<p>I know the Ivies are never guaranteed, even for 4.0 UW GPA w/2300-2400 SATs and 10-11 APs w/ scores of 5 across the board, but many of these kids are also applying to schools like UMich, UVA, UNC and non-publics like USC, NYU etc. as back-ups/safeties. In fact, applications seem to be up anywhere from 5% to 25% at nearly every college as prospective students seek multiple FA offers to compare and employ the easy process of submitting a Common App. that almost all schools are now using.</p>
<p>So a school like Michigan which historically has had an acceptance rate of 49-50%, may be as low as 30-33% this year. That's but one example. And many students feel like they need to apply to 15-20 schools now. They get accepted at 12-18 and other qualified students get shut out. Hey, it's a free market but something seems wrong about playing the process that way. That is especially true when some students parent refuse to pay for more than 6-8 applications, thereby putting them at an additional disadvantage. Remember, not all schools will deny admission to a well-overqualified applicant assuming they are using the school as a safety w/virtually no chance of attending. Some accept those student simply to inflate the SAT score range of accepted applicants, making the college appear more elite. Sometimes seems like it is all just a game, and a system that is being gamed.</p>
<p>"They get accepted at 12-18 and other qualified students get shut out. "</p>
<p>But you’re assuming that the 2nd tier of the top schools isn’t aware of this? They also correspondingly adjust their admit numbers upward to ensure that their yield remains the same. While UMich’s admit rate is dropping, it would not surprise me if indeed, they are admitting more relative to other years. Does anyone have the raw numbers? It’s clear that they also are receiving many more apps than before as well.</p>
<p>Remember, even if the uber applicant receives 12 accepts, he/she can only attend one. Eleven other schools will be turned down and those schools will have eleven open slots. I’ve not heard of 2nd tier top colleges unable to fill their entire allotment. Have you?</p>
<p>Both UVA and UMich are coming out with their EA decisions after many of other schools’ notifications. I am sure those accepted students will notify UVA and UMich as soon as they got their notifications.</p>
<p>yes, raw numbers vs. percentages. At some schools the actual number of acceptances could go up, while the percentage of acceptances goes down as many more students apply. I suppose the top schools have the science of it all down along w/the wiggle room they allow w/deferred and waitlist. A few years ago, so many students accepted at Michigan that it surprised Admissions and they were a bit concerned about available housing to accomodate everyone. It worked out.</p>
<p>The ubiquity of the Common App, and the tough economic times forcing students to pitch for more FA offers, and their consequent impact on application increases, is undeniable I think. In the end you have many more applicants for the same number of slots, so it appears as though slight reaches have become reaches, matches have become slight reaches, etc. If the colleges adjust by admitting more and assuming less will actually attend maybe it all works. If there is an “echo baby boom” demographic at work, or if more kids that never applied to top colleges are doing so now because of the tough economy, I still think it is going to be tougher to get in. I know I have just added another variable.</p>
<p>Every student – even the student aiming for HYPS – needs a list of match and safety schools. These students have been applying to excellent public schools like Michigan as safeties for years. Nothing new about that. Michigan’s yield will undoubtedly be in the same range this year as it has been for years. </p>
<p>And as for applying to 12-18 schools because the Common App supposedly makes it so easy, have you taken a look at the Michigan supplemental application?</p>
<p>I was living in Ann Arbor one year when they understimated the no. of matriculants. They really had to scramble – converting some dorm common spaces into dorms! Yikes.</p>
<p>I agree w/WJB about UVA and UMich as traditional safeties for top applicants. UMich accepted me in the Oct of my Senior year. It definitely made applying to reach schools in December much less stressful!</p>
<p>My only caution to both parents and students is that if you are sitting on two offers, make up your mind and tell the schoosl IMMEDIATELY so they can fill that spot. I have a relative (and she is a selfish POS) who didn’t decide which school she was attending until 1 week into classes. She had a full ride at both so no “skin in the game” and she played princess. You can tell what I think of her (years later btw) So don’t do that!</p>
<p>true of UVA and UNC Oldfort, as they do not decide until late January. Michigan could release results today or Monday. Hopefully all students inform the other schools at which they were accepted as soon as they have decided on where they are going. However, many agonize over the decision for months, many simply are too lazy having applied to 15 schools plus or minus, and many figure the schools have it already worked into their formulas. While I’m at it, especially if you applied to 10-20 schools, please thank your H.S. school counselors and admin. staff for their efforts on your behalf— in person and in writing–no tweets or e-mails or texts. Go up to them and shake their hands. It’s a lost art.</p>
<p>It is frustrating when one kid’s safeties are another kid’s dream schools. My daughter is waiting on a decision from Michigan right now and we can only hope that other kids who were accepted to their dream schools withdraw their names from Michigan. </p>
<p>And if my daughter gets in there, she’ll withdraw her name from other schools on her list, thereby opening up slots for others. And on down the line.</p>
<p>Leaving the side the question of what is a “2nd tier top college,” consider Case Western Reserve University.</p>
<p>Class of 2014: 9,468 applicants, 67% admitted, 1087 matriculated
Class of 2015: 13,553 applicants, 51% admitted, 950 matriculated</p>
<p>“What went wrong? Truth: We don’t know … attracted a higher quality applicant, and we weren’t competitive with a more elite set of schools.” - Bob McCullough, Director of Undergraduate Admission</p>
<p>I’ve heard it described as an arms race and I think I agree. Game theory is in play. Parents don’t want to restrict their kids and most high schools don’t want to restrict their students. Colleges have no interest in discouraging apps. As others have said though, you can only attend one school at a time. If you hold relative desirability constant, it should only become harder over time to get into a given school if (when) the quality of the overall applicant pool is increasing. The number of applications should not make any difference. </p>
