Is Class of 2026 An Outlier Year for College Admissions?

Indeed. The use of the word “mediocre” to describe kids getting into great schools is disheartening

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Absolutely. Of course, the same is true using a simple lottery. Every high school grad can contribute something in their own way.

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At the University my husband worked as an AO the rigor of the high school the student was from was a big factor in the admission process.

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I have heard the same thing.

I have also heard that colleges track students’ academic performance by high school but here I was referring to whether they track how accurate their impressions of a students’ character (e.g., empathetic) turn out to be, since they seem to be making admission decisions based on it (at least in the scenario described above).

Thanks for all the comments. My take away from the comments; Yes, 2021 and 2022 have been outlier years for ‘elite’ college admissions, but this trend may continue for two reasons. 1. Test optional/test blind policies are causing a surge in applications to elite colleges, this will likely continue, and 2. Elite colleges’ increased focus on diversity (including international and first gen students) in addition to the surge of applications for the remaining spots after hooked students are admitted (legacy, development, athlete, and faculty/staff related), is resulting in fewer admits for students who do not fall into one of both of these categories.

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I’m not certain about that. MIT has just announced they will require test scores next cycle. I won’t be surprised if other elite colleges will too. Yes, test optional is increasingly common and that trend will probably continue across the board, but I think tippy tops will go back to requiring scores.

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I would agree except for the pending SC case. If Harvard loses at the Supreme Court I don’t think they will bring back test required - and other schools will follow suit. They will want to maintain the ability to admit who they want, and if the court case goes against them, eliminating or minimizing test scores will aid them. That’s just my .02 and I could very well be wrong.

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I think it is a terrible way to talk about other kids. Unless you have access to the entirety of another student’s application you have no idea what they might be bringing to the table. Unfortunately, there is NO formula for getting into more selective colleges and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Even at schools where an applicant has, say, a 75% change of getting in, that still leaves a 25% chance of rejection. When it comes to schools that reject 80%+ of applicants I just don’t understand how so many parents can be confident that their child will be admitted and, then, be upset when they aren’t.

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If Harvard loses the case, all it means is that colleges can’t use race as a factor in their holistic admissions. I’d expect these colleges to continue practicing holistic admissions. How much they weigh test scores (or none at all) is still completely up to them. If MIT finds test scores are useful for evaluating at least some of their applicants, Harvard will likely find that to be the case as well.

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The UCs and California tried to repeal race blind admissions and weren’t able to. Race blind admissions have resulted in some campuses being 50-70% orm, with abismal numbers of urms, not a good thing if you want actual diversity. Test optional is another way for them to engineer a class without it being just a numbers game of test scores and gpa. They also started looking at high schcool zip codes for the purpose of creating diversity without using race. I think test blind is here to stay in California.

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Let’s not forget that being test optional is a huge cash cow for schools. Schools may decide that the cash influx and beneficial yield numbers make it all worthwhile.

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I would bet that the more relaxed covid restrictions had a huge part. States were open and kids could go to class in person and have a “normal” college experience rather than be online.

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I think that is right. I’d also add a third prong, which is that there was a lot of grade inflation during Covid because of online schooling. Grade inflation combined with test optional made it more difficult for AOs to rely on grades and test scores to distinguish between applicants. Grade inflation may continue but not to the extent it took place during Covid.

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It’s one thing to not get into Williams, which is arguably the best LAC in the world. A local girl with a 1580, spotless rep, and otherwise great stats was WL’ed for Wisconsin, and she applied for a female starved faculty!
In general, though I would say that the students at the local HS are not smarter than they were 4-5 years ago, and might be worse due to time missed from covid. The top 5 % might be more savvy about applying to elite schools, and students in general are applying to more colleges, but that’s about it. All I can figure is that yields are going to go down, and waitlists are going to be more of a thing?
Oh, and this is just anecdotal, but both S1(college) and S2(HS), reported that cheating was rampant during covid, so relying on grades and ignoring testing might have further confused matters.

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I just read Tufts’ newsletter as my DS was accepted and it’s numbers arguably support your conclusions. 40% of accepted applicants went TO; 11% foreigners; 56% of US applicants are of color.

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56% of applicants, or accepted students?

56% of accepted US applicants are of color. And 12% of all accepted applicants are first gen. Really impressive diversity numbers.

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Which begs the question (for me anyway), what % of posters on CC are POC and 1st gen :)?

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I guess one upside is ‘elite’ colleges are slowly losing truly elite students to ‘lesser’ colleges. This will change the notion of what ‘elite’ means, and hopefully students/parents will wake up to the reality that they were never really ‘elite’ in the first place, and not worth being bankrupted for. Many of my friends who are entrepreneurs, CEOs of public companies etc didn’t go to an ‘elite’ college.

I grew up extremely poor, but I’ve been extremely fortunate financially and my kids have benefited by attending ‘elite’ schools etc. I had to make sure I majored in something that would pay the bills and that I could pay for. I tell my kids that any college they look at requires them to do an ROI analysis of both major and cost of tuition. And I want to read their analysis. Just because I can pay for whatever they may want, doesn’t mean I will.

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