Is Class of 2026 An Outlier Year for College Admissions?

Top 50 colleges in the country is still elite. So, you’re basically looking at the T30 or so National Universities and the T15 or so National Liberal Arts Colleges. That is basically the difference between Harvard and UNC; the difference between the average Harvard student and the average UNC student is negligible.

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Firms are much more aware of the need to avoid appearing elitist, so much more outreach occurs. T25 schools do well in recruiting, rather than just HYPSM

I’m just catching up after spring break and this is one of the most fascinating posts I have seen. There is so much to digest here. Panicked kids, parents, and guidance counselors.

Religious Studies majors at LACs often have a ridiculously small sample size of students who do only a single major and do not pursue grad school. For example, in the Amherst report at https://www.amherst.edu/system/files/media/Career%2520Center%25202014-2015%2520Annual%2520Report_Final.pdf , there are no Religion majors who did not pursue a double major or grad school.

The Swarthmore 4-year report at https://www.swarthmore.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/career-services/2020%20Post%20Grad%20Plans%20by%20Major%20(for%20print%20non-color%20coded).pdf shows 2 religion majors who did not pursue grad school. One was software engineer in PA (suspect they were double major with CS), and the other was a business analyst in CT. Both reports show that most students working at Wall Street investment banking type jobs were econ majors, but not all of them.

Yale has a slightly large sample of Religious Studies majors, with 1/12 in finance and 1/12 in consulting. Yale’s sample of classics majors is significantly larger than religious studies. Among classics majors employed full time, the most common job functions were:

1 . Teaching --10/24 (mostly high school level)
2. Consulting – 3/24

The median starting salary shows large variation by major, suggesting major and career field have a large influence on future salary. The highest reported median salary majors at Yale are listed below.

1 . CS / CS double majors – $87k to $120k
2. Math / Applied Math / Stats / Math double majors – $84 to $90k
3. Econ-- $83k
4. Elec Eng – $80k

*. Religious Studies – $40k

Note that the highest starting salary major was CS. CS is also the highest starting salary major at the vast majority of Ivy+ type colleges, and usually is one of the 2 most common majors, in many cases the most common major. Perhaps the more significant change in recent years is the rise in popularity of CS majors, in some cases overtaking finance/consulting as the most popular career path. A 2020 news story at Yale mentions CS major enrollment has increased by a factor of 10x over the past decade. Other Ivy+ type colleges have also had large increases in number of CS majors.

Far more so than banking/consulting CS software engineering type positions absolutely do expect the applicant to learn about CS while in college. Software engineering employers will often auto reject applicants who do not have sufficient CS preparation and typically have a technical portion of interviews that tests CS skill set.

The vast majority of employers place little emphasis on name of college attended. Things like relevant work experience ./ internships, skill set/experience, and generally how successful the applicant is likely to be on the job are typically more influential. “Elite” finance/consulting are more the exception than the rule and are far from the only path to higher salary, among students for which a high salary is a priority. Many students are not enthusiastic about doing work they find unpleasant for what may be ~100 hours per week in a banking job, and have very different preferred career paths.

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One of life’s truisms: any time there is an attempt to change a complex system that favors people with resources, the people with resources will use them to manipulate the changes back to their advantage.

SATs were supposed to even the playing field. People with money bought tutors.

Athletes have an advantage? People with money get their kids on club teams and hire private coaches.

Research opportunities help? You can buy those now.

If people with money need to send their kids to T50 instead of T10, their kids will still find their way to elite consulting and investment banking firms. That change seems to be underway, per the comments above.

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I generally agree with this, but more objective measures are less influenced by resources. A kid who can barely score 1400 on SAT without tutoring is extremely unlikely to score 1560+ with tutoring, even with a test whose scores are highly compressed at the top.

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We actually hire very few on Wall Street from Ivys anymore. When we look at annual performance, it is the kids that work hard and want to prove themselves are the most successful. Of the ivy’s, Wharton still has good pipeline. Other than than that - a group of 10-20 schools all have general equal footing. Places like Michigan, UVa, UNC, Georgetown, etc. We find the balanced kids who don’t have arrogance and can pass the airport test do the best long term. Nothing against ivys - I just think people overthink this. There also plenty of good ivy kids - it’s the parents that go overboard on this topic.

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Anyone who’s ever taken classics, Latin, Ancient Greek or related knows that this is not an easy path. Way easier to take Spanish than Latin.

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Personally, despite many surprising results, I feel that the mistake was the list of schools a student applied to, and not so much the external factors that led to the surprising results.

Yes, people were not accepted to schools they might have been in another year (that wasn’t laden with shotgunning students and coming off of the covid craziness). But had they made comprehensive lists, inclusive of various tiers and types of schools, there would be many more happy outcomes.

I wonder if this experience in 2022 will actually help revamp the thought process going into college selection for next year and beyond.

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Colleges selective enough to be able to do that probably care for marketing reasons. I.e. marketing to future potential students (“see, students just like you happily study here!”) and donors (“see, students like your kids happily study here!”). Also, the colleges that traditionally served the social elites may want to make sure that enough of them (though L/D preferences in admission) are there so that the attraction to other students to be able to mingle with the social elites remains a part of their marketing. They may also want to ensure a relatively high SES environment, so that the few students they are promoting from low SES backgrounds get four years of practice interacting in high SES environments to prepare them for high SES futures.

