<p>Oregon played UCLA with a back-up QB and won - I don’t think that fans of the Pac-10’s deepest team should really be using the loss of an inexperienced starter as justification for losing to a patently inferior opponent.</p>
<p>I don’t think people really need to discuss Oregon-USC anyways. Everything will be determined this Saturday. If USC is really as good as we say we are, then we’ll win. If Oregon is as good as they want people to think, then they will beat us. As simple as that. And if it’s a close game, well then both teams are playing great!</p>
<p>The inexperience thing is subjective, the difference is that Matt Barkley currently is ranked #1 in the pac-10 in passing efficiency(148.7) and passing yards per game (256.7)</p>
<p>To give some perspective on that, he’s just behind Colt McCoy who is currently passing 258.0 yards per game…</p>
<p>Also, losing Taylor Mays was a huge blow…</p>
<p>Of course, again, not that I’m trying to make excuses…USC had plenty of missed opportunities/mistakes in that game that were totally independent of Barkley/Mays…</p>
<p>amciw,</p>
<p>I am not a “fan” of USC. I didn’t go there. In fact, when I uncovered its “accounting” error for USN engineering ranking, some USC fans thought I was a ■■■■■. I am just giving my honest opinion here. We were discussing if that loss was a “fluke”. Was the team against UW without Barkley the same USC team in all other games?</p>
<p>While my post was in response to yours, I wasn’t implying you were the only one suggesting that USC excuse their loss as the result of not having Barkley.</p>
<p>With that said, as long as it established and accepted that the loss of Barkley (and Mays, if you so desire) hurt, but should not have resulted in their loss, I will withhold further comment on the issue and allow the teams to settle the debate on the field at Autzen Stadium.</p>
<p>I guess that debate is settled. If Masoli’s knee holds up over the next month, USC’s Pac-10 streak is over.</p>
<p>Yet continuing the strangest streak in college football…since 2005, USC 0-4 in the state of Oregon, 40-3 outside.</p>
<p>Well, everyone quietly knew that this would be the closest thing Pete Carroll has had to a rebuilding year - losing Mark Sanchez, almost the whole defense, most of the coaching staff, etc…</p>
<p>What on earth happened to Oregon in Boise? I still think it’s unfair to have that blue field - anything that nonstandard throws the visiting team off…</p>
<p>How is that unfair? Its bad ass. Its called home field advantage for a reason.</p>
<p>Masoli was awesome that game, he looked better than Tebow this week!</p>
<p>Texas is going to the National Championship game!!!</p>
<p>^^^Where they will be beaten like a drum.</p>
<p>
Wasn’t even close. Oregon’s offense in the third quarter was some of the best football I’ve seen lately.</p>
<p>Time for “where does USC end up now?”</p>
<p>You need to be in the top-14 and have at least 9 wins to go to a BCS bowl. If Oregon goes to the national championship game, the #2 pac-10 team will probably go to the rose bowl. Otherwise, a 10-2 USC could be an attractive option for a different BCS bowl. If not, it’s the Holiday Bowl against a big-12 team.</p>
<p>I still like USC’s chances to go 10-2, since by far the toughest part of their schedule is behind them (sagarin says 5th toughest schedule in the country)</p>
<p>I don’t think Oregon’s going to jump an undefeated Boise State, and I don’t think Boise State’s going to lose (hardest game left is Idaho), so I very much doubt Oregon will reach the national championship game. </p>
<p>That leaves 4 other spots: one for the SEC runner-up, one for Boise State, one for TCU if they win out, and one for … almost certainly USC (as long as they win out). It wouldn’t be too shocking to see USC trip up again though.</p>
<p>i’d say:</p>
<p>championship: Florida vs Texas
Rose: Oregon vs Iowa
Sugar: Bama vs Penn St
Orange: GT vs Cincy
Fiesta: TCU vs Boise St</p>
<p>I don’t see how Boise gets into a BCS game at all, unless TCU gets upset.</p>
<p>The BCS is only forced to take one non-BCS team that qualifies automatically. It’s left for an individual BCS bowl to decide then that taking another non-BCS team over a top-14 BCS team makes sense financially (i.e. bigger TV audience, fans travel) which is going to be unlikely.</p>
<p>Oregon will jump Boise eventually. They already have a respectable lead in the computers (.810 to .750) and that difference will only grow as the computers punish Boise’s schedule. As long as Oregon keeps winning, the voters will move them up as teams above them fall - and unless voter decides to respect the head-to-head, they won’t do the same for Boise.</p>
<p>I just can’t see voters not respecting the head to head match up. They make some strange decisions sometimes, but there’s no way they’ll be able to bump Oregon without a public backlash.</p>
<p>I think it might make financial sense for the Fiesta Bowl to choose Boise State over Penn State, and I would be surprised if the Sugar Bowl wanted Penn St over USC.</p>
<p>jbusc,</p>
<p>I am thinking if Iowa somehow ends up right behind Texas in the human poll, it could jump Texas in BCS ranking. They got good computer score and they still have ohio state to play. Texas’ schedule is going downhill from now on. Do you agree?</p>
<p>But to get to #3 in human poll, it needs to not just a win but a blowout against Ohio State.</p>
<p>Usually Texas gets a boost because of the big-12 championship game, but not if the big-12 north champ ends up being (say) Kansas State. Undefeated Iowa will probably finish ahead of undefeated Texas in the computers.</p>
<p>The computers won’t love Iowa unconditionally, though. Not only them beating Ohio State, but Arizona beat USC or Oregon would probably help them stay high in the computers.</p>
<p>Iowa would probably have to be right behind Texas in the human polls to have a shot, considering the 2/3 weight the BCS gives to human polls and how high people think of Texas right now.</p>
<p>Iowa won’t be in the National Championship game. I don’t see them winning out. They don’t exactly have the toughest schedule left, but I would not be surprised if Ohio State or Minnesota finds a way to beat them. Iowa has not been consistent this year and they seem to find a way to pull it out. I don’t see them blowing out Ohio State as Sam Lee thinks they need. Is it safe to say that Florida or Alabama will be in the national championship?</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Almost. There are three cases to consider:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Florida suffers a late-season breakdown, loses two games, and recovers to win the SEC championship. Neither will get in to the title game. Unlikely.</p></li>
<li><p>LSU beats Alabama, then beats Florida in an SEC championship rematch. Then LSU is in the title game. Unlikely but possible.</p></li>
<li><p>Florida loses once (or Bama loses to someone other than LSU) and then beats the other in the SEC championship game. Very possible.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>In the 3rd case, the human polls will definitely put Florida/Alabama in the title game. Since it is strongly suspected that the computers weight wins toward the end of the season more (which, if so, would be an unfair advantage to the SEC/Big-12/ACC, IMHO) the computers will not rank Florida/Bama low enough to override the human polls.</p>
<p>Conclusion: it is extremely likely the SEC champion will be in the national championship game.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>no. Have you seen a Minnesota game this year?</p>