Knowing how many other kids got into UPENN from your school helps, but also look at how many are athletes or legacies.
I would suggest taking a look at the threads for the admissions decisions for UPenn in the past couple years to get an idea for what the profile is like for admitted students.
My DD got in to UPenn RD (Deferred from ED). At the time she applied, she was not in the top 5% of her (very competitive) class with a 3.89 uw and 35ACT. She did have what I thought were some very impressive ECs that were lumped into three main areas: arts/dance (she performed at our local amusement park), career interest supporting (starting a debate club at school, participating in Model United Nations and winning awards through that) and service (peer mentor at school and expanded a local non-profit) There were other things she did and she had recognition on a national level in one area that aligned with what she wanted to study. When she applied, we thought she had a shot at it, but wasn’t really sure.
But don’t expect the money to come through if you don’t have what they want you to pay. That wasn’t my experience.
Just for reference, the updated middle 50 percentiles for admitted students for Penn:
Every kid deserves a reach school on their list. So, if UPENN is her one, then go for it. However, she needs to create a list of schools that “fit” her profile based on her actual scores, grades, ECs, teacher/counselor recommendations, etc. Then create a list of matches and safeties - all schools that she also likes and would be happy at. Any school, especially a top tier school, where your scores are in the lowest 25 percentile of students is a huge stretch. To be honest, it is a crap shoot for those in the top 25 percentile also. Everyone is entitled to dream, but you as the parent should throw a good dose of sanity into the mix. If you’re willing to pay the fee to apply to one tippy top reach, then go for it.
If she doesn’t have the test scores, every other part of her app would need to knock it out of the park: essays, recs, ECs. Try to apply to one of the lesser competitive programs. Although transfer within the school is hard, it can be done.
Why does she want to be the first family member to go to an Ivy? That is not a good reason to apply. Where did that idea come from? Is her school hyper-competitive? I would get to the root of it and help her get educated on the many great schools out there. As everyone said, she can of course apply but her chances are probably slim.
To max the chances to get into Penn, your kid would want to apply ED.
Trying to get in via RD is like playing the lottery – 7% RD admit rate. Most average/excellent kids with near perfect stats get rejected in the RD round.
But consider using that strategy realistically. Applying to Penn ED means you can’t apply early to most other schools using SCEA, REA or ED (although there are some allowed exceptions). Shooting and missing with the ED silver bullet means your kid will be churning out many applications at Christmas time and most of your decisions won’t become available until the RD dates in late March. Which then sets you up for a crazy compressed scramble during April as you try to attend admitted student visits and try to figure out where the money works.
Also, run the NPC at Penn before shooting the ED bullet. Since your kid won’t attend any school where you can’t pay (even if admitted).
Last, your kid’s best test scores will most likely come next fall (that was the case with all of mine). Compare the initial ACT results and SAT results to see which one suits your kid better. Prep for the preferred test over the summer, and then take it for stakes at the very beginning of senior year.
Penn Alum here…also father of student rejected last year ED. A few thoughts. First, ED is a must; the acceptance rate ED is significantly higher than RD. Getting in RD is a challenge because at that point they are just rounding gout the class (for the most part…and yes I’m making a generalization). Second, get the SAT or ACT score within their range. Third, and this is the hard one: why should they accept her? How is her presence on the campus going to make campus a better place? What is it that makes a guidance counselor and teacher at her school say “you gotta take this kid?”
It is a terrific school for sure. I feel incredibly fortunate to have attended it (when they accepted a much higher percentage of applicants!). That said, there are lots of great schools out there. My son ended up at his other top choice and he would tell you today that he ended up exactly where he should be. 
Good luck!
My DS17 is at UPenn now in SEAS - applied RD. Regeneron semifinalist, into robotics, CS club pres., national FBLA tech related awards, school awards for a few things, orchestra (violin), 35 ACT, 800s on 3 SAT subject tests, a healthy number and types of AP courses, 4.0 GPA - salutatorian (but found out later) - school does not rank. Truly passionate about engineering (EE in particular), an IT guy etc. - his activities, essays and ECs all showed a really clear picture of who he really is and it seems a pretty good fit for him so far as he has found Penn Electric racing a fantastic EC and his classes are engaging and challenging. My advice is for your daughter to pursue activities she really loves and do as well as she can in them, try for some leadership and recognition & to tailor her essays to paint a picture of how she’d contribute to the school and make the most of what it has to offer. I do agree that ED has significantly higher chances. My son had a number of other schools he would have been happy to attend so I do caution that it is important to think more broadly - there are lots of great schools out there! Getting into a very highly selective school without a major hook is very tough these days.
@AbsDad I have had two children go to colleges that meet your definition. Neither had super high test scores although both had excellent (though far from perfect) grades and were very involved. I think it was the ‘non tangible’ dimension of their applications that made the difference, in their cases having gone to school overseas as we were moved about and making the most of that experience.
Having since met many of their friends, one thing I noticed is that they all seemed to really stand out in some way, either holding a very prestigious academic scholarship (Gates, Intel etc); having a special talent (and I’m not talking about recruited athletes); having overcome sometimes incredible adversity; or coming from places that are pretty remote (North Dakota, for instance). It was their non-academic dimensions that really distinguished them.
Again, and it is just our experience, but we found that super competitive colleges like Penn, Columbia, Amherst and Pomona were willing to look at kids who didn’t have spectacular ‘credentials’ whereas we felt that places like Georgetown and the UCs were incredibly focused on stats.
@GreatKid I’d add a word of caution about going on the basis of CC. It’s a self-selecting audience and not always representative. My experience of the Ivies is that relatively few students excel “across the board”. Rather, students at these colleges seem to be very bright and accomplished but–importantly–to have distinguished themselves in particular areas. We shouldn’t forget that places like Harvard get 40,000 applications and only a couple hundred post here.
