Do I really have no chance at Emory?

I think you’re a high match or low reach for Emory because your GPA is a bit low.

I think you’re more of a true match at Oxford. If you’d strongly prefer Emory College over Oxford College for those first two years (correct me if i’m wrong on that, Emory folks), then you have to decide whether the increase in chances of graduating with an Emory degree would be worth what you’d perceive yourself giving up by starting at Oxford.

If, on the other hand, you wouldn’t mind starting at Oxford, and if the $$ works out, by all means apply to Oxford.