<p>I know it’s conventional wisdom on CC and elsewhere that applicants from certain states are disadvantaged in admissions to Ivies and other elite colleges due to the sheer numbers in which they apply. I’ve propagated this view myself. But I’m not sure conventional wisdom is right in this case.</p>
<p>We can get at this to some extent. Princeton conveniently provides data on the numbers of enrolled freshmen in its class of 2012 from each state:</p>
<p>[Number</a> of Students in the Class of 2012 by Geographic Region](<a href=“http://www.princeton.edu/admission/applyingforadmission/admission_statistics/map.htm]Number”>http://www.princeton.edu/admission/applyingforadmission/admission_statistics/map.htm)</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the College Board publishes statistics on how many 2008 graduating HS seniors from each state sent SAT I and/or SAT II scores to the 45 most popular colleges for that state ( look under “state reports”—you need to look up each state individually):</p>
<p>[College-Bound</a> Seniors 2008](<a href=“http://professionals.collegeboard.com/data-reports-research/sat/cb-seniors-2008]College-Bound”>Higher Education Professionals | College Board)</p>
<p>Now, conveniently enough, Princeton shows up in the College Board’s 45 most popular colleges for most states. And Princeton requires all applicants to submit 3 SAT Subject Tests–so presumably, every applicant to Princeton sends SAT scores. Thus the number of students from each state sending SAT I and/or SAT II scores to Princeton ought to approximate the number of applicants for that state; why bother to send the scores if you’re not going to apply? So let’s call those sending SAT scores “presumptive applicants.” </p>
<p>The number of enrolled freshman from each state won’t give us precise information on the number admitted, since Princeton’s yield is closer to 70% than 100%. But let’s assume, for the sake of argument (and advancing the ball) that the yield is pretty constant across states and geographic regions. Then we get the following relationships:</p>
<p>STATE / # enrolled freshmen / # presumptive applicants / enrolled as % of applicants</p>
<p>New Jersey / 168 / 3,774 / 4.5%
Florida / 49 / 1,325 / 3.7%
Ohio / 16 / 618 / 2.6%
North Carolina / 16 / < 732 / unknown but could be as low as 2.2% </p>
<p>Wyoming / 0 / 9 / 0%
North Dakota / 1 / 13 / 7.7%
South Dakota / 1 / 31 / 3.2%
Montana / 0 / 46 / 0%
Minnesota / 8 / 283 / 2.8%
Illinois / 32 / 759 / 4.2%
Michigan / 15 / 469 / 3.2%
Wisconsin / 9 / 231 / 3.9%</p>
<p>Virginia / 48 / 1,107 / 4.3%
Maryland / 66 / 973 / 6.8%
Pennsylvania / 77 / 1,921 / 4.0% </p>
<p>Of the four states the OP specifically inquired about, New Jersey actually has the highest percentage of presumptive applicants (those sending SAT scores to Princeton) ending up in the freshman class—a paltry 4.5%, but that’s definitely higher than Ohio and Florida. We can’t tell for North Carolina because Princeton doesn’t show up as one of the 45 most popular colleges for North Carolinians—all we know is that the number who sent SAT scores was less than 732, the number for Harvard, the 45th-most-popular college for North Carolinians that year.</p>
<p>What about the supposed “flyover land” advantage? Well, North Dakota looks pretty good at 7.7%, but that’s just one student in the freshman class. Neighboring South Dakota also had 1 enrolled but more presumptive applicants so it ended up at 3.2%, pretty close to Ohio territory. Sparsely populated Wyoming had 9 presumptive applicants, but no one in the entering class. Neighboring Montana had 0 enrolled despite 46 presumptive applicants, bringing the 4-state (ND,SD, MT, WY) total to 2 for 99, or 2.0%. Neighboring Minnesota, a more populous, more affluent, and generally better-educated “flyover” state, had an anemic 2.8%. So much for a “sparsely populated” or “flyover state” advantage. Illinois did a little better than other Midwestern states, but not by much, and not as well as New Jersey</p>
<p>Now admittedly, we don’t know how many actually applied, or how many were actually admitted from each state. We also don’t know how the credentials of those state-by-state applicant pools stack up. But based on this limited data, it’s hard to say New Jersey kids are at a statistical disadvantage when it comes to admission to Princeton, their backyard elite private that presumably is not going to go out of its way to land New Jerseyans since they’re a dime-a-dozen in its applicant pool. True, Princeton rejects far more New Jerseyans than it does applicants from any other state. But at the end of the day, that may be only because so many more New Jerseyans apply; the limited evidence here suggests the rejection RATE may not be any higher for New Jersey applicants than for those from other states. But I’d welcome others to comb further through the Princeton data, or to produce similar data for other colleges if it’s available. </p>
<p>For now, my tentative conclusion is that the idea that certain states are “advantaged” or “disadvantaged” in elite college admissions is probably just an unfounded myth—at least for Princeton, and until proven otherwise.</p>