted some advice/input from everyone here.
I'm a high school senior in Arizona, a national merit semifinalist, and I've taken journalism for four years. I'm editor in chief of my high school newspaper, and have won two top (although kind of minor) awards (in editorial writing and newswriting) at national scholastic journalism competitions. I've dedicated myself A LOT to journalism the past four years because I really love it, even though it isn't weighted. It brought my rank down considerably, though. I'm also active in Youth in Government (three years). I've also played the saxophone for eight years and I volunteer at this tutoring place to teach kids how to become better readers.
I've established a really good relationship with my teachers, so I'm fairly sure I have good, informative recommendations.
I also took a summer program in journalism at Oxford University this summer (although you had to pay...it wasn't merit based, but I got to do something I loved). I also travel every year to India and have lived around the world...though that doesn't (and probably shouldn't) help.
Anyway... my test scores and GPA are the real problems:
Rank: 50 in a class of 650 (it's b/c of newspaper)
GPA: 3.97 unweighted (one B in Hrs Pre Calc)
SAT I: Math- 660 Verbal- 720 Writing-790 (argh!)
Math really isn't my strength, as is obvious.
I've taken all honors and AP courses...except journalism. Another thing: I technically have "four years" of math, but I gave it up after Honors Pre-Calc because I really, really wanted to take AP Human Geography instead (I want to go into international studies and law, so it really helps) Do you think the elite Ivies would mind? I don't want to go into math at all, though I know it helps.
Writing is really my strength, and I think that shows through on my essays.
I know a lot of my schools are a stretch, but please be brutally honest and let me know.
One more thing...my interview at Swarthmore lasted an hour, and the lady and I really got along. After that, she personally mailed a postcard to my house where she said how much she enjoyed talking to me, and offered me help with the Swarthmore admissions process. She also sent me a Swattie newsletter and newspaper. Is this normal, or do I have reason to be hopeful?!</p>

<p>I'm no expert at judging chances, but I've never heard of someone getting into yale with bellow 2200 without a good hook</p>

<p>Do you really love Vassar, it's the only school that isn't a reach. Assuming you're Indian, you are an ORM with significaantly below average SATs for these schools and a barely OK rank. Uphill all the way.</p>

<p>arghhh!
No, Vassar isn't really a top choice, but I like it. Wouldn't pay all that money to go there when I have full ride to ASU, though.</p>

<p>Then why are you applying?</p>