<p>So this website: http:// <a href="http://www.satscores.us/mychances/%5B/url%5D">www.satscores.us/mychances/</a>
gives chances to colleges in percentages. So, for instance, someone with a 2300 sat score in the top 3% would have a 16% chance of being accepted to Yale and a 35% chance to Brown. I know that admissions are holistic, and of course for someone with amazing extra curriculars, or none at all, these would not be true.
Do you think that for someone with average extra curriculars (for the application pool) and good essays, these predictions would be pretty accurate, or not?</p>
<p>Not at all. It doesn’t read your ECs, recs, and essays which in the top schools REALLY matter.</p>
<p>That’s why it still gives you a % chance and not telling you the exact answer. It is basically a computerized database search. How do you define accurate when it says you have 15% chance you got accepted or not? It is just like weather forecast, when it said 10% chance of rain, it may happen but with a low chance. Some people said data don’t lie, while others said there are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Anyway, these sites give you some references and you will need to adjust it with some other factors. It is a good tool to use.</p>
<p>Reliable how? Projected chances aren’t odds because they fail to differentiate between dependent and independent outcomes. For example, if I had a pile of applicants all in the top 3% of their class with 2300 SATs do I think 35 would be accepted to Brown and 16 into Yale? Yeah, probably. But the 16 getting into Yale could also be a subset of the 35 getting into Brown. In other words, your ‘odds’ at school ‘A’ don’t improve or degrade because of an admissions decision at school ‘B’. Your outcome will always be binary - 100% or 0%; so the 35% stat is of virtually no value.</p>
<p>Flip the statistics, you’ve been told by these sites that a top 3% student with a 2300 SAT has an 84% chance of being rejected by Yale and a 65% chance of being rejected by Brown. In my opinion, neither is anything to get excited about.</p>