<p>Could someone explain to me in laymans terms the problems w/ Russian troops and invading Georgia, and how even though they say they are going to move out, they are actually moving further in. Every article I read is so chalk full of info that I don't exactly understand what is going on...but really want to understand and be able to discuss it w/ others. Any summaries, links to good recent articles that might be more comprehendable, etc...</p>
<p>Anyone got any predictions about what is going to happen in the future or what will result from Russia's claim to withdraw troops? Will it really work...I'm skeptical.
Thanks.</p>
<p>The Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have been virtually independent since the 1990's, but recently there's been a lot more separatist sentiment there, and in August the Georgia brought in their military to try and suppress the separatists. Since South Ossetia and Abkhazia both have high numbers of ethnic Russians (and many people with dual citizenship with both Russia and Georgia), Russia brought in their military in response to protect the people of the breakaway regions, but the Russians not only occupied those regions, but made inroads into Georgia and did a lot of damage that really didn't need to be done. Then, since the Georgian army was so thoroughly defeated that they had no hope of reclaiming the breakaway regions, Russia unilaterally (i.e. all-by-herself) recognized the independence of the Republic of South Ossetia and the Republic of Abkhazia. The international community has since condemned Russia's disrespect for Georgia's territorial integrity and for its use of excessive force--it claimed "self-defense," but it went beyond that and attacked beyond the Georgian border.</p>
<p>The situation is problematic, because it has scared states not only bordering Russia, but only many other ex-Soviet states, like Poland. Also, because Russia is such a large provider of the EU's oil (around 1/3 comes from Russia, I think), European leaders are hesitant to put sanctions on Russia. The conflict also sets a dangerous precedent for Ukraine, which currently owns the Crimean peninsula--which has a large number of ethnic Russians and a major seaport for the Russian navy--so the Ukrainians are understandably worried that the Russians may attempt to retake the Crimea by force. This has in turn raised discussion of NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the pact established between America and Western Europe to protect themselves from the USSR) moving eastwards to add states like Georgia and Ukraine. Russia sees NATO's eastward movement as a sign of distrust from the West, and is obviously offended.</p>
<p>In short, the conflict represents the Russian government's mentality that it can do whatever it wants and no one will stop them, which is enormously dangerous for the world, and not only for the more obvious reasons. This could be the beginnings of another Cold War, and we all know that that is a possibility we would all like to avoid.</p>
<p>zamzam covered most of the situation, I would just like to add on that this might also makes the West look like hypocrites to the Russians because we had no problem with territorial integrity when it was Serbia, a Russian ally, that was losing the land (Kosovo situation earlier this year).</p>
<p>As well this was not a random event because Georgia's push to join NATO has angered Russia and the most likely reason for the full out assault on Georgia trying to show that it is too unstable to join.</p>