Just closing the loop on this post - after visiting a few safeties, we were wowed! What a difference - these schools really rolled out the red carpet, and it is clear that sometimes, there are more opportunities at a safety school!
I’d been following this thread and although it’s been quiet for a while, I’ve been thinking about it because there are some interesting assumptions in it worth considering.
First is the “problem” of being at the top of the class stats wise. Even at HYPS, a quarter of the class will enter with higher stats than everyone else yet for some reason, it’s not considered to be a problem there.
Second is that kids with high stats tend to be the best “all-rounders” academically. It’s hard to get a 4.0UW if you struggle with math. Or FL. Or English (particularly if you aren’t a native speaker.) But in college, it’s generally unnecessary to be good at everything. The kid whose English is weak who is a math/physics genius will probably do better as an engineering major than the kid who killed himself to get through Calc AB in HS who wants to study history. And the thing is – they can both excel in college even though they look pretty different on paper. So while the OP’s son is a good “all-rounder”, that doesn’t necessarily mean than in the path that he takes, he’ll necessarily be much better at that thing than everyone else.
And third, there are schools that are not super-selective overall that have great departments. (In the LAC world, Gettysburg is one that comes to mind – not amazingly difficult to get into but if you’re interested in Civil War history, it could be a terrific choice.) So looking at the overall selectivity of the school can be misleading if you’re looking for something in particular that it has.
It really does come down to fit all the way around – financially, socially, how one pursues a major at a given school, how classes are taught, how your kid wants to interact with peers and profs, etc. I’d worry far less about whether a student “out-classed” his colleagues based on a high school GPA and test scores.
@gardenstategal At super elites like the Ivies, the top 25 percent’s stats aren’t that much different than the rest of the pack. For those types of schools, you’re loooijg at ACT ranges of 33-35. In fact, that’s probably one reason a student may choose a school like that over one with a wider range of stats.
I haven’t read this entire thread. When our daughter applied to schools it was all about getting to the best bottom line at the end of application season. While we make a good living we were not willing to pay full fare. She managed to thrive as an extremely brilliant child in just slightly above average public schools. She is thriving at a less than top 40 private college now on a great merit scholarship. The brilliant kids find each other no matter where they are. To think that an elite college is the only place where one can be with like minded souls as a justification for the choice doesn’t hold water in my opinion. Many many professors and postdocs at less than elite colleges came from graduate programs at these elite schools. Most people do not have the luxury to ponder the choice the OP is asking about. Even if their kid is elite material, the cost (despite generous need based financial support) is still out of reach. I am not even sure why I have followed this thread, the expensive elite versus affordable safety discussions usually give me a headache.
OP, we have a couple of very talented kids who have attended lower ranked schools on very large merit scholarships. I have to say that for our kids the Gladwell’s big fish/little pond theory/Bruni’s “where you go is not who you’ll be” theories have been our kids’ reality. Their successes have been due to their constant drive to embrace the opportunities available. They are excellent students, but they are also excellent researchers with high levels of achievement outside of the classroom.
As a proud momma, I can share that our ds is graduating from an UG university that is not ranked in the top 100, but he has been accepted into some of the top grad programs in the country for his desired field. The emphasis of Gladwell and Bruno’s theories, though, is that students have to be extremely proactive and have the drive to succeed. They have to pursue being that big fish bc it doesn’t just happen on its own. Opportunities don’t just knock on their door.
@NorthernMom61 I am the original poster of this thread, and I’m not sure where you got the idea that this is about an elite college vs. an affordable safety. My original question was simply:
In this instance, the reach school is a state flagship with a 45% acceptance rate. It is not an ivy league, not a top tier, not even whatever the level below the top tier is! There are no elite schools on our list, trust me. (Well, maybe they’re elite for our family but don’t fit the definition of elite on these boards!)
@STF4717 , sounds like you have a good fit and a solid choice with your state school (and an honors program to boot!). Congrats!
@STF4717 I am sorry if I offended you, I was actually responding to some others, and perhaps influenced by some other threads that often digress to the idea that opportunity to be with others of like caliber as being a big motivator to pursue an elite. I reread your original post and can see the idea of elite was not yours. I actually am with you on the totally acceptable if not optimal choice of going with the “safety” with honors option. Even without honors I think many high caliber students would thrive at schools they consider “safety.” In reality I hate the terms “reach,” “match,” and “safety.” The distinction creates a perception that some institutions are lesser instututions. That simply is not true. To be able to go at all, learn, do well, and come out the other end with a degree is the purpose. Again, I am sorry for not being more thorough before opening my big mouth.
I can only speak based on what I observed at my kid’s large, competitive public HS in Southern CA. Many top students (I am going to define them as top 10) ended up going to OOS public schools, not Honors Colleges, on great merit scholarships. For these top academic students, these were safeties. But this did not mean they did not apply to some super reach schools like HYPSM, but they were all rejected for some reason, although I am sure they got into some other reach schools such as Cornell or Northwestern. But I can tell you most if not all top students did not go to top UCs, and instead took merit money at other OOS or in state schools such as JHU, Univ of Southern CA or Texas Austin. Or CalTech with no merit money. Many good to very good students went to top UCs but were not top 10 students. Even the CalTech student got denied from MIT which was her number one choice.
@NorthernMom61 it’s all good, no need to apologize! I agree with you 100% - I am surrounded by people (on these boards and in real life) who chase the elites. There is so much more to life. I want my kiddo to come out of college with some grit! 
Honors College/state college with merit money + happy 4 years > elite college + unhappy 4 years. But what does the grit have to do with where you go to college? I went to an Ivy, got bad grades, got out with a lot of grit and something to prove. And proved it to myself in business. If you think Mark Zuckerburg lacks grit, think again. The guy turned down billion dollar offer to continue on instead of selling Facebook. Come to think of it, I already had a plenty of grit at the end of HS by fighting and beating up many kids due to discrimination.
“In reality I hate the terms “reach,” “match,” and “safety.” The distinction creates a perception that some institutions are lesser instututions. That simply is not true.”
I have to disagree. Not all colleges are created equal. I would hire a graduate from MIT before I would a graduate with the same degree from NJIT. To insist that they are the same is disingenuous. Even putting aside the different caliber of education, the kids who go to MIT were already academic superstars by the time they are high school seniors.
As far as “grit” goes, one reason I would like my dd to go to a top-20 (IF she can get in) is precisely because I want her to build some grit. It’s been a little too easy for her to stay on top academically in her HS. Too much free time to engage in gratuitous boy drama, girl drama, and just general drama. I’d like to see her work hard to even stay in the middle-of-the-pack.
@bestmom888, I agree that the terms “reach” “match” and “safety” can be misused and confusing. Also agree that it can sound condescending to suggest an institution is “lesser” than another, particularly based on arbitrary random rankings that are at best, skewed and flawed, and at worst, outright deception and untrue.
Brilliant hard working students can be found at all institutions, from the 100th ranked state school to the top 20. You can usually find the hard workers by looking at their internships, research, and work ethic.
There is a stereotype that students at top twenty schools are hard working, but in some cases can be the opposite. There are some who work hard to get into these tough schools and are so burnt out and feel so entitled, that many want to rest on their laurels for a while, if not years. That may be an exception, but I have read that recruiters will sometimes prefer the mid west lower ranked school top student versus students at Ivies or higher ranked institutions who have not demonstrated as much energy in pursuing their learning outside the classroom.
Finally, so as not to bash top 20 schools, there are no doubt many great students to be found, but it is important to also consider the major which may be tougher at many lower ranked schools if say “engineering” or “comp sci” than pursuing, for example, an English major at many higher ranked universities.