Deferral-Acceptance Ratio?

<p>What is Chicago's Deferral-Acceptance ratio?
I'm deferred, and Chicago is my top choice, so I really would like to get admitted in RD.
But majority of people say that being deferred is an automatic guaranteed rejection in RD, and thankfully, very few minority say exactly opposite (i.e. being deferred WILL guarantee your acceptance).
I do want to believe the latter, but since more people say the former, what exactly is the ratio of acceptance for deferred applicant?
Does anyone know?</p>

<p>I certainly don't know, and I don't think anybody outside the admissions office does. What's more, because of uncertainty about the effect of Harvard and Princeton withdrawing from EA, even if you knew last year's answer it might not be a very good guide to what will happen this year.</p>

<p>But I do know this: Both answers you give above are wrong. Many people who are deferred are accepted in the spring, but nothing like most of them. I don't know whether it's 10%, or 20%, or 33%, but it's likely somewhere in that range.</p>

<p>If you think about it, why would they bother deferring you if there wasn't a meaningful chance they would accept you in the spring? Deferrals mean more work for them, and it's not like anyone thinks that they feel good to the students who have been deferred. If you look at the profiles of kids who have been deferred this year, it is awfully easy to conclude that they are absolutely, 100% serious candidates for admission in the spring.</p>

<p>I have heard (second or third hand by now) that it is around 20% for previous years, though it is likely to be higher this year.</p>