<p>mathmomvt,
Do you have any predictions for where the score “bubble” in Vermont specifically might be for the class of 2014? Is there any data for the state of Vermont out yet?</p>
<p>nordic, all we can do is look at past years’ data. My best guess is that 217 or above is safe, 216 is probably good, and 213-215 is in the bubble zone. I doubt the cutoff will be below 213 for VT. There are some additional state-specific statistics that will come out toward the end of this month that may help us refine those estimates a tiny bit more.</p>
<p>Vermont is a small state though, so its scores tend to be a bit more volatile and unpredictable than those of larger states. Hang in there!</p>
<p>218 in Texas. Will the cutoff likely remain in the 215-217 range for this year?</p>
<p>My dd’s psat report said her score was within the 98th percentile. Is that nationally? Does that have any impact in the Merit world? :)</p>
<p>zaaakk – I think so.</p>
<p>ScarletSeer – the percentile listed is national. Other than for National Merit consideration, the PSAT doesn’t really have any impact. If you look at the threads listing automatic scholarships based on stats, you’ll get an idea what kind of SAT scores might net aid at what kinds of schools.</p>
<p>219 in Texas. The highest cutoff score in Texas was a 219 (2 years ago). Last year, it was a 216. You think it’ll be around the same area. What do you think of chances of it raising to a 220?</p>
<p>I already told zaaakk that I thought he was in good shape with a 218 in TX 
I think you’re probably fine. I can’t give you a probability or anything, but I’d say your safe to start looking into NMF scholarship opportunities.</p>
<p>anyone have an opinion on 218 in WA?</p>
<p>You guys can check the recent cutoffs and follow my advice below. You don’t need me to look each one up for you 
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<p>Copied from post #42 (the answer to life, the universe and everything…):</p>
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</p>
<p>@mathmomvt–You have been very helpful and kind to these kids!! Thank you!</p>
<p>@mathmomvt, you are a saint! </p>
<p>Congrats to all those who have posted with stellar scores. There is tons of info in this board, take the time to scroll through and read it. On thing to note is that this year’s cut from Semi to Finalist pretty much eliminated anyone with a c on thier transcript.</p>
<p>A few points over the the high score should get you there. Because of test practice scores are getting higher so you’re smart to consider an upward bias. Three points over the record cut off high should be good. Five points should be golden.</p>
<p>I seem to remember a thread in early January where someone suggested that enough info is usually known by the end of Jan to give a pretty accurate prediction about what the states’ cutoffs are likely to be? Anyone know if the info is out there yet to make those calculations?</p>
<p>I’m dying to hear about Idaho this year: for the first time, our state paid for and required EVERY public high school junior to take the PSAT. Private school kids could sit free at their designated public school.</p>
<p>Formerly, most of the kids who chose to take the PSAT were definitely college-bound, probably skewing the population to a group likely to get higher scores. You would think our state average would drop this year, and that the top percentile group would widen, including a lower NMSF threshold. </p>
<p>We shall see. I have no horse in the race this year, but am very curious!</p>
<p>Does anyone know if any other states are mandating and funding the PSAT?</p>
<p>I checked the college board site this morning and the 2011 administered PSAT state score reports are still the ones available. For those of you waiting to see the data it will be on this page soon: [College-Bound</a> Juniors & Sophomores | Research and Development](<a href=“http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr]College-Bound”>SAT Suite of Assessments – Reports | College Board)</p>
<p>If timing is the same as in years past, they should be available at the end of next week or the next.</p>
<p>^^RobD, thanks. It will be fascinating to compare last year to this for Idaho. Or at least fascinating to data geeks like me.</p>
<p>riverrunner, I don’t think having a lot of extra kids taking the test will necessarily change the cutoff. It definitely won’t lower it. </p>
<p>Remember it’s not the top 1% (or any particular percent) of test takers in a state that gets recognized, it’s a fixed number based on the number of HS graduates in the state. So if they’re going to take the top 100 kids (or whatever that number ends up being), it really makes no difference if a bunch of extra kids who never had a shot of being top 100 in your state are also taking the test. Yes, it lowers the mean in your state and lowers the percentile bands, but it does not change the scores of the top 100 kids, so the cutoff doesn’t change.</p>
<p>It could <em>raise</em> the cutoff if some strong kids without parents or guidance counselors in the know end up taking the PSAT this year who never would have otherwise heard of it, and some of them do end up in the top 100, bumping out other kids who would have made it if those kids had remained in the dark.</p>
<p>Just because you pay a bunch of money for a private school does not mean you will get the better education.</p>
<p>^^ true, though I’m not sure what your point is in the context of this thread</p>
<p>I would rather if they just had one cut off they used nationally, rather than making it different by the state.</p>