The commended score is national. I think it is interesting to compare the historical commended score with your state’s cutoff. In Texas, the NMSF cutoff score ranges from 14 to 17 points above the commended cutoff. For the last several years, the NMSF cutoff for Texas was 16 or 17 above the commended cutoff. As I was obsessively trying to predict the Texas cutoff (more accurately, as I was obsessively trying to find evidence that my son’s score would make the cut), I was relieved to hear the commended cutoff last year because even if the NMSF cutoff was 18 above commended (which had never happened yet), my son was safe.
If nothing else, it helps pass the time until September.
Adding up the changes in the average scores over the previous year results in a change of -1.1%. In the past a negative change has resulted in either no change in the commended score or a drop in the commended score. Increases in the commended score have only occurred when there were increases in the average scores from the year before.
On the same page, previous years results are available on a drop down field.
I did not look up the numbers and do the calculations for MA. If you want to look up the numbers for MA, I will plug them in. You can send me an message or post them here.
I need the number of students for MA who scored in the 75-80 range for each of the 3 subject areas. I also need the total number of test takers. I will need that for each of the past 6 years. To get this information you need to:
google “2014-2015 college-bound high school juniors summary report” without the quotations. Click on the top result and then substitute the state abbreviation in the URL address to get the MA result. Then increment the year back one year to get the previous year’s numbers.
If you are willing to do this, then I am willing to plug it in and give you my best estimate.
@WRUAustin. Regarding the NJ scores, you mentioned that the 2009 score point was apart from the others in the linear regression. In what way? And, how did that affect the overall picture?
Yes, the NJ 2009 point was the only point for any of the points of all the states I tried that didn’t appear close to the line in the linear regression. If I included the point, then it made the class of 2016 projection lower than it would be if I excluded the point. In post #177, made to projections for NJ, one with the point included and one (NJ*) with the stray point excluded. With all the points, my projection is a little about 223… With the bad point excluded it is more likely 224. For you sake I hope it is 223. The uncertainty in this projection is higher than all the other states I have looked at.
I have not looked at TN. If you would like me to do it, please do the work outlined in post #187.
The one clarification I would make is I would change the sentence “Then increment the year back one year to get the previous year’s numbers.” and replace it with “Then increment the year back one year and regoogle to find a state report and then substitute your desired state in the URL address to get the correct report.”
I need 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 reports. 2008-2013 to build the linear regression line and 2014 to make the prediction.
@WRUAustin Thank you for what you are doing. I had done something similar for Texas when scores came out and felt it was anywhere from 218 to 220. That didn’t help me as a mom of a S with a 219. I had not factored in number of graduating seniors. You mentioned population growth above. What source did you use for that?
I don’t see Texas being any higher than 219. Everything I see points to 218. 219 is a possibility, but I would be stunned to see it at 220. I would also be disappointed as my S scored 219. I tend to be pessimistic and I heard from the local experts that he was very likely safe, but I was compelled to crunch the numbers myself.
It will be interesting what the commended score turns out to be when people find out in April. It looks like it might stay at 201 or perhaps even lower. If it goes up to 203, then I might be a little nervous, but I don’t see that happening.
Yes, that is exactly what I need. TN has an interesting trend of fewer test takers the past few years while the overall population is growing (though not fast). So, I have assumed that the student population is growing at the same rate as the overall population (same assumption I’ve made in other states).
It looks like the stats indicate that this years cutoff will be very similar to the prior year for most states. I’m sure there will be outliers, but Indiana seems to have a similar trend compared to your calculations in other states
@WRUAustin although my TX son scored a 228 (and hopefully well clear), I just wanted to thank you for your service, it is people like you that makes CC such an awesome place.