<p>I think it will get much worse before it gets better. Someone pointed me to a high school that sent 46 apps to Stanford last year, one acceptance. I think these super-selective schools love the idea that kids are carpet bombing admissions offices with apps. Otherwise they could discourage much of this activity. Surely many of those 46 apps to Stanford were DOA.</p>
<p>The admissions offices in large public universities tend to have sophisticated yield-predicting and yield-monitoring programs in place. So if there were an increase in the number of applicants at the top (with such a school as a safety), I don’t think it would have too much impact on match applicants to the school. </p>
<p>Also, the historical acceptance rates of flagship state schools in general may be somewhat misleadingly high–the in-state guidance counselors will often try to match a student’s applications to the public universities in the state, and they have a broad experience base to draw upon. While students are free to apply anywhere, nevertheless, there will be quite a few in-state students who have been counseled out of spending the money on a flagship application, who don’t contribute to the denominator in the acceptance rate.</p>
<p>Edit: Just noticed T26E4’s post. I guess there may still be a few glitches in what I’ve called the “sophisticated yield-predicting and yield-monitoring programs” at some of the schools. Unexpected changes in the economy, occurring after quite a few students have been admitted, can make a state flagship a more desirable choice.</p>
<p>One of S’s classmates was in tears yesterday after learning she was deferred EA from her top choice, which is barely a top-50 uni, but one that apparently has aggressively recruited applicants (S received numerous mailings from this school) and had a huge surge. A deferral for this student was shocking, as she would be a solid applicant for any school in the country. It also unnerved my son, as he believes this young lady to be a stronger student than he is, and his remaining 6 schools to hear from are more selective than the one that deferred her. I suspect she was Tufts-ed (is that the right phrase?)</p>
<p>S has “only” applied to 8. Many of his similar classmates are above 15 apps. I think he would’ve applied to only 3 if we could be more confident that he would be admitted to one of his 3 favorites.</p>
<p>Also, fwiw, he reports that many of his classmates have applied to schools at which they have virtually no chance of being admitted (3.3 gpa isn’t getting anyone into Stanford).</p>
<p>First, T26E4 is exactly right. There are essentially the same number of students going to college but they applying at more schools. Therefore, the yields will be down and the schools will end up accepting more. In the end the same numbers are then matriculating. But, early on in the acceptance cycles, I think you’ll see schools deferring more students in the EA round so that they are careful about not accepting too many. They may want to see how many are accepting through say February and then they will go through another round of acceptances/rejections. </p>
<p>That is how I saw it occuring last year with my son who ended up at U of Michigan. </p>
<p>I do think it is better for applicants to really think about what they want in a school. My son’s priorities were strong academics, large school with strong school spirit and athletics, midwestern. Therefore he applied to Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota (home state). He got into the last three; visited Michigan and Wisconsin for a 2nd time and make his choice. Worked out well. He had no need to apply to other small schools, or those out West or East; as that isn’t what he truly wanted.</p>
<p>I see that Harvard has deferred 2/3’s of its EA applicants, and deferrals appear up at most Ivies and other top schools save for Stanford. I think it is ridiculous that the top universities cannot make up their minds about more of the applicants applying EA/ED. This makes it even more likely that the flagship state universities will get inundated in the next two weeks or so with very well-qualified applicants with little real interest in attending. For all of its other flaws, ED/EA is the one check on this proliferation of applications made possible by the common app, taking a lot of very well qualified students out of the running at state flagships very early in the process. But with all of these deferrals that appears less likely this year.</p>
<p>It seems to me that a school who defers an ED or EA applicant is really saying, “We’ll take you if we absolutely have to, but we’d rather not, so we’ll see what turns up in the RA pool and get back to you.”</p>
<p>I think I’d want to think twice about going to a school where I wasn’t really wanted.</p>
<p>(Leaving aside, of course, those deferrals that depend on first semester grades.)</p>
<p>Muckdog, why is it ridiculous that Ivies choose to see the applications coming in RD and not fill their classes from only EA/ED applications? Which they could do several times over. You seem to be implying that Ivies should be completing their classes in early Dec.</p>
<p>ED/EA brings in apps from a certain kind of student, especially, with an ED school, students who can afford to pay the full ride without needing to see the financial aid package. Ivies want to see more of the kids whose parents told them “What! Harvard! We can’t afford to send you there; forget it!” and are not aware that Harvard will make it possible for Jr to attend, if he is a student they want.</p>
<p>It’s not about not being wanted by the school, but about being wanted by a school that have only a limited number of spots in the freshman class that they always have to reject otherwise well qualified and desirable candidates. </p>
<p>Not only are applicant qualifications quite similar and any distinction among them arbitrary after a certain point, it’s very understandable that the school would want to see what kind of apps it gets in the regular round to know what kind of candidates it has more need of to fill up the class, along with all the FA issues JRZmom mentioned. Oftentimes whether or not an applicant is admitted has a lot to do with institutional needs (are we short on science kids? bands and orchestras all filled? minorities and underrepresented areas?) than the specific sets of qualifications of the actual applicant. No need to take it personally.</p>
<p>My daughter notified both UVA and UMich as soon as she heard of her ED decision. Both schools have cancelled her applications. We could have waited until she sent in her deposit (Jan 13), and she was kind of curious to know if she would be accepted, but I told her that it wasn´t the right thing to do.</p>