That sounds great, and it now goes on a list of possible column headings I’m making for a future spreadsheet, maybe something like “reach/match/safety adjusted by merit scholarship chance” alongside a generic “reach/match/safety” based on admissions/test score #s and “holistic” EC guesses alone.
Having read a few ED/EA threads, I start to understand the discussion about ED as intertwined with not just “what are my chances” but as importantly “would I go even though I can’t shop FA/merit offers from other schools.” And then, taking that all into account and more, all the various “game theory” approaches to ED. No matter where we land on all that, it is good to start to piece this all together.
Without test scores and GPA and the like, I have no idea what her chances will be at various schools, and some of what she may have on her list will no doubt be so selective they will be high reaches at the very, very best no matter what (if not entirely out of the question). My D is not hooked, to use another term CC has inserted into my vocab now, so the stats over the coming year will, for better or worse, start to put some parameters around how all this fits together. And we will talk to our D about not getting set on one profile of schools (selectivity, financial, or otherwise) or a small number of schools too early. We’ll see how it all goes!
Thanks again ucb. With 50,000+ posts to your name, you’ve clearly been willing to help many people, and likely been willing to answer many of the same questions repeatedly, and I appreciate it! If more thoughts come to you, I’ll always be grateful to hear them.