@WRUAustin Ok, thanks anyway!
when are we going to know if we qualified for the scholarship?
I will assume you are asking when you will find out if your PSAT score was at or above the cutoff score for your state so that you qualify as a National Merit Semi-finalist. Officially, I believe that your will hear from your high school counselor around September 10. About a week before that, the cutoff scores should be available on this site.
thank you! @WRUAustin
I got a 212 on PSAT, live in Michigan. Will I be safe for the cut off to make semifinalist/finalist?
@WRUAustin
I would really appreciate an estimate for Kansas.
2014-15 / 96 / 137 / 97 / 8441
2013-14 / 105 / 156 / 72 / 8769
2012-13 / 119 / 140 / 128 / 9499
2011-12 / 95 / 77 / 109 / 10081
2010-11 / 125 / 136 / 144 / 10502
2009-10 / 88 / 112 / 66 / 9781
2008-09 /113 / 96 / 82 / 9950
The number of test takers for Kansas has declined for 4 straight years. I have the population generally increasing for the state, however. If the number of juniors is actually decreasing, then my predictions could be off. If it is important to you and you want to give me the number of juniors enrolled each year, I can give you a more accurate prediction (possibly).
Overall, if the population of enrolled juniors is actually increasing generally, then 213 is the most likely result. If the decline in the # of test takers is indicative of the number of juniors (also decreasing), then 214 is the most likely result. My best guess right now is 213 (which is no change from the previous year).
Thank you WRUAustin! I also noticed the decrease in KS test-takers, but I don’t know the explanation.
Another concern is that the 70-74 numbers seem to have increased significantly over last year; perhaps eclipsing (proportionately in CR and WS) two years ago when the cutoff for KS was 216. Could this trigger a cutoff higher than 215 (which was my son’s score)? Here are the numbers for 70-74:
2014-15 / 351 / 266 / 235 / 8441
2013-14 / 202 / 320 / 249 / 8769
2012-13 / 391 / 248 / 264 / 9499
2011-12 / 279 / 346 / 108 / 10081
2010-11 / 176 / 236 / 113 / 10502
2009-10 / 287 / 267 / 240 / 9781
2008-09 /283 / 264 / 201 / 9950
In general, and also specifically with Kansas, the goodness of fit (R2) is significantly worse when the 70-74 numbers are included. So, I do not consider them a good measure unless the state is a low scoring state. Kansas is kind of a midrange sort of state. I think the high 70-74 numbers may explain why the commended score rose by 1 point this year. I found the enrollment numbers for Kansas here: http://ipsr.ku.edu/ksdata/ksah/education/6ed1b.pdf.
What it shows is consistent with what I saw in Texas. This most recent year’s junior enrollment is high, especially when compared to last year when it was low. I guess times were good in 1997 when these babies were conceived. 
After including these numbers in the correlation, My best guess is still 213. The actual prediction is 212.7. Excluding the previous years numbers and running it, would have predicted 213 (213.2) as well (which is what it turned out to be). I think your S is in pretty good shape. No guarantees, of course.
Thanks again, WRUAustin! That is good news!
Do you have a link to an official commended score for this class, or are you just predicting a one point rise in the commended score?
Someone earlier in this thread confirmed it with the organization and perhaps also with a high school counselor.
202 for this year. 201 for class of 2015 and 203 for class of 2014.
Everyone keeps posting numbers, what numbers must I provide in order to get an estimate for Michigan?
@Klettinator … I can’t speak to the statistical analyses done by @WRUAustin on this thread (there’s a reason I referred to the class as “sadistics” when I had to take it many moons ago ~X( ) but I can tell you that your score is one point above the highest cutoff ever in Michigan. Nothing in the scores from students who tested last fall show any indication of significant increases over the previous year’s cutoffs. While nothing will be official until NMSC releases the cutoff scores in September, I would say with a high degree of confidence that you will be named a Semifinalist. Both of our daughters were NMFs in Michigan (Class of '11 and Class of '15) so I’ve followed the scores fairly closely for the last several years. My suggestion to you would be to expect to be notified in September of SF status, and if any of the large “unofficial” NM scholarship schools interest you (UKentucky, UCF, Bama, Oklahoma, etc.) start researching and/or visiting those schools to at least line up some safety schools. Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched…but I think you should be confident enough to at least do some planning while awaiting official words in the fall. Congrats!!
My son score at 224 in CA. Does he have any chance for SF status?
Maximum historical CA cutoff has been 223. Last year’s cutoff was 222 and my expectation is for a cutoff of 222 (or perhaps 223) based on calculations. So, I think your son stands a very good chance.
WRUAstin, I saw your comment about DC (a poster gave you the numbers you need) and wanted to ask you if you have any insights on the drop of cutoffs in 2010 and 2013 (in both years it was 221) from the usual 224 in most years. Thank you!
@Wolverine86 - thank you for the insight. I’m also thinking Michigan will stay constant at 210, or maybe go back down to 207. Is there any advantage to being a finalist over a semifinalist (other than obvious reasons)? I know that they look at things other than the PSAT score to get to being a finalist, and with a solid GPA and AP classes I’m hoping that maybe I could be a finalist as well. The only schools I’m trying to get into are U-M, Stanford, and MIT, with a 99% chance going to Michigan. So, the money thing probably won’t help me a ton, but maybe it will look good on the resume and provide an opportunity for a scholarship.
@ReminiscingDad and @didierdrogba
I took a closer look at DC’s results. The one confounding year was last year. If I throw out that data point, the correlation is pretty good (even with the low population and the low spread in cutoff numbers). So, the two 221 cutoff years do have a low level of scores in the 75-80 range as would be expected. Throwing out that one bad year, the predictions based on the correlation would be for a cutoff of 223.6. Since the past 2 years have been 224, that is consistent (from other states) with seeing results that are showing no new highs and being similar to last year.
I believe the qualifying SAT score to go to finalist is 1980