UCB, I meant the best we can predict for solid applicants is 50-50. Sorry my wording confused.
@Kayak24 , it helps to try to wrap your head around day after day of top stats kids with rigor and some “good” ECs. This is one reason I advocate understanding the rest the tops look for. The scores need to hit a mark, but that’s not 35-36. This “rest” is often the reason so many top stats kids don’t get the nod, when you look at, eg, the inner admit details S shows.
When chance-me kids say they have strong ECs, I usually wonder what those are. (It’s not just about leader titles or “passions”) When they claim a good personal statement, I wonder how on target. Adcoms at top colleges aren’t just looking at composite, subs matter, depending on possible major. And on CC, we can’t guess how the LoRs will read (and if from the relevant teachers.) Or the interview summary.
It’s ridiculous. If they’re looking for a type, after academic prep, that either comes through in the ECs, writing, and LoRs or not. Including the deadly “Why Us?”
Hence., my position on trying to understand match.