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There were definitely students with reach-heavy lists that got shut out, but I think that happens every year. There’s a reason why the recommendation has always been to have a list that’s a mix of safety, match and reach schools - even if you’re a talented student, there’s only so many spots at T-20 schools to go around.

That being said, I do know anecdotally at my son’s high school there was only one student (in a class of ~500) that was admitted to a T-20 school this year. As recently as two years ago there were six such students, and that was considered a “normal” year.

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Yes, I totally agree. No question about it, kids were not admitted to schools they would have been admitted to in previous years.

In fact, our state flagship (UF) was the biggest surprise of all, not admitting students who would have gotten in easily in any other year. But now it’s ranked #28 nationally, after rising 22 spots since 2017 (after the state poured money into it to hire faculty to reduce the student/teacher ratio and fund research). It has become so coveted that many of the top students with stats to get into T20 (at least in previous years) were denied admission. When our daughter was admitted, it really became a huge conundrum for her because she never wanted to go in-state, and there was never a Florida school that could “beat” the T40’s that she was looking at, and she was among a small group that “made it in” which made her feel pressure to attend for its cost (lack there-of) and ranking. It was the hardest school to turn down. But it’s massive with 35,000 undergrad students and for at least the first 2 years, she would have 200 person lectures and she would not thrive (or attend those classes lol), and we will be handing the cost of undergraduate school so she will not incur debt.

However, most of the high stat students who did not make it in to UF had only applied to schools in florida as their other “safeties” instead of adding other amazing universities across the country — maybe less “popular” ones — and were left shell shocked at the only choices they had. I guess that’s what I mean by the mistake being in the list they created, because although they would never have dreamed of not getting into UF, had they added a couple of other types of great schools that were out of state and even a couple of the ones in-state that are more selective, they might be happier with where they ended up.

But I 100% agree that this year saw kids rejected or waitlisted who would have been accepted in previous years.

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To the risk of being non PC, as an international parent, I can tell you that the chances of a talented white male, going to pay for full tuition, STEM with Latin, strong EC, two music instruments, athletics captain and not a first generation were ZERO.
In my son’s school, we see a strong trend: Indian and Pakistani kids being admitted to elite US universities. They bring racial diversity, hold passports from developing countries, while they live in the Gulf so can pay for their full ride.

I am not saying they don’t deserve it but we also need to address the elephant in the room. Diversity should be looked at from multiple angles. I read in this thread someone mentioning the disadvantage for middle class kids with no hook. That is absolutely obvious.

I feel very sad that all that matters now are some statistics to please the crowd and make sure that the institution looks ‘good’ from a PR standpoint.

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Are you suggesting not one kid with that background or demographic was accepted?

Yes, correct.
My son got into a top LAC. But not in any of the 'usual’s suspects: Ivy or top public uni.
Same for similar demographics.

For example: if you get into UCLA, you will get Berkeley or the other way around.
It is very clear that there are some very specific filters being used because those admitted share the same profile (independent of ‘talent’).

I would agree that it has gotten extremely hard for some kids but it is impossible for you to make the assertion that not one kid fitting that demographic got into any Ivies given your limited visibility. I thought you were being hyperbolic.

Reality is kids within certain groups are undoubtedly having a tougher time but it’s not impossible.

A few years ago I was the third wheel of a very interesting discussion between a disappointed (Yale alum kid rejected) parent and a parent of a kid with a similar background who had been accepted. The disappointed dad went on and on about the URM, LGBQ, first Gen kids that “stole” his kids spot and how it was now impossible for a kid like his. The conversation came to an abrupt end when the dad of the accepted kid mentioned not impossible because his got in.

Reality is perhaps narrower lanes and consequently more competition within them but not “zero” chance.

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Two problems with the claim that this is about diversity goals:

  1. In diversity stats, all international students are in one category and do not count in race or ethnicity categories of US domestic students.
  2. In most elite universities in the US, among domestic students, Asian students are usually very overrepresented while White students are often underrepresented, so these universities have no reason from a diversity goal standpoint to try to increase Asian enrollment.
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I don’t agree that adding more “likelies” would make the kids who didn’t get into schools they expected to get into any happier with the results. They would have had to have dealt with fewer rejections and would have more options from which to select, but that doesn’t change not getting into the schools they’ve been expecting to get into for 4 years based on seeing where similarly ranked/scored students from their school have been accepted during their high school tenures. There is no list that accounts for many selective schools allocating 60% of their incoming classes to test optional applicants this year, nor is there a list that could have helped students who had to apply RD to deal with so many more slots going to ED applicants at many of the selective colleges.

If I had younger children who wanted to attend a selective college, I would absolutely tell them to not waste their time taking, let alone studying for, the SAT, because unless you can score a 1550+, I see little benefit, plenty of added stress, and lots of opportunity costs.

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Some colleges will require SAT or ACT.

However, it is the case that the current norm on these forums of high volume studying for those tests may be inefficient and therefore much more costly and stress inducing than how people took the tests a generation ago.

How are south Asian kids diversity? Way over represented at ivies, i would have thought.

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