College admissions chances- U of M

What do you think my chances of getting into the university of Michigan are?

GPA: 4.0uw 4.5w
PSAT: 1370 (haven’t taken sat yet)
AP: APUSH 5; taking stats, calc, macro Econ, and gov this year and next year
EC: debate(team captain); National Honor society (officer); marching band; tennis; community service; recycling club

So, what do you think my odds are?

In state or out? Major or school?

In state and majoring in math/actuarial science

In state majoring in math/ actuarial science