<p>Glad to see you are learning your stats at Hotchkiss given that that is my first choice for my daughter. Hope she gets in there. For anybody interested in business/financial markets, I recommend taking as much stats as possible. I wish I had taken more in high school and college.</p>
<p>Actually bearcat and Captofthehouse you both are correct. Bearcat's stats are valid "IF" some one has "1 in X" chance of getting accepted. He has calculated how applying to a greater number of schools ensures that at least "one" of the schools will accept the applicant.</p>
<p>If we were to take it to extreme and say that the applicant has "close to Zero" chance of getting in, then three is virtually no number of applications that will help the applicant.</p>
<p>While we would all like it to be some sort of matrix, reality is that there is a lot of subjectivity and considerations in the whole admission processes.</p>
<p>There is no denying that there are quotas of one sort or the other; FA, Grade, Sports, Diversity, Regional concentration, International, Gender... and the list goes on and on.</p>
<p>No one likes quotas, unless the help him/her.. and end of the day all these mini decisions by add comms become a social science experiment.</p>
<p>The best we all can hope for is that they will do their job without bigotry and malice towards any social group or type of people.</p>
<p>And yes even though my daughter will probably benefit from her ancestry and background (weather she gets in or not is an other question), I can not help but feel bad for all the Asian kids who have to be much more better than the others, just because as a community they are over-represented in these schools.</p>
<p>I think the flaw in the idea of increasing the probability of acceptance by applying to more schools are 2 things. First, I don't think a random element can be applied to all of the decision making here, as I don't think any adcoms get coins out of their pocket to decide the last slot at Andover between the last 2 applicants in the pile.</p>
<p>Also problematic is the assumption that the schools will behave in the same manner given the same input. In that regard, schools that value one thing higher than another, say test scores weigh heavier at one school than another where ECs count more, might say that we can't even have a fair statitical comparison here.</p>
<p>That being said, it still makes sense to apply to more schools exactly because one may value what you have strength in more than others. And without that specific knowledge (they'd have to kill you after they tell you that - LOL) there is no way of knowing which of the top schools will like you the best and likewise which ones you really don't have that good of odds at.</p>
<p>Not to demean statistics here. Personally I think it is a greatly undervalued discipline. However, the mathematical models that best represent schools that compete against each other (have awareness about the competition;'s behavior and behave accordingly) actually fall into the realm of "game theory" which is a black art based upon the knowledge of the players involved, does have a bit of a statistical element to it, but is often based upon the psychology and sociology of the participants. </p>
<p>And I do believe in luck as not all things are predictable as (outside of Chaos Theory ;p) leaving luck as an easy out for us mortals who are not omnicient nor omnipotent.</p>
<p>All these stats are making me crazy! AliJ....please let us know where your D gets in. I can't imagine she won't get in anyplace. GOOD LUCK and can't wait to hear.</p>
<p>This kid who maybe lives in another country is trying to parlay the bombing of a school into an elite boarding situation.Underestimated the only test required for consideration.The stat conversation is kinda interesting,but move it to a space of its own.I vote that this may be a nice case study for game theory vs raw stats.someone who is smart move on that.</p>
<p>LOL Francis I am mazed at your level of cynicism. </p>
<p>One can learn something positive from EVERY situation, that is what she talked about in her essay. The reason I mentioned it was because it is a different topic and may set her apart from other applicants.</p>
<p>I agree stats are actually a lot of fun.</p>
<p>Hi PSMom, I will be sure to post my D's outcome on the board. I really appreciate every one's input and insight.</p>
<p>End of the day boys and girls, its just high school. Congrats to the ones that get in and a Fantastic humbling experience for the rest.</p>
<p>Its a great learning opportunity either way. Make the most of it, half the battle is just trying, use it as a positive and improve yourself.</p>
<p>Over and Out.</p>
<p>No, Ali! We'll miss you!
don't go because of Francis :D</p>
<p>And Francis, that was pretty mean. Have you undergone something like that? Even the naivety of your statement - " is trying to parlay the bombing of a school into an elite boarding situation" is completely inappropriate. The essay is about a life experience, and I see nothing more poignant than that, as I believe no other kid applying to these schools should be able to identify with that, as I have not had my school blown up. Show some sensitivity, and I can see that you are going to find a lot of problems in life, or college, if you think it is all about a "numbers" game.</p>
<p>Oh no , I am not going any where, and I am too old to be intimidated by things Plus 5 years of borading school (mine was a Cadet College) teaches you how to deal with a lot of people.. </p>
<p>By the way the person who got into Choate with low SSATs were they legacy or something?</p>
<p>the vast majority of the people below the average (about 93% for most of the schools you are applying to, except for SPS with 88%) are legacies, old money, developmental candidates, URMs(underrepresented minorites), athletes, and people similar to your daughter's case (underrepresented internationals) and people with special talent and experience(again, your daughter)</p>
<p>Bear in mind that the median SSAT is actually much higher than the mean because of the extremely low case, the scores are skewed left, therefore the average is dragged down... i would guess due to this reason the mean SSAT percentile given by the schools' literature is actually around 30th-35th percentile of the admitted student pool</p>
<p>p.s francis, you lack the personal skills needed to survive at a BS...in fact, this is what adcoms keenly look for....so i say based on your bigot comment, i dont think you deserve to get into a top BS....</p>
<p>Bearcat can you please restate what you said.. I was not clear on 30-35% percentile.</p>
<p>I am not sure about Top BS, but the type I went too would be excellent for Francis. A number of my good friends had the same "style", and you would not recognize them today.</p>
<p>I will highly recommend BS to any mature student, it was the best thing that ever happened to me.</p>
<p>it is unfair to call someone a bigot because they suggest ending a thread.Alij pm'd me in a "panic" several days ago and i gave him sympathetic advice including imo that his D would be an assett to any school.Then this overworked thread started. We are dealing with a panic stricken parent whose D did not test well (OR WELL ENOUGH FOR THE PARENT).That is fine, but don't assault me for clearing the smoke every now and then.You do not know my background or sympathies.Facts are that just another parent( admitted military training)is trying to put damage control on a situation.They have gotten some helpful advice from me and others.Also,to suggest that i need military school because i question the need for beating a dead horse sounds like a pretty controlling dude.This is just a prep discussion area,don't get so personal</p>
<p>Ok, lets stop this. This is supposed to be a community board to assist each other, and for most part we have done that. So lets not let it degenerate into a ****ing match. Francis, I apologize for for any rundeness and slights from my side and I do not have any ill will towards you.</p>
<p>And for the record, yes I did PM Francis when I could not post on the forum and he was helpful. Thank you for that.</p>