<p>So if those were the 2013 numbers it maybe explains why this year was so hard for girls, trying to even out the distribution a little bit. Maybe? (she said hopefully thinking of her D in class of 2019) It will be really interesting to see this year’s numbers.</p>
<p>@evilqueen - the numbers have historically skewed in favor of men - there are fewer of them and more needed because of roles available. Many schools aim for more men then women and always have. The odds aren’t terrific for girls, but you can do it! </p>
<p>I think I remember reading somewhere that 75% of roles in musical theater are male…</p>
<p>Here is some actual data on the male/female role split in Musicals from Stage Agent - historically, the split is approximately 60/40:</p>
<p>Leading Roles
Men: 600 (57%) Women: 460 (43%) Ratio: 1.30</p>
<p>Supporting Roles
Men: 1,020 (60%) Women: 680 (40%) Ratio: 1.50</p>
<p>Cameo Roles
Men: 1,200 (63%) Women: 700 (39%) Ratio: 1.71</p>
<p>TOTAL (all classified roles)
Men: 2,820 (60%) Women: 1,840 (40%) Ratio: 1.50</p>
<p>Total including unclassified roles (N/A in Stage Agent):
Men: 4,500 (60%) Women: 2,940 (40%) Ratio: 1.50</p>
<p>All numbers are approximate - the results are the number of pages returned by queries multiplied by the number of results per page (20). The estimated error from the resulting rounding is between 1 and 2 percent. I didn’t feel like paging through all the results just to count the number on the last page to be precise (Stage Agent needs a “>>|” button).</p>
<p>The mix can change extremely, intentionally or unintentionally from one year to another. My daughter attends U of Utah. The above list shows the year before hers (8 Men, 14 Women), they will be Juniors in 2014-15. Her class, after some kids left and others transferred in, is currently 2 Men, 15 Women! I know they tried to compensate for this year’s incoming class so I assume the ratio will even out a little more for the Freshman class. </p>
<p>While the information on class size and class mix is interesting, and can give a little insight on one aspect of what the experience might be like for students in the program, it is not necessarily indicative of whether or not a school may be an “easier” admit for men or women. </p>
<p>As shaun0203 said above, the mix can change from year to year intentionally or unintentionally… Ex. for the past five years at JMU MT we have admitted approximately an even number of men and women each year, and the class breakdown is:
Class of 2014 – 4 men and 4 women
Class of 2015 – 4 men and 5 women
Class of 2016 – 7 men and 6 women
Class of 2017 – 6 men and 5 women
Class of 2018 – 4 men and 6 women</p>
<p>So, there is a slight variation from year to year in terms of the gender mix of students admitted who choose to attend. The gender mix could just as easily go far in one direction or another (as shaun0203 posted above at U of Utah) </p>
<p>Also the data on the class size and gender breakdown of the students attending a given program do not take into account how many auditioned, and how many accepted to yield that number. So, it is just one piece of the picture. 
