How exactly do you guys evaluate chances?

Chance Me / Match Me!
21

<p>
[quote]
Confidence-booster. People want to hear: "Yes every chance in the world!!!" And if you tell them no, then it's: "Anyone else?"

[/quote]
</p>

<p>That is a false-dichotomy, but who are we to attack caricatures rather than the actual arguments?</p>

22

<p>Using an algorithm that is way too complicated for simple mortals to understand.</p>

23

<p>For shame, nspeds. The correct logical term is "straw men" rather than "caricature." ;)</p>

24

<p>
[quote]
For shame, nspeds. The correct logical term is "straw men" rather than "caricature."

[/quote]
</p>

<p>It is dubious whether the poster would understand me if I typed that.</p>

25

<p>I just use the RAND()*100 function in Microsoft Excel.</p>

<p>This thread has a 38.1581114259 chance of being accurate, btw.</p>

26

<p>You have a 100.00 chance of being a nerd.</p>

27

<p>Yeah, I think that it's pretty much just people trying to get other people to agree that they do have a chance at the schools they are applying to.</p>

<p>If any of you actually think you can predict who will get into Yale and who won't, you are on a major power trip. Unless you are an adcom and you know the other people who send applications in, you are just guessing.</p>

28

<p>Even an AdCom at a place like Yale might not be able to predict whether or not you're in. Keep in mind that the committee votes - therefore, one AdCom might say "In!" while another one might say "No way!" I think that is the greatest proof that chances cannot be evaluated with any certainty. However, I think it is possible to pick out the stronger applicants from the weak ones and reach, match, safety evaluations are somewhat justifiable.</p>