Here are the results:
First Method, Revised Method**
State,2015 prediction, 2015 actual, 2016 Prediction,2015P,2015A,2016P
IN ,213.6 ,212,212.7,213.1,212,212.4
So, I would guess 212. My second guess would be 211 as it seems like the model predicted high for last year and that the 2014 results are a bit weaker than the 2013 results. Good luck.
Chiming in with my twin sons scores on the PSAT in Michigan. They scored a 219 and a 223. Hoping for double wammy scholarships!!! Already have two daughters in college.
I wonder if a university would give two full rides to twins?? Anybody??
@April2016 If your twins both get to NMF and choose a full ride school for NMF, I think they would.
How many schools give full rides for NMF? I have not seen an updated list.
@April2016…Congrats on 2 great scores for your twins!! Both those scores are well above Michigan’s historical highest qualifying score, so barring something unforeseen you should have 2 NMSFs come September. <:-P We’re from MI also, and our D1 and D2 (Class of '11 and '15 respectively) are both NMFs and attending/will attend college debt free thanks to the NM program. $-)
If you’re asking if schools that offer full-ride packages to NMFs will give 2 packages to the same family for twins, they absolutely will. Most of the large dollar packages (UKy, OU, Bama, UCF, etc.) are guaranteed for NMFs who name that school as their first-choice, so the only reason I can think of why twins wouldn’t get the same offer is if the school offers a capped number of scholarships or if NM money only gets you part way towards full ride and the rest is dependent on other schollies (UMinn for example).
Thanks for taking the time to respond. I’m so anxious to see how all of this is going to play out - I can hardly stand it. Debt-free college bring tears to my eyes. Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
@April2016 Your kids should make NMSF just fine with their scores, like Wolverine said. One thing to keep in mind for getting to Finalist (where most of the scholarships are available) is their grades. From historic findings, NMSC doesn’t seem to like Cs. One sometimes passes, sometimes doesn’t. More than that and it’s shaky. After your kids reach NMSF, you will need to fill out an application for NMF. NMSC looks at their grades, an essay, a recommendation from a teacher (or GC, I think), extracurriculars (though their space for them and awards is REALLY small), and your kids’ SAT score. You only have to get a 1960 to make the cut for NMF on the current SAT. Basically, if your kids have no or very few Cs on their transcripts, have at least a 1960 on the SAT, get a decent letter, write a decent essay, and don’t have anything bad from the school on them (disciplinary record, etc.), then they should make NMF. There are approximately 16,000 NMSF each year, and about 15,000 make NMF. Usually the ones that don’t have one of the things wrong above - too low of grades, forget to send SAT scores (you have to send NMSC the scores yourself, College Board does NOT do it for you), get in trouble in school, or writing a rude essay.
Anyways, there are colleges that offer full ride or similar scholarships for NMFs, if you name them as first choice on the application for NMF. (Don’t worry, you don’t have to decide that when you first fill out the app, you can change it online usually until around May 1 of senior year.) Some that come up on here a lot are University of Alabama, University of Oklahoma, and University of Kentucky. I know that UA and OU pay for tuition for 5 years with a bunch of other perks, except for room and board after the first year. Don’t know much about Kentucky. Still huge scholarships, though.
I am going to Wichita State University in Kansas, which offers a full ride for 4 years for NMF. OOS tution and fees, room, board, and stipend for books. The New Mexico flagship (University of New Mexico) offers a full ride too. USC offers a 1/2 tution award. There’s others too (Northeastern? Some place in Nebraska, I think?), though their awards may not be full ride. There’s a link, yolosite or something, with a full list of college that offer awards for NMF and what they are.
It’s a lot to take in and understand, I know. But it is a great opportunity with a lot of potential for scholarship money! Best of luck!
I have been watching this thread and have finally registered. I am anxiously awaiting news to learn whether my oldest child will make the cutoff in TX. With a 217, I suspect he will miss it by a point if your predictions are right @WRUAustin. I so appreciate your contributions to this forum. Oh, how I wish you would be off by a few tenths of a point though! I believe I saw that you had the TX cutoff for NMSF at 217.54? Oh so close! He only missed one on math and one on writing, but missed 6 on the reading section.
I thought I would share that I contacted National Merit Corp directly a few weeks ago to inquire about state cutoffs. I was not able to learn anything about those numbers, but did find out that today was the day they would release the Commended score cutoff to the high school principals nationwide. So, I thought, what the heck, and called back today to see if they’d tell me the Commended Cutoff Score. Guess what? They did, without hesitation. The commended score cutoff is 202 for the class of 2016. I haven’t seen that officially posted anywhere so I that I would register and share this for all who might be interested. I know this is true because I was told this directly from NMC’s scholarship office.
I thought I had heard that the state cutoffs were really known in the spring, but if that’s the case, no one is leaking those. Will it really be September before we know?!?!
