My god. I was just saying. Not everything I say needs to be dissected 
And to assume that I am not curious and enthusiastic about what I do is just rude.
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You wrote that you will slack off if you don’t have a chance at HYPSM. So it is natural that some would assume, from that statement, that you are not learning for learning’s sake but to get the GPA for those schools.
Character counts for admission and that is more important than the .02 GPA gap. People are responding to help because you asked for help. Maybe try being nicer?
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Actually, it’s not rude. But I will assume there will be no ad hominems from anyone on this thread.
Any user who posts requesting feedback should expect some frankness and candor. There should be no expectation of an avalanche of responses filled solely with sunshine and rainbows. 
Getting back to the original question, as a data point of one, I was accepted into a couple of HYPSM schools without a hook and with a GPA <4.0. But in the interest of full transparency, I also attended a highly rated HS.
Oh, and LGBTQ is not a hook.
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For sure, a good example that it can happen. How long ago was that just out of curiosity? I ask because a thousand years ago my Dad had a fraternity brother at MIT who got put on academic probation and asked to leave to get his grades up elsewhere. He went to Princeton. 
It has gotten progressively more random.
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I graduated 2 years ago.
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There is no difference between an UW 4.0 and an UW 3.98. But even with a perfect ACT/SAT, you’re not likely to get in unless you have very strong EC’s, which it seems you may have.
Probably the highest achieving boy (white) in my kid’s highly ranked suburban high school, with wonderful ECs, but no extreme spike, is going to NYU, because he didn’t get into any of the tippy-top schools, and he definitely belonged at them, deserved to get into them. I couldn’t believe it. On the other hand, my kid, with an UW GPA of probably between 3.6-3.7, probably top 5% of class but nowhere near valedictorian, who took almost all the AP/honors classes, did get in, because of a very strong spike in one particular EC, in which he had a tremendous interest, since 8 yrs old, and for which he had won national recognition. So if you’re entering your junior year, I would focus on developing the thing you enjoy the most into the biggest spike you can get. Tippy-top schools seem to want the best (fill in the blank) in the country, who also has great academic achievement and excellent test scores, rather than the White or Asian valedictorian who had good, but not astronomical achievement in a variety of ECs.
Read this, by an Asian man who got into all the top schools (15 years ago). We didn’t follow any plan of any sort, but when we read this post last year, we realized that my kid had pretty much done exactly what this guy recommended - and it worked. Formula for success for unhooked White or Asian kid is do very well overall, and develop a tremendous spike.
About the debt. You’re saying that your parents are willing to pay about 50K/yr for college. You can only borrow on average 7K/yr for college. That leaves you 20K/yr short, and you cannot borrow it - only your parents can, for you. They shouldn’t, and neither should you. Going to one of these tippy-top schools is about who you meet there, the social connections you make, because the education at your flagship state U and at the T50 schools is just as good as at the tippy-tops. It’s probably not worth it for you or your parents to pay that much. Seriously, you may be better off at your flagship state U, and save 180K, or get a full ride (and with your academic record, you WILL be eligible for one) at one of the LACs or south/southwest state schools that are offering full rides, or at least full tuition, to students like you, especially if they have a great honors college. I met lots of grad students at my Ivy who had gone to their flagship state U for undergrad, very cheaply, and then went to grad school at the prestigious school. They still made the connections they needed to have made - they just made them in grad school. I’m saying you can do extraordinarily well at your flagship state U, and then go to tippy-top for your MBA/whatever.
You do, in my opinion, have a chance at the other Ivies, and the top LACs, if you are dead-set on paying 75K/yr for a prestigious school.
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Life is a marathon, not a sprint. It sounds as though that extra .02 on your GPA is going to come at some heretofore undisclosed cost. I’m not sure what it is. Only you can say for sure what that is. Suffice it to say, that I do feel sorry for HYPSM to the extent that they have become known primarily as conduits to such a narrow band of careers. What ever happened to the concept of well-rounded classes?
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You are absolutely amazing. Seriously. Internalize how much you have already accomplished. If you continue your work habits, you have so much to offer any college!
Realistically, what everyone here is saying, the odds are not in your favor (or anyone’s favor, less than 97% at any Ivy).
If you are smart and organized enough to to maintain a 3.98 gpa, you will continue to succeed in many colleges. So… if you were my child, I would advise you to be very selective about ED because you have very good odds at admission to certain highly selective (non-Ivy) schools. It doesn’t hurt to throw in any Ivy application, but know that the odds are not in your favor and you could be wildly successful at other similarly “prestigious” schools.
