<p>Maybe I'm just ranting. Oh well, here goes. A smart person is a risk averse person. So far college has a 50% chance of paying off. You should never invest in something with such low chances period. If you studied statistics, you know what I'm talking about. 50% is incredibly huge. As a comparison, for an elective procedure, a surgeon wouldn't consider operating if there's even a 1% chance of something seriously bad happening. If 1% is huge, then 50% is just dangerous. Anyways, back on topic, the 50% is regarding the average graduate. It depends on the person. College is only worth it if you know for certain that you are going to get a profitable return. That is you major in something in which you know for sure you will get a job immediately upon graduation. This is a big decision. You can't go by gut feeling on this. You can't say, "oh im smart enough, ill just major in something i like and see what happens". Do the research and determine if the path you are following leads to good results. If there isn't enough data to show that the path is bad, ditch it anyway, you need data that PROVES its good. Also, hindsight isn't 20/20. Just because a field is hot now, doesn't mean it will be in the future. Keep that in mind as well. I'm not saying drop out, but rather to be meticulously cautious and not take out stupid loans. Be risk averse.</p>
<p>So let’s pretend you don’t go to college. What are your chances looking like now? You might be able to get hired by Target or something…</p>
<p>Yeah, unless you have a plan for what you’ll do without a college degree, going to college is still a very smart move, depending on major and debt incurred.</p>
<p>Yea a bachelor’s degree today is almost what a high school degree used to be (excluding some of the more technical degrees like cs, engineering). A greater supply of college graduates has driven down their wages, but also really affected what somebody with only a high school degree can make. Since so many people are going to college, if you’re not, it’s almost like you’re a failure and deserve to be paid accordingly. At the same time, the higher demand for college degrees and easy access to loans is quickly increasing the cost. </p>
<p>I definitely think this country shouldn’t push college on everyone so much and instead follow Europe’s model of supporting trade schools and other options more. Or at least limit the ridiculous amount of loans to those pursuing degrees which will offer opportunities in the future.</p>
<p>Not really raven, there are still plenty of jobs that don’t care if you went to college. Chipotle, Burger King etc. Heck, I used to do hiring at a burger joint and I didn’t care if someone went to college, sometimes I might just pick the high school kid since I know he’s more likely to stay. </p>
<p>Everyone else, recognize that there’s a 50% chance that the degree won’t pay off, meaning you’ll be back at square one. JessicaW, there’s a 50% chance that you might have to work at a place like target if you blindly get a degree.</p>
<p>recoverchat, frankly, going to college without a very clear and full proof plan, it’s only a smart move if you’re going full ride and have a job on the side. Or if you’re rich enough, then it doesn’t even matter anyways.</p>
<p>Would you go to Vegas, throw down 40K out of your pocket to only have a 50% of getting 80K. No right? Heck, if I had 40K in my pocket, I wouldn’t even throw it down to have a 50% of getting 500K. 500K is luxury, but 40K is a necessity. If people thought in those terms, it’s pretty clear what is going on.</p>
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<p>People do that all the time when they play roulette. Heck, they don’t even have a 50% chance because of 0 and 00.</p>
<p>You’re not looking at intangible factors, such as finding a good fit for employment, not just starting salary. If you want few possibilities except to waiver between temp jobs your whole life, by all means don’t go to college. Yeah you can work at burger king. Well i sure don’t want to. You’re also generalizing to an extreme by not factoring in the value of specific degrees at specific colleges. They’re not all the same. I think you’re also dismissing the college experience, which is hard to find elsewhere. Also there are plenty who take out no loans at all, so that kind of renders the “investment” angle irrelevant.</p>
<p>@RacinReaver. Gambling is a bad habit.</p>
<p>@Steellord, I know I didn’t. I’m talking about the people that blindly get a degree without knowing what they want to do. Sure if you’re going to MIT for computer science, you probably can say that your plan is full proof. But that really doesn’t hold for the average person. Fact is, half of new grads end up in jobs that don’t even require a college degree, jobs in which they probably fought hard for by having to explain in every interview that they’re not likely to jump compared to high school grads.</p>
<p>I guess I would rather gamble on myself (frugal education costs) and hope my education would pay off versus the alternative of not having any higher education… Unless you are a renaissance type person or an entrepreneur and then you can be intelligent by educating yourself in a variety of areas and/or figuring out your own business plan to make a living. All of these scenarios are possible.</p>
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<p>Every decision in life is a gamble. ;)</p>
<p>But it isn’t 50%, it depends on the person.</p>
<p>i think its pretty simple. you invest in something that has high chance of being a positive outcome. in this case would be get your undergrad then go to grad school such as law school or dental school. have you seen these guys salaries? sure you could still fail but only if you didnt put 110% in it. Plus things with low chances still can pay off if you put your all in it. Look at rappers, those people are freakin hundred millionnaries. Look at donald trump, hes a billionaire bc he put his all in it.</p>
