^^^ see WRUAustin’s post #193 She predicts 218
question: how are cutoff scores determined- by percent or by number?
I had a request by a message to calculate the number for MA. They provided the data I requested.
First Method, Revised Method**
State,2015 prediction, 2015 actual, 2016 Prediction,2015P,2015A,2016P
MA ,223.1 ,223,222.8,223.0,223,223.1
So, it looks to be no change from last year, or 223.
Any predictions for Ohio?
Last 3 years in Ohio: 214 in 2012, 212 in 2013, 215 in 2014. I think if your score is > 215, I think you’re in the safe zone.
Thank you for providing me with the data. Here are my calculations.
First Method, Revised Method**
State,2015 prediction, 2015 actual, 2016 Prediction,2015P,2015A,2016P
OH ,212.9 ,213,214.2,212.3,213,213.3
The “first method” had a very high R2 or high correlation. I “revised method” was created to account for the population growth of a state. However, the population of Ohio has been very stable, so variation in number of test takers may be related to the actual change in the number of students, so the first method may be a better representation for OH. All that being said, my best guess is 214. Good luck.
Thanks!
Sorry if I missed it - new here! 
Has anyone made a prediction for Wisconsin?
Any predictions for commended @WRUAustin?
I have not seen a prediction for WI. I have been making predictions for other states after people gather some information for me. I’d be glad to do it for WI if you gather the information for me. Look for my posts over the past few pages to see where I state what information I need. Post#235. In general it doesn’t seem like there are any big changes coming for the states I’ve calculated.
See post #185 for commended comments. I will post some additional information here.
http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr contains the percentage changes in the averages that I am showing below. I am adding up the changes from all 3 sections.
Year,Score,Change in Avg’s from previous year
2004,202,
2005,203,0.2
2006,200,-4.4
2007,200,-1.2
2008,201,0.7
2009,201,-0.4
2010,202,0.7
2011,200,-0.1
2012,203,1.3
2013,201,-0.9
2014,???,-1.1
So, there has never been an increase in the commended score when the summation of the changes in the averages has been negative. So, I don’t expect an increase in the commended score over last year. It might even point to a decrease in the commended score, but that seems a bit inconsistent with the results from the individual states which seem to show most states staying the same or perhaps a slight increase in the cutoff scores. My best guess is for no change in the commended score. Caveat emptor.
@WRUAustin Thank you so much. I did go back and read your post #185. Praying for a one point decrease in commended.
Does anyone have predictions for GA? I made a 213, however the cutoff last year was a 215. praying for a 2 point decrease, however im just excited to be commended!!
Congratulations on your excellent score and your certain commended status. That is excellent.
I took a look at the historical GA numbers and over the past nine years, the lowest GA cutoff score has been 214. I then took a quick look at the GA summary reports for this year and last year and from the quick look it would appear that the cutoff score would be 215 or 216 for this year. I’m sorry.
The one great thing about GA is that they have the Hope Scholarship, so if you want to go to a GA public school (Georgia or G Tech) then that will be very helpful. I suspect that you would do well at one of those excellent schools!
@WRUAustin
I have data for WA,if you can run the regression for your prediction for cut-off for 2014-2015. Thanks.
Year 75-80R/75-80M/75-80W/Total (actual cut off score)
2014-15 390/609/280/1279 (predicting 218)
2013-14 434/620/268/1322 (219)
2012-13 476/435/415/1326 (220)
2011-12 323/323/275/921 (216)
2010-11 466/511/372/1349 (220)
2009-10 415/555/288/1258 (218)
2008-09 407/404/214/1025 (217)
@WRUAustin
Oops, sorry, provided the wrong Totals above. Here are the total # of students per year. Sorry about that.
2014: 40,525
2013: 40,625
2012: 35,480
2011: 35,692
2010: 33,356
2009: 32,010
2008: 31,153
Here are the results:
First Method, Revised Method**
State,2015 prediction, 2015 actual, 2016 Prediction,2015P,2015A,2016P
WA ,217.5 ,219,217.6,218.9,219,218.4
In this case the R2 (goodness of fit) value was much higher in the revised method. In fact, it was very good. The variation in the number of test takers was large over the years and thus population growth (revised method) was a better method. Plus the 2015 prediction was much more accurate with the revised method.
So, I would guess 218 (like you guessed) or 219. Good luck.
So much to learn. I downloaded the spreadsheet now to try and figure it out. I will try and do that tonight. Thanks for the input.
We are in Indiana.
If you are speaking about the spreadsheet that I posted for calculating the cutoff scores it only contains the original version. There is an updated version that I didn’t post because it the methodology requires more steps. I will calculate Indiana if you give me some data. See Post#235.
Ok, thank you. I will get that when I get home. Its been a long day.
Ok here is the scores and totals for Indiana. @WRUAustin
R M W Total
14-15 195 366 181 35,100
13-14 218 404 170 33,900
12-13 262 306 262 34,236
11-12 185 204 209 35,058
10-11 262 375 310 35,647
09-10 204 342 162 37,374
I think that was what you needed. I really appreciate this.