Agreed CU123. Close to that point at Yale, Princeton and MIT too. Maybe 2% for unhooked.
@CU123 is completely correct. If the colleges were more transparent their application numbers would go down. And massive numbers of unhooked kids would choose their REA/ED slot in a T20-35 school instead.
@SJ2727 you misunderstood my point; One can suggest ED/ED1 has some benefit to both the student and the school (although IMO the school always benefits more). ED/ED1 may give some acceptance benefit but because the student in theory can be accepted at least 2-3 weeks before other deadlines does not have to apply to any schools RD and can save the $85 cost of each application. ED2 is a creation that benefits the school much more than the kid, since anyone applying ED2 still has to fill out RD applications at $85 a pop to other places due to timing of finding out the acceptance result from ED2.
@anon145 Well I’m not sure the numbers would go down that much, after all massive numbers of people buy lottery tickets based on odds that are 1/500 million. Still you are correct in that more and more unhooked applicants are seeing the writing on the wall and taking there chances at ED schools. This is a trend that will continue at least for those who have a logical method for applying to top schools.
It would help if the college comparison websites (Niche, College data …) included some subjective analysis in their ‘will you get in’ data. For example, if Niche tells you that you have better stats than 38% of the people that were accepted in the previous year, then you probably have a decent shot but if you are below 30%, you will probably lose out to all the students with hooks.
This way, instead of going all in on ED with a school that’s a reach, you could choose the best school that’s only a slight reach or a good match where would prefer not to compete against the RD volume.
Yep, I’m one of those in the “so you’re telling me that I still have a chance” crowd. 
And @anon145 you missed my point, which is that it’s the kid’s choice to do that. The kid is well aware that s/he has to send in other applications still for ED2. Kid’s choice, not school imposing anything.
@T20hopeful2023 “For example, if Niche tells you that you have better stats than 38% of the people that were accepted in the previous year, then you probably have a decent shot but if you are below 30%, you will probably lose out to all the students with hooks.”
Why do you need niche, most if not all colleges publish the middle 50 scores on their website so you can do a similar analysis from that?
Academic excellence is all relative. What’s considered sufficiently “academically excellent” at one school may not be sufficient at another. I do agree, however, unhooked applicants have vastly lower odds of admission than their hooked counterparts, and those odds aren’t reflected in the admit rates.
@SJ2727 A lot of these sites will combine your test scores, GPA, demographics, AP coursework … to give a % chance of getting in. These are fine but it would be helpful if they made the effort to estimate what the floor is for non-hook applicants. Not pointing fingers at anyone but these can sometimes give people false hopes about getting into certain schools.
@T20hopeful2023 yes. this data will never be provided. how many unhooked kids do you think get into harvard with ACTs below 33? they will never reveal this data or apps would plummet. It’s like someone buying a lottery ticket knowing someone else already knows the winning numbers…
@1NJParent I’m defining academic excellence as 35/36 ACT all As. It’s not an accident that all the top20 schools have ~ 25% of their classes with 36 ACTs. check out the common data sets. These schools seem to be all conforming/approaching to that 25/75%tile upper number of 1/4 perfect scores. (meaning they can pick and choose how many of those kids they want).
@T20hopeful2023 "A lot of these sites will combine your test scores, GPA, demographics, AP coursework "… but will that will only be of those who contribute to the sites, not the entire student body? Some but not all that data is available on CDS. If it’s not official and representative of the whole intake, I don’t think it is reliable. And it’s still not the whole picture anyway. I could give you 2 examples of unhooked 25th percentile applicants, one ivy one T30, who got in, on factors that Niche would not or could not capture. Holistic really is a lot more than a few boxes that get checked. It would certainly help if those ED admits were broken down into athlete/legacy/donor/URM/unhooked to get what yiu’d be after, but that’s not going to happen.
You guys overstate how strong these hooks are. Hooked applicants with high stats get rejected at very high rates as well.
@T20hopeful2023 my guess is a good 5,000 (or more) that got rejected from Rice had the test scores and grades. I think it is much more than that. That is why on all these elite threads you see everyone scratching their heads when they see students with equal or less grades getting in. I think that is what makes the next class still think they have a chance, that they have great grades, scores, EC’s, great LOR, and they think they actually have a shot.
I am very thankful I live in California and my daughter has offers from many great UC’s. it makes all the rejections form private schools not sting so much!
yep if you live in Ca, MI, VA, NC etc… support your schools of higher learning. They take in classes of 4,000 kids plus. the Ivies and others create artificial scarcity and have no desire in educating the country. Support those public flagships. the 5-8% acceptance rate at T20 schools is actually much worse when you figure 50% of the slots plus are not even eligible to 98% of the applicants.
I would say we would possibly learn more about selectivity by seeing the basic profile and breakdown of applications that were —rejected!
How many are really competitive? How many are students throwing a Hail Mary or odd humble brag of just saying they applied somewhere? Or don’t know any better and the name is appealing? This could drive an admission rates down and say nothing really, in and of itself.
But it’s trested like the holy grail of selectivity. And it’s really just a guess.
Or if the rejected group is very strong it would tell us even more. Imagine the rejected pool looking nearly as good statistically, or god forbid better? Maybe those institutional needs drive down the statistical numbers and the reject pile is very strong.
I just don’t know. I am guessing at the vast majority of apps that aren’t selected.
That’s where the real story is for planning and expectation building.
As an example. Emory and BC have nearly identical sat and act scores for this year class. 1470ish avg and 33avg. Bc has a lot more elite athletes to get through the door and Emory has a lower admissions rate. Which is the tougher ticket. Not that matters. Just an example. I would say the students are equally impressive academics but with much different interests etc.
To me, it’s just as important to see I how deep the quality was, not just the total numbers.
And I would examine who didn’t get in - in bands showing numbers of applications in each correspond to their relative statistical strength.
@privatebanker
Why don’t you just transfer to Emory, would save you the stress of constant comparison. Emory is more holistic in its admissions than it’s peers meaning more emphasis is on EC’s and essays. Emory is more diverse than its peers. Emory is one-third (32%) URM (non- Asian minority) and 20% Pell grant students. URM and Pell students typically have lower scores than there non URM, non Pell counterparts, yet Emory is still able to keep its avg high. This year it being a 33 with a 34 median. Which medians are more informative than means, half the class has a 34 or higher. Emory also doesn’t superscore the ACT like BC does so for Emory that’s a 34 flat. That’s more impressive considering the amount of students who historically don’t do well on these tests. That means Emory is able to find the ones that are able to do well, so I know for certain BC (or schools like BC) is still not as selective as Emory.
Ah. I would love to go to Emory. If I was only so lucky!
But I am 50 and have an MBA from Wharton already. And I have to pay for college for a kid and it requires me to sit in a darn office everyday.
FYI I only used Emory because you just posted the stats and it stood out. And it was a directional question. Not a criticism. Emory is the Queen of the South. It’s super elite. And I also mentioned that it doesn’t matter.
Don’t take it personally. Think of the bigger question I was asking. I would like to hear what you think on the idea. You make a lot of good points and have a recent student’s perspective.
@privatebanker don’t be so dismissive I think you should consider going to Emory;)
Hah. I would go in a heartbeat. And I wouldn’t miss one tailgate party either !