<p>@Equipotential</p>
<p>“frankly, going to college without a very clear and full proof plan, it’s only a smart move if you’re going full ride and have a job on the side”</p>
<p>That’s why I said “depending on major and debt incurred”. I understand why college may not sound like the greatest option. Some students major in something unsuitable, wracking up a huge debt, and then they end up working in retail or something anyway.</p>
<p>However, I believe that most people, if they think about what they want to do in the future and maybe try for scholarships, should definitely go to college. I am very uncomfortable with, “Just don’t go to college,” as general advice. </p>
<p>Mistakenly enrolling without a good plan/major is bad–but in our times, not going to college means you better have an even stronger plan for how your future’s going to go without a degree. Not having one can really limit your options.</p>
<p>I would still advise a prospective student to go to college, but to choose a strong major and seek financial aid whenever possible.</p>
<p>You can’t make comparisons between surgery and investment. Those are two completely different things. The magnititude that a risk percentage carries in something like surgery is WAAAY more prominent than investment payoff percentages, we are talking about health here. You can’t make that comparison.</p>
<p>Beyond that, it is not a static percentage that you can just assign to everyone. The chances of flipping heads on a quarter is always 50%. That is static and will never change regardless of how many times you flip the coin. The chances of college paying off are dependent on factors like natural ability, work ethic, connections, setting, financial stability, school quality, initiative. </p>
<p>All of which are unique from person to person.</p>
<p>@Hazy, probably not. That’s why the threshold is much lower in surgery, like .001 or something. But money is such an important part of a person’s life too. Even if we specify our threshold for the investment to be 100 times greater, we would be at 10%, certainly not anywhere close to 50%. What do I think about this? I think you should not put down any significant portion of your cash unless you have at least a 90% chance of getting a positive return. That’s me being generous. You are also forgetting, it’s not just investment that’s on the line. People’s mental health are too. If you can only get a basic Starbucks job right out of college, you lose much more than just your time and investment. You’ll feel sad and depressed. Your self-esteem would plummet to levels much lower than if you simply worked for Starbucks out of high school. It could get bad enough such that the physical health suffers too. It’s not a pretty picture. </p>
<p>I know its not static, and varies from person to person. But if you can’t be sure of a very high chance of success, don’t invest. simple. </p>
<p>@recover, I not trying to tell everyone not to go. I’m trying to say that only the very motivated and likely to be successful should go. </p>
<p>@michgan and bark, you still need a very high chance of success of justify putting that much time and money into it. Like over 90%.</p>
<p>@racin, true but the most important thing is damage control. The loss from failing is much greater than the gain from succeeding.</p>
<p>i have a feeling you just want to argue. fact is nothing is guarantee so this argument is ignorant. going to law school or dental school, etc is about the highest chance you are going to get. if you dont want to go to come to college, go to detroit. have fun.c</p>
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<p>Yes, they would. And they do.</p>
<p>Michigan, I think you are putting words in my mouth. I’ve only said high rate of return, not guarantee. My whole point is this: You shouldn’t invest in things with bad rate of returns. If you don’t care about low rates, why not just withdraw from your savings and head to the casino? </p>
<p>Is it really so unreasonable to only invest when there is a high chance of return?</p>
<p>JeSuis, I’ve had two surgeries so I think I know what I’m talking about. The surgeons told me that they wouldn’t operate unless the conditions are perfect and that i have an extremely high chance of success. They told me that I had less than 1/1000 chance dying or being seriously injured and had a less than 1/100 chance of the surgery not being successful. If a surgeon regularly does surgeries when there’s a 1% chance of death, he would be killing about 3 people every year. Just imagine, “Expert surgeon, 25 years of experience” well that guy caused 75 deaths lol. Seriously, they would only operate with a chance as high as 1% if there was an extremely serious condition such as deadly cancer or whatnot.</p>
<p>College is always profitable if you know where the money is. Perhaps I’m biased coming from a family of medical professionals, but I feel the medical field is underestimated. At my university I’ll never understand why so many students are interested in business or useless majors like Women’s Studies (no sexism) or Philosophy or something down that line. It’s like, you already know you’re not going to get a job with a Women’s Studies degree (or at least a decent-paying one), so why spend thousands of dollars and years of studying on attaining that degree? </p>
<p>An MBA is somewhat profitable, but I’ve never been interested in going that route because these careers are just so soul-draining. The long hours, taking work and projects home, the constant deadlines and competition…just…No. I don’t plan on working for somebody else or sitting in a cubicle until I’m 65. Most jobs in the medical field, you clock in, you do your work, still get paid a high salary, and then you GO HOME. The hospital could burn down and you wouldn’t know it until you came back your next shift.</p>
<p>But like I said, maybe I’m just biased. lol</p>