Sadly, times have changed significantly in the past 10 years, particularly since the crash. When my oldest son went to Tisch back in 2007, money in general (not just at Tisch) was a lot more available and need blind was a lot more common. Nowadays, because of the economy, need-blind is less common (as I referred to in the Times article).
I’m offering my limited experience as I have 5 kids with a range of 10 years and I’ve muddled through this process now for 4 of them! Every year we apply, I spend many sleepless nights in anxiety for the finances (on top of getting in!).
The way we’ve navigated it has been a combination of luck & strategy. Having good stats helps. For instance, to use an easy example, if you have a 2400 in your SATs, you are going to be more valuable to some colleges (even some BFA programs – depending on the school). But in a technically lower tier school, you may be really desirable with “just” a 1750 SAT. And that “lower tier” school may end up being phenomenal for your kid.
But never underestimate luck in this process. I do think it’s worse now than before (how luck plays into it all). That’s why it’s good to apply for a range of reaches, safeties and matches economically as well as academically.
For instance, it’s hard to predict whether the college will adhere to FAFSA. I agree, some colleges seem to just tear it to little shreds. I mean, I had a rough year once when my EFC was literally 0, and that was the year RISD offered no grant/scholarship money to my daughter at all. It was entirely a loan offer, which Stafford maxed at around $6K/year. The rest was supposed to be made up by magical pixie dust, I guess! However, I happen to know that that same year, RISD offered another student a very large need-based talent scholarship. My daughter wasn’t as ‘wanted’ as that student. We had no way of knowing that ahead of time though.
But back to what I said, the best way to see whether you stand a chance of getting any money is to look at each college’s endowment and their stats on meeting need (but again be careful to see how much is met in loan versus outright grant). Also you can read between the lines in how they present themselves. Some colleges might say something like, “We are deeply committed to ensuring a diverse range of students” and others might say, “Here is a link to outside scholarship offers in case you want some.” Guess which one is more likely to give need/merit money?
However nothing is ever written in stone, and you can only go by likely and unlikely. There are always exceptions. Just don’t put all your eggs into one basket. Try as best as you can to know how you fit in terms of being a safety, reach or match for each school. This is a very individual process.