Getting worried-chances for UCs

Our kid was recently rejected for Cal Poly. He is the 1st in our family to be applying for UCs. He has also applied to UCD, UCSB, and UCSD. Does he have a better chance at the UCs or worse? =( We are really knew to this. Both my hubby and I have minimal college experience.

Engineering (Davis is aerospace engineering)
4.6 weighted
3.9 unweighted
3 APs with a 3,4,5
ACT 28
SAT 1890
valedictorian
CSF
Varsity track 4 years
participates in science olympiad/science bowl

Just hate for him to be rejected. He has worked so hard. =(

Does your son have any safety schools on his list? Acceptance to engineering at any of these schools is going to be the toss of a coin for even those with the best of stats. Your son has great stats but test scores are on the low side for any of the schools you have listed. He might have a better chance at some of the other UC’s or Cal State’s, but engineering is extremely competitive.

Yes, he has been accepted at Fresno State. We were hoping for Smittcamp but just found out he was chosen as an alternate. If he doesn’t get into a UC, he will go there. Thank you for responding.

Where else has he applied?

The UC’s factor GPA heavily and his being valedictorian will certainly help him there. If push comes to shove he’ll be offered a UC through local context or statewide.

The 3 UCs, Fresno state (accepted), Cal Poly (denied), and Colorado School of Mines (accepted). That’s it.

What is his UC GPA capped weighted? https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Which Engineering for UCSB and UCSD?

GPA looks on target but test scores below the averages for Engineering majors at the UC’s listed.

Looks like 4.06 from that.

UCSD Mechanical
UCD aero
UCSB is actually a little confusing for both of us. He applied for CCS biochemical and CCS Physics but never completed the additional application. Admissions says he would be admitted/denied as an undeclared.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.

If accepted to UCSB as Undeclared, he should not count on trying to transfer into the Engineering majors. Very few spots unless admitted directly. Physics would be a more logical choice.

That said, the UC’s are very GPA focused so his GPA puts him within range. As stated above, test scores are below the averages for these UC as an Engineering major.

I would say based on stats only: UCSB and UCD are 50/50 High Match-Low Reach.
UCSD would be a Low Reach since ME is capped major.

Did he select a non-capped major as an alternate for UCSD? He might get into UCSD in an alternate major or Undeclared but again changing into an Engineering major is almost impossible.

His EC’s and essays will all contribute to his application review and difficult to quantify but if they are outstanding, it will definitely have positive impact on his chances.

As stated by @MYOS1634, if he is in the top 9% of his HS class, then he will be offered a spot at UC Merced if not accepted to any of the UC’s.

Good Luck to him and hopefully my predictions are off.

Thank you. I’ll let you know.

Son accepted to both UCSD and UC DAVIS. We are thrilled. Wanted to update you.

Wow, congratulations!!!
Now, time to compare net costs, spend time on campus for admitted student days, ask to be put in touch with students in his major, look into the housing situation…

Congratulations @ManyXsBlessed I’m glad it worked out. :-bd