<p>The class of '08 was one of the smallest, and the class of '10 is the largest by far. The class of '09 is however the most competitive (oh no!)</p>
<p>Hope more c/o 2010ers smoke more pot so I have less people to worry about.</p>
<p>08 and 09 should be where it peaks</p>
<p>Post #23 is mostly correct. </p>
<p>In a number of states '07-'08 was when the # of graduating white
seniors peaked ([url=<a href="http://www.wiche.edu/Policy/Knocking/1992-2022/data.asp">http://www.wiche.edu/Policy/Knocking/1992-2022/data.asp</a>] see this link to the data [/ul]).</p>
<p>The combination of different ethinicity/race numbers might dealy the
peak in some states to next year or one year after but this matters
only if you put down "race unknown". </p>
<p>you should be considering what you put down as your
group/ethinicity/race (if any) and see what happens with
the trend?</p>
<p>The number of high school graduates peaked nationally in 2008 and will be down just slightly in 2009 and 2010---not enough of a change at that scale to affect college admissions. But regional and state-by-state changes are more complicated. High school graduates will be down in the Northeast and Midwest, generally up in the Southeast, and mixed in the West, with some states down sharply and others showing explosive growth. Especially notable is that non-Hispanic whites---the group statistically most likely to attend college---will be down quite significantly in many parts of the Northeast and Midwest, possibly enough to affect college admissions for colleges that draw their student bodies principally from those regions.</p>
<p>But other trends could offset this. I don't have data to prove it, by my impression is that in response to an increasingly competitive college admissions environment, students are applying to more colleges now than in the past, thereby amplifying the competitiveness. Also, online applications coupled with widespread use of the Common Application has simplified the application process, making it easier for students to apply to more colleges. Bottom line, it's hard to see any significant change one way or the other at the HYPS level, but most colleges and universities still draw primarily from a regional applicant pool, and competitive pressure at schools in some parts of the Northeast and Midwest may ease just a bit over the next few yewars.</p>
<p>'08 and '09 are by far more competitive for us than for '10ers. These two years are going to break a LOT of records.</p>
<p>why? what caused this? besides, I know a lot of '09s and '10s and the '10s are definitely ALOT better</p>
<p>surprisingly, my year (09) is the least competitive compared to 08 and 10. 08 had, by far, the smartest people. They won academic competitions left and right (1st place national) and many people NOT in the top 10 went to ivy league schools, whereas that never occured before. Even though they were smart, not many of them ended up in top tier schools, opting out for state schools etc.</p>
<p>omg this is kind of weird.
exactly same at my school.
not only is the class of 2009 the smartest class (based on average unweighted gpa) it is also the largest my school has ever had.</p>
<p>There are two separate inputs here:</p>
<p>1) # of students graduating high school
2) % of graduating students applying to 4 year colleges</p>
<p>even if the first measure peaks for HS graduates of 2009, the number of college applicants can still go up each year because a higher % will be applying to college.</p>
<p>I do not expect to see the # of applicants to top 200 schools EVER going down. I think the % increase in applicants to college will result in more students than any reduction in # of HS graduates.</p>
<p>yeah exactly. I don't think '09 will be a "peak". I think it will increase indefinitely... the only way admissions cahnces will raise is if unis increase their class size, which i think will happen in the near future (like '11). It's a good investment for the school (more alumni = more chance for donations), and they always say they have more qualified applicants than they have room for...</p>
<p>Class of '08 was a joke at my school. We sure didn't feel the frenzy. Same with '10. '09 is the biggest, and most competitive grade my school has ever seen. Sucks for me. My GC said if I were in the class of '08, I'd be in the top 5%. Instead I'm in the top 10% for '09.</p>
<p>I'm wondering where you guys are getting the statistics that say the class of 2013 will be the most competitive ever before it levels off. Sounds kind of like a long shot to me. The rising juniors at my class are working just as hard as the rising seniors.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>I agree with respect to perhaps the top 25 research universities and top 25 LACs, but below that level regional demographic shifts could have a large impact. Apart from the top handful, most LACs draw primarily from a regional base. Even Haverford, ranked the #10 LAC by US News, draws about 2/3 of its student body from the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, areas where a very high percentage of HS grads already attend college and the number of HS grads is expected to drop by 1% per year over the next decade or so, a quite significant drop that probably can't be made up by rising rates of college attendance. Compounding this, the percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the graduating senior pool---statistically the group most likely to attend college---is expected to drop significantly faster than the overall number of HS grads. These regional demographic trends could have a significant impact, but they're largely masked in the national data by rapid growth in parts of the Southeast and Southwest, and by rapid growth in Hispanic HS grads (who so far anyway are statistically much less likely to attend college, and significantly less likely to statr out at a traditional 4-year college). </p>
<p>I'm hearing a lot of anecdotal evidence that colleges in the Northeast, aware of these trends, are planning to beef up their out-of-region recruiting, and also to aggressively pursue the most qualified Hispanic candidates nationally, cognizant that this is the growing demographic group from which they'll need to draw a larger fraction of their student body in the future. They express confidence that with an aggressive effort they can keep up not only the total numbers in the applicant pool, but also---and equally important for them--the overall quality of the applicant pool. The top ones like Haverford will, I'm sure. A notch or two below that (but still within the top 200) it may be more of a struggle. And that implies some easing of the competitive pressure to get into some very good schools in the Northeast. Competition will only increase in the southeast and southwest, however. And for HYPS and a small handful of super-elites, no problem: their applicant pools will likely only keep growing.</p>
<p>My class ('10) at my school is kinda lame. Most of them don't do any EC's, and are happy when they win a school award/manage to make honor roll. The '09 at my school on the otherhand is incredible. It is the first year our school has 2 AP Physics classes, and there's also an USAMO qualifier as well, and 4 USNCO/USABO qualifiers. It's also the biggest class as well.</p>
<p>bc-</p>
<p>you remind me of an hispanic applicant to Wesleyan who had a "tortilla test". Wouldn't go to a school that didn't have good tortillas readily available nearbye. </p>
<p>Northeastern LACs need to find ways to recruit southwestern hispanics... and that would include revamping the financial aid to follow the leads of Princeton/harvard/Stanford.</p>
<p>I agree with DunninLA. Even if the baby boomlet peaks, the selective colleges are going to find more ways to get more applications. It won't get easier folks.</p>
<p>soooooo basically we all agree that we have an uphill battle ahead of us this year </p>
<p>..</p>
<p>alexkaye, yeah pretty much.
i guess this is the part where i squeal that my class is super duper competitive too? ... well, it's true. lol. and it's the largest graduating class since.. well, a long time.</p>
<p>are we the babyboomers baby-booms?
did that make sense?</p>
<p>I'll add one more dissenting example. My senior class is on average, less strong academically than our previous graduating class, in which, while we didn't have any people accepted to ivys, we did have a couple Vanderbilt acceptances, a Duke acceptance, and a few more colleges around that tier. And then the holy grail class was two years ago, when there were two kids who got into Yale and Princeton, respectively, and a couple of other good schools. So we're actually declining in academic strength, apparently. </p>
<p>We also have about ten less people than our previous senior class, but that's because quite a few people got expelled\asked to leave. But I definitely agree that the upcoming year of college admissions is going to be pretty tough.</p>