If my son misses the NMSF cutoff, oh well. He has taken the SAT once and scored a 2240 (CR 740, M 730, W 770 - shocked once again, just like on PSAT that missing one of the high difficulty questions math can still drop the score in that section by so many points). Now he wants to take it again and get a perfect score. I’d like to think there will still be substantial scholarship opportunities for him with SAT scores like that, with or without that SF designation. We shall see…
Wow, so we have the commended cutoff score. Thanks @Msmomof2
A commended cutoff score of 202 is one higher than last year. In Post #251, I did a simple analysis of the commended scores. There really wasn’t much good data for it, but the data pointed to no change in the cutoff score or perhaps a one point decrease. I did say that that result did seem inconsistent with what we were seeing for the individual state cutoff score which mostly pointed to no change or a slight increase.
In any case, I’m glad to see that the commended cutoff score is below the score from 2012 when it was 203. So, at least for my son, this is good news. I don’t see the TX score rising above 219 (which is what my S scored). My best guess is still 218. I could be wrong and for @Msmomof2 's sake I hope I am high by a point.
Interesting data point. Thanks!
@Msmomof2 – We went through this with S14, who just missed the CA cutoff for NMSF/NMF status.
There absolutely positively will be all sorts of “substantial” merit scholarships available to your son. In the Parents’ Forum there are a couple of threads with lists of schools that give out substantial merit aid. And the schools that are most generous regarding NMF scholarships are typically generous for high academic achievers. Fr’instance, Alabama gives four years of out-of-state tuition for a M + CR SAT > 1400 and a 3.5 GPA. And there is a lot of merit money available at private universities. Here’s a list that might interest you:
http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/college/T014-S001-kiplinger-s-best-values-in-private-colleges/index.php?table=prv_univ&state_code=ALL&id=none&sortby=non_nb_aid_p&sortorder=DESC
(The next to last column, “% of non-need-based aid” is the fraction of students who receive merit scholarships).
My S16 took the SAT for the first time in December and had scores similar to your son’s. He re-took the test in March, and raised his scores by 60 points, including getting an 800 in Math after missing one question on the first try. No harm in your son re-taking the SAT. And you just gotta love his attitude, going for a perfect score.
My S14 received merit aid scholarships of $15K to 25K at all the private universities to which he was accepted, except for one. And you guessed it – he’s at the one school where we’re full-pay. .
That all said, fingers are crossed that the Texas cutoff is 217.
@Msmomof2 I will be crossing my fingers for you! We are also waiting here, as a 212 in Florida may or not make it. I expect not, but still have that little glimmer of hope! Hope to be celebrating with you in September, instead of venting in the “missed it by a point” thread. 
So will the commended students be notified before the semifinalist are announced? Just wondering if not getting commended means you reach semifinalist. New to this
This past year (class of 2015), we knew the commended cut at roughly this same time. However, students were not officially notified until late September. However, your school should receive a list of kids who are moving to the next stage, which basically just means at 202 or higher. The principal is asked to verify student status and the correct spelling of the students’ names. Homeschool families should get these letters at their house.
But yes, sadly, you have to wait until late August or early September for the state cut news. It starts trickling in via homeschooling families, and people start piecing together the data, and some can sometimes know before their school notifies them. It’s a crazy long wait, and sadly with the commended score up a point, it suggests scores in general will rise. Commended students will receive their official commendation notification about two weeks later, in mid to late September, after the big press release for semifinalists. Most should already know though by that point, so it’s a bit anti-climatic, especially for those who just miss the SF cut.
I’ve had a couple month break from my engineering work, but start back up tomorrow, so this is the last chance I may have time to obsess about this stuff, I hope. 
I went ahead and found the Texas public enrollment figures by grade and year. I had previously only used nominal growth rates to estimate the changing number of students. The good news is that it didn’t change my results much for Texas from what I had before. The change that it did make was in the right direction (better correlation). I still see TX cutoff as being 218 even with the 1 point increase in the commended cutoff. The commended cutoff is a good general guide, but the difference in cutoff scores minus commended varies a bit from year to year.
The class that took the 2013 test didn’t have much of a growth in numbers of students from the previous years class. This year’s class has a large increase in the number of students. So when accounting for the number of students, this year’s results are very similar to last year’s results. So, 218 remains the best TX guess. 217 and 219 would be equally surprising. 220 would be stunning and would break the curve.
@AsleepAtTheWheel My S14 cleared the super-high cutoff that year, but one of his good friends missed it by one point. And my S16 has gotten a score that puts him in a possible “just miss” position. I think @Msmomof2 is right that there are still loads of scholarship opportunities for high SAT scores. Especially if they have the grades to match (which my S16 doesn’t, but I love him anyway ).
Has anyone calculated the cutoff score for PA?
I ran the data I had been using for last year (that correctly predicted PA’s 216) and got 217 for PA.
If you’re right @PAMom21, then I scored exactly on the cutoff (217).
I really think you should be good @DominicBayer. 217 is the highest to date, and even if next year is a 217, I think it will be a “rounded 216”, if that makes sense. I doubt it would go as high as 218. Still, you’ll be sweating for the long haul. We were even with a few points of cushion. It goes with the territory. Best wishes!