Exchange students have more chances to transfer?

Hi, I’m from Brazil. The University I study in has a joint program with Stanford, Columbia, Berkeley and others as well in the US. I know a guy (which I have 0 [Zero] contact with) that went to Columbia as an exchange student, and then, got accepted as a transfer. The next semester, a guy went to Berkeley as exchange and did the same thing.
If the College accepts you as exchange, and you do well, do you have a reasonable chance to transfer?