</p>
<p>I know with ONU there are always a ton of acceptances, with very few actual joiners. </p>
<p>I want to play devil’s advocate with the numbers for one second and see what you all think. </p>
<p>@EmsDad posted the following for us: “If you add the numbers for the MT programs shown in the post from MTMajorCook, the girls enrolled in MT actually outnumber the guys: 303 to 244, or 55% to 45% (I excluded the Acting programs).”</p>
<p>It looks like there were 547 people admitted to MT programs in 2013. I have heard the “universe” of total auditoners is around 2000 because so many apply for multiple programs. This seems to make the odds OVERALL much better than we usually talk about. Not for specific programs, but for the ability to get a BFA in MT. Am I doing the math wrong? </p>
<p>That’s an interesting way to look at it @evilqueen. Where did you get the 2000 number? I don’t think I’ve heard that before. </p>
<p>Evilqueen - Interesting observation. But, specific programs is important because you can only apply to specific programs. In other words, if the goal is to get a BFA MT Anywhere that is probably achievable for most students, but whose goal is that? It certainly wasn’t my kids. And, you still have to be sure to apply there. And, want to attend.</p>
<p>@Flossy, totally agree that specific programs matter but everyone has a different vision of what that is so I still think this number is relevant. Kid 1 and Kid 2 could offer equally great packages to a college but one doesn’t want small towns and one doesn’t care so they apply to different schools. The numbers above suggest that we should be a little more optimistic that there will be an appropriate place for our kid. </p>
<p>@raellis123 I wish I could remember where I heard that number, I think it read it somewhere on CC. Even if the number were double that the odds are still better than we usually discuss.</p>
<p>@evilqueen - you are right, there is definitely hope. while the odds at any SINGLE program border on astronomical (.5% etc) overall our talented kids find their place. I think the REAL odds to be afraid of are the number of jobs and the number of actors AFTER college! </p>
<p>evilqueen…even if the numbers are not accurate, you do have a point. It is a point that DrJohn (head of theater at Otterbein and frequent contributor to this forum) made a long time ago on this forum (he used some math too). The overall odds of getting into a BFA in MT program (at least one) for a talented candidate are better than the odds of getting into one particular program (which are typically single digits percentage acceptance rates). It’s still very difficult odds, but if you have the requisite talent, etc., and build a realistic and balanced list of colleges, you should gain acceptance some place on your list. </p>
<p>toowonderful…yes, the odds of jobs for actors after college are really difficult! But there are all sorts of work in music and in theater and so the odds of working in some capacity in the field are not extreme odds. The odds of being cast on Broadway? Yes, VERY low odds!</p>
<p>From the data available here on the MT forum, the average number of students per program is around 14. There are 56 programs listed at the top of the forum, multiplying that by 14 yields an estimate of 784 available slots. But there are many more programs than just those 56 - the Big List contains well over 200 programs. Using a number of 75 programs yields more than 1,000 slots. </p>
<p>Here is a link to the post from a while back by doctorjohn that @soozievt refers to where he did some encouraging math:</p>
<p><a href=“First-Timers: The Stressed Parents Thread - #67 by doctorjohn - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums”>First-Timers: The Stressed Parents Thread - #67 by doctorjohn - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums;
<p>The whole thread “First-Timers: The Stressed Parents Thread” is pretty good:
<a href=“First-Timers: The Stressed Parents Thread - Musical Theater Major - College Confidential Forums”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/461567-first-timers-the-stressed-parents-thread-p1.html</a></p>
<p>It would seem that using a list of balanced, well-researched choices for applications, for well-prepared students, that are developed with “fit” in mind, should yield a spot somewhere.</p>
<p>^^Thanks, EmsDad!</p>
<p>As a humorous aside…we should merge these latest posts on this thread with the discussion as to whether to take Calculus or Stats in HS on another thread, ha ha. </p>
<p>@soozievt Hilarious… I had exactly the same thought! LOL! </p>
<p>Using the formulas provided by DrJohn in the referenced thread and updating the data in volume for both schools and applicants. No science to the updates but since the result is close to his I think his analysis stills works and is encouraging going into audition season. There are of course way more than 40 schools so this is a conservative estimate really :)</p>
<p>applicants 2,500
slots 20
schools 40
total slots 800
gender slots 400
Female applicants 1,675 (67%)
Male applicants 825
Female odds 24%
Male odds 48%</p>
<p>Uhm, don’t these odds only work if you apply to all of them or increase greatly if you apply to the bottom 15 and decrease exponentially if you apply only to the top 10. The goal I guess is a balanced list. And a safety. Not sure I’m getting this, though. There are too many variables among both programs and applicants. One candidate is not like another. Same with schools.</p>
<p>It is a generalization to help ease our collective hysteria caused by the myth that there is 4% acceptance rate fot BFA MT programs. It is reasonable to think your D has about a 25% chance to be admitted to a BFA MT program at a school that at least many of the applicants would find acceptable. Of course one candidate is not like another, that is why one person’s top school and another’s are not the same, even if the total package of what they offer the school in terms of talent, skills, work ethic are the same. That is also why these numbers work better than what you suggest. </p>
<p>@evilqueen fun exercise but suspending all discussion of who auditions where one immediate problem is that for the 25% to be something close to representative, you’d have to audition at all 40 schools. The average MT maybe does something closer to 10. </p>