How predictive of NEU's official/final aid offer is the EA "tentative aid" offer?

How closely does the EA “tentative aid” offer conveyed during December tend to correlate with the actual aid offer in February/March?

(Aside from situations where there is a significant change in the parents’ financial picture between when they submitted the CSS Profile and when they filed the FAFSA.)

Does the FAFSA act mostly as a “validator” of the CSS Profile information submitted in October/November, with actual year-end figures rather than estimates based on 9-11 months of data for the year?

Does the merit aid offer change much, or is variation typically only on the need-based component?

Thanks in advance …

Any variation in aid would be need based aid, not merit aid. Changes in need based aid would only occur if there is a 'discrepancy" shall we say in the figures.

Thanks @TomSrOfBoston .