I dont think this discussion is geared to the specifics of any one applicant, but the general trends seen in applications this year.
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Yep general trends. Canât create an outlier year with a single applicant. But you have to have some data points along the way. Iâm sure someone will compile all the stats for this year soon.
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There is no doubt that schools are building models that take into account the probability of acceptance. College admissions admins are very aware of the admission cycle statistics in terms of # applications, # acceptances, and # to enroll based on yield management and its impact on future rankings.
Schools are bypassing students who are determined less likely to enroll, but otherwise qualified in an effort to increase their yield and thus lower their acceptance rate.
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This is very interesting. Makes me wonder about the purpose and relevance of evaluating students at this level in forming a class. So, in choosing Student One, might the admission committee conclude, âWe have enough initiative takers, now we need some students with empathy?â
I also wonder whether admission offices track admitted (and enrolled) students over time to see whether the impressions created in their minds are actually accurate.
This folds into what I have been reading a lot of parents say on CC: They are indignant about certain âdeservingâ kids not getting into where they think they should, but when pushed they admit that those kids never intended to go to the given school and have been accepted at schools where they would matriculate.
Kids can only attend one school. Of course, we all want them to be able to choose one of their favorites, and being able to compare merit and FA is nice. But itâs only good business for schools to want to accept who wants to attend, not just for rankings purposes but especially to decrease the cost of student acquisition. There has to be a price to colleges for going to the waitlist, and I have to think they will want to minimize it.
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Presumably that is what early decision is for, to ascertain those students most certain to matriculate
The problem seems to be one of trickle down to some degree also though. These same students are also seemingly getting shut out of traditionally harder acceptance schools as well, and therefore they would have chosen to attend the traditionally less reach schools.
No one is entitled to an acceptance, but this will only exacerbate the trend of applying to more and more schools. The App companies (Common, Coalition) are thrilled with more business and schools arenât complaining about an increase in applications (and the associated fees).
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ED is not a tool that the majority of students can use. The timing is early for many to commit especially the last 2 years with limited ability to visit, and the majority of families arenât in a position to not have the ability compare schools by FA/merit offerings. It benefits wealthy students, not the bulk of applicants.
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ED is a terrible option for most and favors those that can afford full-pay. Students should be able to make choices.
A radical idea would be to alter EA and/or ED to make it non-binding, but require a commitment earlier than the RD deadline. That way you can make a choice, but have to turn it down before they enter the RD round if you donât plan to attend.
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While that is stated frequently, students do have the option of declining an ED acceptance if the financial package is insufficient.
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I agree. We are in a vicious cycle now, with more uncertainty that leads to more apps/applicants which leads to more apps at each schoolâŠwhich leads to more uncertainty and less predictability.
Perhaps as more colleges move away from TO, some stability will return to the system. My 2022 benefited from TO, but I do see value in test scores.
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Those arenât the students that it affects the most. We are a full pay family, but have no generational wealth or significant assets. We were not able to create fully-funded 529s for our kids. No one should feel sorry for us, but we â like many, many full pay families â were not in a position to commit to paying $80,000/year without seeing other options. Most families, even full pay ones, are in that position.
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This is a murky areaâŠitâs not intended for people with a certain EFC to decline it if the schoolâs aid package is close to that. Yes, if the aid package is radically different than what the NFC indicated, but not to be released from the binding agreement and then enroll in a different school that ultimately costs around the same OOP.
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A good example would be Fordham. My 2022 applied EA and received a substantial merit award. If she had applied ED, itâs unlikely she would have gotten anything given that she would have been committed to going regardless.
Applying EA doesnât give one great odds at a school that has ED, but there is no way we could commit $320k without knowing if there were more affordable options.
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Exactly. I might decide the aid package is insufficient, but the school (and FAFSA) disagree â I didnât feel comfortable going the ED route in that scenario.
If more schools offered the guaranteed financial aid pre-read, it might be different.
Right now â I have no hard data proof â it FEELS like perhaps selective schools are grabbing their best full-pay high-income applicants during the ED round, then filling out their class with a more geographically and SES-diverse group in the RD round (leaving a lot of private school and high-income applicants from schools with a history of many admits receiving waitlists or rejections instead).
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Well, that is the way ED has worked for many years-the affluent eager, and the underprivileged Questbridge set are admitted, leaving the rest to RD to fill out the class.
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No one said that this was a new phenomenon. You insinuated above that ED was the only significant way colleges could ascertain who is most likely to matriculate. My point was that isnât the only way, because the vast majority of applicants are unable to commit in that way. Schools are able to use other indicators.
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When people look at others who were admitted, they probably donât know as much about a kidâs ability to pay, and at many many schools, thatâs a factor.
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Not sure, but I have heard that colleges will track how well students do from a particular high school and that gives them an idea if that high school is preparing them well. And I know - âI have heardâ isnât anything for sure but I âhave heardâ from some private counselors and I donât think they have a reason to lie and Iâm also sure itâs not every college.
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While they might not have had the same ârigorâ, they all have their own unique qualities to bring to campus.
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