@suzy100 That might well be the case at a place like Penn. I’ve heard of similar cases at Columbia and know a family that experienced a sudden death that precipitated a financial crisis. The University of Michigan stepped in with some pretty amazing financial aid even though they were OOS. The mother told me they were very moved by the responsiveness of Michigan’s financial aid office.
@suzy100 I don’t know whether you don’t believe my post, or believe what the therapist said, but for a fact she said it.
@Twoin18 She is absolutely top 5 to 8%. She has been every year of school, except one year when she was top 3%.
My D is a senior with very high stats much higher than posters D with almost perfect SATs and 12 APs. She has applied to 2 ivies with no expectation of acceptance. She has a long list of music ECs. We think she will definitely make the first cut but after that who knows? She has had several friends a year ahead with jaw dropping accomplishments who were rejected not wait listed or deferred…rejected from Ivies. Your D will have to seriously raise her test scores to even make the initial cut unless she has a serious hook. Yes she can take them again but some Ivies and top tier schools want all test scores not just one sitting. Taking tests multiple times can really hurt you in admissions. 2 is fine three frowned upon. If she is really serious I’d recommend really studying for round 2. Mine took the entire summer before senior year to up her math score, it worked but took serious commitment. It is really important to manage expectations but no harm in shooting for the stars. There are some really amazing schools out there that are not Ivy league. Some Ivies don’t get good marks on teaching. I do not anticipate mine will go to an Ivy. I am not sure I want her to. Take your D on college tours…she may prefer the smaller LAC type school or the large flagship state U. Start with colleges you can drive to and see what type of school suits your D. Check out women’s colleges. Smith and Wellesley are amazing schools with stellar reputations. Good luck! By the way mine used Khan academy and practice tests to study.
Who says 3 sittings are frowned upon. The closest I’ve ever heard was at a presentation at our high school. The Vassar admissions rep said, “If you took the SAT four times we might wonder why you had nothing better to do on Saturday mornings, but we know everyone has an off day or two.” The other reps, I can’t remember the exact mix, but I believe, Cornell, Yale, Harvard and Dartmouth were all present nodded. They said they absolutely don’t care if you take it twice. They aren’t impressed by one and done.
I agree with others that she probably needs to bring up her scores to have a seat at the table. At that point something else about the application has to sing. My kids were involved in some school activities, but I think what made them most interesting to the admissions officers was what they did outside of school. They also both went for amusing in their essays. I think they came off as likable and clever. Too many kids get overly earnest and verbose in their essays, they don’t sound like real kids any more.
@AbsDad - most colleges that meet 100% need will also adjust and supplement aid if there is a significant change in circumstances impacting the students’ finances. So your daughter’s therapist may well have been in that position – but that’s not a Penn thing, that’s a financial aid policy thing – and it is a reason to favor 100% need schools if your family qualifies for need-based aid – but not a particular reason to apply to a particular college in the first place. It is also a case-by-case thing that is no guarantee – the college would still be looking at the big picture of overall family assets and income sources.
I wasn’t questioning you, OP. If what the therapist said is true then I’m sure there’s a lot more to that story.
My DD is a senior at Penn. Accepted with a 32 ACT, about 1420 SAT (she took the “old” version, and 2 subject tests with scores over 700. That said, it’s truly all about the rest of the resume. Be unique, be a leader, be diifferent.
“Wanting an ivy” absolutely won’t do - we were all shocked when my daughter was accepted. She truly loved the school, visited twice, was able to cite programs and professors.
@mathmom I have heard several schools mention this as well as our HS counselor. I agree nothing impressive about one and done but if you are applying to a school that asks for all test scores…three times one test is not going to help you at all. Did you read my post I said three times not one and done and that two times is perfectly acceptable. Maybe an admissions person will weigh in here.
I definitely agree that every kid deserves to shoot for a reach. But it is absolutely critical that she has a good mix of match and safety schools too, and it’s only a good match or safety if it’s affordable and someplace that she would enjoy going to. For example,if she’d hate to go to Penn State, then that’s not a safety or match for her.
I also think it’s really important that kids not get too slammed in this process, so you need to think about how many realistic anticipated rejects your daughter can comfortably handle and the timing of those anticipated rejects. To me, any college with an under 10 percent admissions rate is an anticipated reject, even if you have perfect stats.
With regard to timing, I looked up U Penn’s Early Decision program on the U Penn website. According to that, if your D applies ED to U Penn, she can’t apply ED anywhere else. There was no prohibition on applying to another school Early Action, as long as that other school’s EA program is non-binding and non-restrictive, nor was there a prohibition on applying rolling admissions or regular admissions before U Penn sends out an acceptance. I think that’s important to know and you need to verify that for next year. Assuming it remains the same, then your D can apply to several schools EA and rolling, and find out the results from those schools around the same time as hearing back from U Penn on its ED decision. That way, if your D receives a rejection or a deferral from U Penn, hopefully she will have an acceptance from another school around the same time. If she doesn’t apply to any EA or rolling admissions schools and has to wait until April before hearing back from any other school, it’s awfully hard to be sitting on just a rejection from Mid-December until April 1st.
The other comment I have is about Naviance or whatever program you will use to see how your D’s admissions chances will be coming from her school with her stats. I found this to be useless at my D’s high school because all of the kids were so unique. So if your D is unhooked, she doesnt have the same statistical chance of admissions as someone who is a recruited athlete, under-represented or over-represented minority, legacy, national award recipient, child of someone either famous or wealthy enough to donate a building, etc. Your D might think she knows the stories of the kids who got accepted from her school the past couple of years, but it’s amazing how many kids do amazing things outside of school and the classmates simply don’t know about it. So while Naviance will give you some information, you can’t count on it too much.