Is Class of 2026 An Outlier Year for College Admissions?

In my D22 private school 200 people
Mid level Students are getting better admission offers than-top students across the board . And yes , it’s 340k for baccalaureate education ….

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My son’s experience exactly. #1 in class, outstanding stats, and we’re stunned to have only 1 out of 5 so far be an outright acceptance. Very shocking, and I don’t expect good news from the remaining three, Columbia, NYU and Georgetown. :frowning:

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At least one is good !))))

You betcha, it’s fantastic! A 50% scholarship even, to UMiami.

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Congratulations!!!

It is 78 degrees and sunny in Miami today. I know he was disappointed with Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh where it is currently 19 degrees.

I think he has experienced divine and inspired intervention😀 congratulations!!

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It does seem that way at our small public. But the class is bifurcated - half have a diversity or 1st gen hook and the other do not.

However, they are not offering enough FA to the accepted students.

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You are so right, I do believe in “love the school that loves you back!” My DD is at FIU, so having his sister in town is such a plus. I hope he chooses this (if there are choices left) because he wants it, and doesn’t think this is anything but a blessing.

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Same with our school. Top 10% and those over 1500 are left with little to nothing. In many cases, the 25% and lower scores are getting acceptances and the top students are denied.

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To the same schools? Or are the kids a little lower in the class applying to schools outside of the top 30? That’s not an apples to apples comparison if they aren’t applying to the same colleges. Of course tippy top schools are harder for tippy top students to get into than more mid-ranged schools for the kids in the top 20-30% of the class.

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Same schools. The top kids might have been using them as more likely. In most cases, we are talking about the kids who got accepted being what was the norm, let’s say BU. SAT scores around 1400-1450, many A’s, some B’s and normal ECs getting in. The top kids aren’t getting offers, outright rejections. Tiny school. Very well regarded normally kids above get into these schools easily ( from data like Naviance) includes last three years so also some post Covid data.
This year it changed a lot.

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And did those top kids in prior years go to BU? If not, there’s your answer. If BU keeps letting in the top kids and they don’t enroll, then BU stops admitting them.

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Yes, hard to assess all this as the data only shows acceptances not who attended which school. But the point I’m making is that top kids aren’t being given a choice in their options. Locked out of the top 20-30 schools. We’ll see once all the Ivys are released. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty.

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Is it possible that the students a bit below on scores have a hook - meaning first gen or legacy or urm?

The scatterplot phenomenon you describe has been happening at kiddo’s school for a few years. It is the unhooked high scoring kids that seem to be left out. Not sure, but I suspect even more-so this year.

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Nope, no hooks. Kids are comparing notes as it seems to be pretty extreme. Wow, kid who is outstanding is still looking for a decent acceptance anywhere. Overall, I do think that most kids have fewer acceptances this year than the last three years.

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It’s really heartbreaking to see . Kids work their tales off for 4 years , only to see that other less credentialed classmates get better choices of acceptances . How this should
make them feel ?? What explanation we should
Give them ? It’s not about true competition anymore .
The system so truly broken .

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We definitely have schools that yield protect from our high school. Schools like Wake Forest, NEU, and others. If you are in the tippy top of our class and do not ED then you do not get in. Maybe WL in RD or deny. Kids in the second decile from our school more likely to get in RD than the top kids. Those colleges have identified who is going to come and who is not.

Can you not find out who enrolled at which colleges from your high school? it’s kind of key info when trying to figure out who will be accepted any given year. Maybe our town is nuts but, even in our big graduating classes of 700 each year, one can figure out about where someone might lie on Naviance and our school publishes where everyone goes to college.

I don’t think you should be so surprised if top kids don’t get into certain schools and some of their classmates do. It takes some work and some insight but, in the end, I think most of the decisions do make sense in the end. I think I know exactly why each of our kids got their WL and denial decisions, much of it based on who else applied from their high school and the history of who was accepted in the past and who enrolled.

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say that most tippy top kids don’t end up with dozens of options in the top 20 schools unless they are URM or have a REALLY big EC that is captivating to many colleges. Many top kids get into a small handful or maybe just one top 20/25 school. It’s just a numbers thing. Whenever I see a student here on CC with multiple top acceptances (let’s say more than one Ivy and big scholarship at Vandy and in at Berkeley), those kids are geographically desirable or URM or national phenom in something. Super smart kid from CA or NJ? Not usually raking in the acceptances at that level.

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It won’t be pretty …

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NEU pulling the same shtick in our school . 6 mediocre kids offered admission. From top 10 who Applied only rejection or waitlist. One kid on top 10 list by GPA was TO , got in. He also got into to BU . They all have comparable EC s , so
I don’t think it’s about that .

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Interesting, this describes my DS to a “T”. We figured it was a “high target”, but a target nonetheless. Straight up rejected (and a little heartbreaking; maybe the only school he really wanted on the east coast). He has good choices, but this year has been hard and unpredictable re. some schools - for both him and his peers.:neutral_face:

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