College Waitlists in 2022 -- possibilities or pipedreams?

They also want a balance of males and females, which can affect the acceptance rate based on if they tend to have more of one gender than the other apply.

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Yes, thatā€™s the math, although I assume that 200/140 number is just hypothetical? Not all d3 schools have such a defined recruiting process as the NESCAC schools.

Sticking with you example, after accounting for the fully supported athletes, you also have to back out other hooked candidates like legacy, Posse/Questbridge students, and URMs to get at how many spots might be available to an unhooked student. Then take half for gender.

Maybe pick a school like Middlebury and work thru the actual numbersā€¦the 60 fully supported athletes, 30 Posse students, make assumptions for legacy and URMs. And not to make it more complicated but at some of the D3s, again taking the NESCACs, there are also recruits who only get ā€˜softā€™ coach support who also apply ED, so they have less of a chance of admittance than a fully supported athlete, but more than an unhooked applicant.

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Yes - I was just using round numbers to work out how that might look in the way you described with recruits and ED stats.

(Sound of my head repeatedly hitting the deskā€¦in pattern of despair)

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You are asking the right question. When you back athletes and other hooked applicants out of the ED admit rates, some of the ED luster is definitely dulled.

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You are asking the right question. No, itā€™s not so much easier to get in ED although the numbers suggest that if you donā€™t do the deeper dive into who is in that pool. If a school is taking 50% of the class ED, it is taking virtually all its athletes, its whole questbridge/posse cohort, and its legacy/major donor students in that group. If 30% of the class is recruited athletes, you can quickly see how few of the seats are left.

BUT, and this is important, with the unpredictability in predicting yield that AOs have, ED plays a really important role in building out the class. To be able to offer the ā€œI will comeā€ with the ā€œplease take meā€ can be of value to the college. You may become part of what fills out the classics, music, male, whatever buckets.

If you have a clear frontrunner and have a reasonably shot, stats wise, ED can be a smart strategy. A friend who runs the CC office at a boarding school said they highly encourage this. And if you need FA, make sure you run the NPC first ā€“ and if you can afford the number it spits out, feel free to apply ED.

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Only kids who have ever gotten HYP from my DCs school are recruited athletes. They are generally B+ students and test optional has made it even easier for them.

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When you consider the competition these athletes were up against when vying for a fully supported coachā€™s slot, it isnā€™t ā€˜easyā€™ whether submitting test scores or not. Thousands of athletes contact the coaches/are evaluated by the coaches for these spots ever year. Itā€™s likely that the recruited athlete acceptance/success rate is also in the single digitsā€¦ not dissimilar to the overall acceptance rate.

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Perhaps. Athletes getting into the Ivy League with B grades still feels off to me. Also, many of these athletes need parents able to fund the high cost of elite high school athletics and recruiting.

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If Iā€™m reading your example correctly it sounds like youā€™re assuming a 100% acceptance for athletes. 60 for 60. Iā€™m not sure thatā€™s a safe assumption. If false, it would mean a higher acceptance for ED non athletes. Food for thought.

Probably time to get back to the topic at hand, which is waitlists.

Wondering which schools people have first hand knowledge of that have gone to waitlist.

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In addition to the schools I listed above a couple of weeks ago, counselors on various communications channels have reported waitlist movement at Virginia Tech, Wash U, UCLA, Case, cal poly slo, U of SC. UC Irvine CC thread (and Reddit) report waitlist movement.

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I saw JMU had some movement on itā€™s waitlist from Reddit and dcurbanmom.

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I think JMU is still taking apps. Many less selective schools are still taking apps even if they arenā€™t on the NACAC list of colleges with openings (many schools arenā€™t NACAC members either).

Where did you see that about JMU still talking applications, @Mwfan1921 ? That is surprising. They had the highest number of applications this year ever, over 30,000.

They may not be anymore, one would have to call and ask.

My son got a waitlist offer from Vanderbilt the other day; it was for Blair School of Music, but I think the waitlist letter was the same wording everyone gets. The phrasing was something like, ā€œif you are still interested and plan to attend Vanderbilt in the fallā€¦ā€ with a yes or no link to click. So they donā€™t straight up demand that you tell them youā€™ll say yes or anything, but theyā€™d clearly rather only send official offers to sure things. Since his came in April, he still has until May 1 to decide.

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so your son got off the WL already?

Yesā€¦but things are different in the music school; theyā€™re working with tiny numbers of students in each instrument.

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Class of '20 had special circumstances. Many international students had to defer or make other plans because of COVID affecting the visa process (and this varied by region). Schools with large international admits went to WL to fill those spots.

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Someone on CC posted about Gonzaga taking kids off the waitlist already.

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