<p>Another thought (to add to an already complicated situation):</p>
<p>My husband has a Ph.D. in math and my son is in the process of trying to get one in computer science. These are not exactly your son’s interests, but they’re fairly close.</p>
<p>From their experience, I think I can say with some confidence that where you get your Ph.D. is far, far more important than where you get your undergraduate degree. This is especially true for those who seek a career in academia, but it is even true to some extent for those who seek careers in industry. The rankings of graduate schools in specific fields are surprisingly important.</p>
<p>But this does not mean that where you get your undergraduate degree is completely irrelevant. </p>
<p>My son got his undergraduate degree at a state university, but it was a state university that had a top-20 department in his field and offered extensive undergraduate research opportunities – which he took advantage of. Thus, he had research experience and recommendations from professors who were known to the professors at his current graduate school (which also has a top-20 department in his field). </p>
<p>My husband also got his undergraduate degree at a state university, but like my son, he had opportunities to work with faculty and to obtain good recommendations from them.</p>
<p>With all that said, I have to admit that neither my husband nor my son chose their undergraduate colleges with Ph.D.s in mind. My husband started out in electrical engineering, with no thought of graduate school, changed his major midway through college because the loss of a semester to illness meant that he would not be able to complete the highly structured EE program without spending an extra year in college, and didn’t give serious consideration to graduate school until it was almost time to apply. My son always knew he would major in computer science but had no thought of a research career until a friend of his father’s suggested that he apply to a certain research-oriented internship. He liked the work at the internship, and that changed his world forever. </p>
<p>My point here is that events you cannot now anticipate could lead to changes in your son’s plans. If there were some way to be sure that a Ph.D. was in your son’s future, I would say that he should look for good bargains in universities that have good (not necessarily top-10, but good) research programs in his major and extensive undergraduate research opportunities, regardless of the overall ranking of the university. But you cannot be sure that his plans will not change. Young people are still growing and evolving, and unexpected events may intervene as well. Just as my husband and son entered college with no thought of getting Ph.D.s, your son, who has that idea in mind, may end up following a different path.</p>