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Regarding the CDS numbers, I suspect they are using weighted GPA as listed in the table II at https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.thecrimson.com/pdf/2018/10/29/1333554.pdf . So the OPs 3.98 would covert to 4.28, which is more than the average GPA of 4.18, as listed in the CDS.
If you look at the summary of the academic rating section in the document, none of the academic ratings require perfect grades. This is true even for the top rating that less than 0.5% of applicants received.
In short, unhooked kids are regularly admitted to all of HYPSM with 3.98 type GPAs like the original poster. You can find some examples in the decisions threads of this site. Rather than focusing on the getting the pinnacle of highest stats such s 3.98 vs 4.0, the colleges often focus on other criteria.
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You seem to be very confident about yourself, to the extent that your mystery ECs are so super-secret, but “thematic”.
If they are so special, you have a single-digit chance of getting into an “HYPSM”. If they are not so special, you have a single-digit chance of getting into an “HYPSM”. Same with your GPA at 4.0 or 3.98 UW,
No one really knows about “HYPSM” admissions. So, to be frank, the answer is “who knows”?
Moreover, you do get the point that there is no such thing as “HYPSM”, right? These are all very different schools that differ in terms of institutional, program, and major strength, at the very least.
Why don’t you try “MXYZPTLK”? That’s as good as “HYPSM”. 
I don’t mean to burst your bubble, but “HYPSM” is meaningless. If this is your college admissions focus, it demonstrates that you are more interested in a brand name than you are in your education.
With all due respect, I would caution you to reconsider that view. No one will care where you went to college if you are good at whatever it is you want to do. I have a child around your age, and I am trying mightily to steer my child away from a notion that success is measured in terms of nonsense like “HYPSM”.
Indeed, you seem to even slam T-20 schools, as if the only meaningful schools are “HYPSM”. You really need to reconsider.
Good luck.
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Because that name is already taken by an imp from the 5th dimension. 
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@JohnAccruet, your gpa is fine for admission to the schools you are attracted to, but my gut is that you will not be admitted, based on a number factors, many of which have been identified by others. On the bright side, you will likely end up at another very good school that will let you in mostly because of your stats; the same ones you are worried will keep you out of HYPSM.
Based upon that response, I am a doubter. I have seen the movie.
That’s fine. It is a massive relief, then, that your gut does not have anything to do with or decide my admission, or even the process before that. I feel ten pounds lighter.
Feels like we’re done here. Or, getting close to it. 
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OP- Yes, one A- isn’t going to be the difference between an acceptance or a denial, even at top schools.
What everyone here is trying to tell you is that the attitude that is coming across in your writing could very well derail you if it comes across in your application.
There are some very knowledgable posters who have taken the time to respond to you, including some who work in college advising, are alumni interviewers, etc…
I did alumni interviews for one of the Ivies for more than two decades. One of the most famous rejection stories I heard from admissions was of a hooked, high stats, legacy student who was denied because the theme of their application was basically “my resume speaks for itself”.
Best of luck to you.
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I’m sure they are knowledgeable. Although I don’t see how working in “college advising” makes you any more privy to the process than the rest of us.
But one thing a lot of adults don’t seem to understand is how many people fake and win this game. Go to a rich Bay Area public school and you will know what I’m talking about. There is also a famous acceptance story I heard, where a girl started a nonprofit teaching art to kids, after going to a college counselor. She would not have done it but to get into elite schools, and she ended up winning some awards for it. And after she applied, she received notes from a Yale AO talking about how much the AO loved her passion for what she did. This girl is now attending Stanford.
I understand many of you would rather someone do what they like and go to a state school, and save money, than do things for college and get into an Ivy League. However, it is also important to be realistic. The majority of unhooked applicants are doing the majority of what they are doing, for the sake of college applications. If they weren’t, then explain why almost 1/3rd of every graduating Ivy class goes into consulting or finance? Surely they could make a living wage pursuing the passion that got them into an Ivy? And if they were really that passionate, it wouldn’t be that easy to switch into another field.
I am not saying I am doing what I do for college apps alone. But even if I was, I really doubt anyone could see it - I mean, isn’t the whole point of essays to talk about yourself as a person? Not your extracurriculars or whatever?
Again, for what it’s worth I am certainly passionate about what I do. I just want to get something out of it.
I agree. The snark that the OP is displaying is rude to users trying to help, contrary to my post earlier in the thread, and in violation of ToS. I cannot imagine anything more can be said and the discussion is going in circles. Closing.
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