<p>Are you folks seeing a going trend of upper middle class kids going to community colleges or the in-state U. I'm seeing kids whose parents can afford private colleges opting more and more for the less expensive alternative. Often times these kids are good students.. and they visit a lot of private colleges..but in the end they just seem to go public. Has it reached the point where, unless it is an Ivy, the cost-benefit, is just not there?</p>
<p>Not many colleges are going out of business due to lack of enrollments. Some lower rate colleges with high costs spend a lot on recruitment, but there is nothing new about that. There seem to be plenty of students and parents willing to pay a lot for college.</p>
<p>One thought that occurs to me is that many students have plans for graduate school. Perhaps their parents explain (as we have) that there's a finite amount of money to finance the student's education, and that the student can decide whether to use it all for undergrad or save some to help with grad school expenses.</p>
<p>Also, there are many outstanding programs/opportunities offered through Honors colleges at various publics. These, coupled with the lower tuition, make a public education very attractive, not necessarily a second-best choice.</p>
<p>I'm not seeing many parents that can easily afford a private college education anymore. At a rack rate of around $50,000 a year, it's not something someone who makes even $200K a year can just pull out of spending money. And they aren't going to qualify for finacial aid.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Has it reached the point where, unless it is an Ivy, the cost-benefit, is just not there?
[/quote]
I would take out the phrase "unless it is an Ivy" and then I'd agree. Many wealthy families in D's school are reaching the conclusion that cost-benefit is part of the fit equation. These top girls have attracted merit money from great private schools or, as frazzled says, earned spots in very competitive public programs. They willingly pay the high school tuition because the school comes out on top in their eyes when a cost-benefit analysis is completed. But for many reasons, the more elite, expensive colleges often are not on top when that same calculation is performed four year later.</p>
<p>But a lot of students at private colleges are not paying the rack rate. If a good student does his/her research well it is possible to get a deep discount which will rusult in cost approaching a flagship public university.</p>
<p>This is what our son did and he did get to choose between several well respected private universities, LACs and the Honors College of our state flagship university which is also well respected. Was he better off choosing the private univeristy? We will never know but with one semester remining until graduation he has absolutely no regrets.</p>
<p>In order to have a chance at a good finaid package he determined that about as far up the food chain he could go was colleges like Case, Oberlin and Rensselaer and he hit on 2 of the three.</p>
<p>I think some of the proble is that families do not consider colleges like these and assume the choice is either highly selective private uni's or in-state publics. There are often a far broader range of choices.</p>
<br>
<blockquote> <p>..but in the end they just seem to go public. Has it reached the point where, unless it is an Ivy, the cost-benefit, is just not there?<<</p> </blockquote>
<br>
<p>Maybe it never was there. In terms of quality of education per dollar spent, I've long thought that flagship state universities offer the most cost effective college education around. That doesn't mean that they are best choice for everyone, but they certainly are an attractive choice.</p>
<p>However, I'd be very reluctant to declare a national trend based on what you've seen among your own family and friends. The signal that people really are turning away from fancy private schools will be when the number of applications they get goes down. But they haven't. The high-end schools still get more and more apps every year. Plus their yields stay up and their admit rates go down. All of this suggests that there is no overall trend away from high-end private schools and toward state schools.</p>
<p>I think all the private schools I'd want to pay for are now "highly selective" and I can think of about fifty, not just Ivy-caliber ones. It is very frightening to be paying Ivy tuition at a private school that a generation ago accepted anyone who could complete the application. My kids will go State if they can't get into a college I have complete faith in.</p>
<p>DD knows a lot of kids who are not even apply to any private college, just state school. These kids have one parent, typically a dad who is an engineer, and a mom who is either a nurse or a teacher. I'm sure these families don't qualify for financial aid but that does not mean they can afford it either.</p>
<p>It's funny you ask that, because my daughter may end up at our state flagship despite our fairly exhaustive college search process. Of course, around here, the state flagship is "perceived" as a prestigious choice and a difficult admit. She was pretty adamant it wasn't for her -- but as she started to weigh pros and cons, the cost was a big pro that canceled out a lot of small cons.</p>
<p>If she receives good merit aid and gets into a specialized program that she wants, there is one private that may still trump the in-state choice. </p>
<p>The state schools are NOT for everyone. But for some kids, they are perfectly "fine" and the cost is a big factor. As frazzled points out, having money left over for grad school can be huge.</p>
<p>I don't believe the in-state automatically trumps a private, even a non-prestigious one. Lots of kids around here go to lots of regional privates. But I will say that my thinking has changed on OOS flagships. My daughter was very interested in neighboring Big Ten schools -- loved the towns, the atmospheres, the high ratings of some of them (Wisc. and Mich., for ex.) But I find myself increasingly unable to rationalize the OOS tuition -- tiny amounts of merit aid, if any, and knowing the in-state kids are getting the exact same education and experience for a fraction of the price.</p>
<p>It seems to me that the elite schools with the high endowments are now mostly attracting lower income families that receive substantial financial aid packages or the super wealthy that have less concern for costs. The middle to upper middle income often gravitates to state schools or the next tier down privates that offer merit aid. I know there are exceptions, but walk the campus. Every University strives for diversity, but I think some elites are under representing a segment of society.</p>
<p>This is a very real trend--one that has private colleges concerned. There are studies that show a dramatic drop in the number of students willing to consider private, 4-year colleges over just the last few years (from 20% to about 15%). Here's just a sample of planning-type documents that mention this:</p>
<p>WFU</a> | Office of the President Emeritus</p>
<p>Strategic</a> Planning</p>
<p>Lots of the posts have pinpointed some of the reasons for the strength in the position of public institutions: cost, perception of increased quality and selectivity at publics, honors programs, and the strategic use of merit aid.</p>
<p>I think there's a lot of demographics at play. It seems that the number of wealthy families who can just write the check is stable, if not expanding. They subsidize those who can not, but the vast majority of middle class to upper middle class kids will find themselves admitted at places which do not meet 100% of need, at least not favorably. Faced with being gapped or saddled with unacceptable loans, they can either go down a tier or two or three for merit aid at privates or go public. I see a lot of the better students at our high school going to our in-state publics. It seems to be either that or a handful to the elites.</p>
<p>Lots of kids in our high school go to the SUNY's and a much smaller portion go to the local community college. However no one in the top 25 students went to a public college last year.</p>
<p>This is an interesting thread. I thought the Muhlenberg strategic planning piece said a lot. I know folks who told their kids that if they did not want to go to the state university, they better get into someplace pretty impressive. While the rest of the top schools can deal with the problem by attracting top middle and upper middle class students with merit aid, the Ivy League puts itself at a serious disadvantage, in this respect, with their agreement not to offer merit aid. I don't expect the Ivy League to be desperate for students but I would expect the class divide on campus to continue to grow, especially at the low end of the Ivy League and for top LAC's that refuse to offer merit aid.</p>
<p>If my son's lunch table is any indication, they are all applying to "Ivy, Ivy, Ivy, and University of Md." There is no middle ground. I can't understand why they don't look at schools the same size as Ivies but where they can get merit aid to make the price the same as MD. Lots seem to revolve around who has "heard of" the school.</p>
<p>Many of the kids at son's school that don't follow that pattern are the sports kids, both D1 and D3. They seem to find out more about what is out there.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Often times these kids are good students.. and they visit a lot of private colleges..but in the end they just seem to go public
[/quote]
Just because a particular college is private doesn't mean it's better than a particular public. One can't really generalize here. In addition to some publics being more highly ranked than many privates, including the Ivies, some students actually like the larger campus, the location, the students from all backgrounds, the research/work opportunities, and other attributes of the particular university. </p>
<p>In addition to a cost difference generally between publics and privates (depending on individual circumstances, grants, etc.) a number of public universities have become very selective and have highly respected professors and programs - that's not the exclusive domain of privates.</p>
<p>You can have the lower tier Ivies and top LAC's that refuse the merit aid. It is not a cross section of society. They miss a whole segment of the population. Good students have a lot of choices for good education at non-brand name schools. Does it make sense to pay more for a product that might not even be superior. Any one notice where many fortune 500 CEO's are graduating from? State schools and lower tier LAC's!</p>
<p>My son is willing to take the "hit" in selectivity/prestige to go to a small private college that will give him merit money.</p>
<p>He is DEFINITELY in the minority among his peers.</p>
<p>One of the local public school guidance counselors (NYC suburb) recentlysaid in his school in general, the top third of the senior class goes to "selective" private schools, the middle third to SUNY four year colleges and other state colleges and the lower third to SUNY two year colleges (New York has some two year SUNY residential programs which some students prefer to community college). So the lower 66 percent is mostly deciding to forgo private college.</p>