Is engineering a bubble that will burst?

“We have to understand that the average engineer likely doesn’t have the endurance or mindset to pursue a medical degree, where the payoff only starts after about 11+ years of slogging vs. as little as 4 years for an engineering degree. The intelligence of the average engineer might also be slightly lower than the average doctor as well.”

Really?

An engineering education provides the foundation to go in many different directions. It’s true that most engineers are not rich, particularly if one remains more technical rather than pursuing sales or management. But, that’s a choice. The stereotype of the one-dimensional engineer is just that. In fact, most engineers I have worked with throughout my career are multi-talented, hard working, and good problem solvers. They can think through design problems, customer issues, legal/contract issues, etc. In order to have a long career, an engineer needs to be flexible and realize their education doesn’t end at the end of their 4 years in college. But, that’s true in a lot of fields.

Here’s how income potential is useful to an 18 year old- neurosurgeons make more money than nursery school teachers. Librarians make less money than personal injury lawyers.

But to cut the bologna thinner than that starts to be – well, baloney. There are so many factors that go into the labor market, and folks are usually looking at bad data (i.e. self reported with very few datapoints) when they talk about this stuff.

I could tell you that PR is a terrible field with lots of people who make 38K for working a stressful, 70 hour week. But that doesn’t mean that your kid shouldn’t go into PR- there are also lots of people who make $250K and up for highly interesting (still somewhat stressful) work with great long term potential to make even more money and do even more interesting things. And you only need a BA in most cases (an MBA doesn’t hurt but it’s not required; a degree in policy or a JD is great if you are interested in government affairs or lobbying but not required). And you will likely know by age 28 if you are any good at it and are on a fast track- still young enough to pivot to something else.

The current data on physicians is highly misleading- mainly because the trend towards hospitalists and large, multi practice specialties means that the old model of a doctor with a few colleagues owning their own practice is mostly dying out. So to look at an OB/GYN today- a 60 year old at the peak of her earning years, her comp reflects the fact that there is a lot of noise in the comp data. She owns a small building (very common) where her practice is based, but also rents out 7 other suites to other medical professions so she has rental income. She leases her equipment- very expensive equipment, particularly the imaging stuff- so has a built in incentive to use it as much as possible. Etc.

Ten years from now her business model will be obsolete. Her 35 year old counterpart is now an employee, making a fixed salary, no rental income, and no ability to bill as many patients as possible for the use and extra income from diagnostic testing.

I wouldn’t look at past ten years comp history of any physician and assume with any level of confidence that this model will hold. Doctors in the UK are well educated, highly respected, and earn civil servant salaries. True- 6 weeks vacation with no “on call” responsibilities. But they aren’t making the mega bucks either.

@VMT

I don’t think the section you quoted is a bad thing, or inaccurate. Most life sciences majors don’t have the endurance or stamina to become a doctor, either, after all.

I doubt it.

@blossom, We know a 60 + dentist that owns his own building, small practice and is definitely having trouble finding anyone that wants to take the practice over. . Apparently, that model may be fading in dentistry as well?

Of course, “intelligence” is not one dimensional. Some people who would be really good physicians would be poor engineers and vice-versa.

“We have to understand that the average engineer likely doesn’t have the endurance or mindset to pursue a medical degree, where the payoff only starts after about 11+ years of slogging vs. as little as 4 years for an engineering degree. The intelligence of the average engineer might also be slightly lower than the average doctor as well.”

Right. Because intelligent people can logically make this sort of connection based on data.

Not.

Wow, I have touched a nerve here.

I am not denigrating engineers. I am an engineer by training and have respect for the profession. I still use the analytical skills I learned even though I left pure engineering work almost 20 years ago, and the technology industry altogether about 10 years ago. In fact I am saying that engineering work for entrepreneurial types can be very financially rewarding.

Sevmom- I confess to knowing nothing about the economics of dentistry but if your dentist friend enjoyed the free for all years, I’m sure it is frustrating to see how the business model has changed- quite literally- underneath his feet.

We all remember the days when optometrists owned their own practice- sometimes their own building- and were both highly respected and highly compensated. I just bought a pair of bifocals at Costco (and got a free pair of prescription sunglasses) for a ridiculously low price. I was happy- sure. I’d have been happier to patronize my local optometrist/optician but I don’t think there are any left in my area. Between Lenscrafters and Costco and the other big chains… who can run an independent practice?

Sevmom - you are absolutely correct. My 55 yo H who owns his own practice (and runs it just like how blossom described) is going to have a heck of a time selling it in a few years for just those same reasons.

In the UK, the brightest (or perhaps a better word is ambitious) students are more likely to go into finance or engineering, which offer far better pay and benefits, than med school. The UK now greatly depends on foreign trained doctors (which are not trained to the same standard as domestic doctors). Financial incentives do make an impact on the careers chosen by students.

quote made up two-fifths – 39.4% – of the 7,500 year-on-year increase in the overall number of doctors, which rose to 267,150. Of the 267,150 doctors of all types registered with the GMC on 6 January, 97,915 (36.6%) were foreign-trained, including 34,120 (41.2%) specialists

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Just because data is imperfect doesn’t mean it is useless. Imperfect data just means you have to search harder to determine the range of likely outcomes. There is absolutely value in knowing for example that researchers interested in becoming a college professor have an extraordinarily difficult time in doing so, or that the term “starving artists” exists for a reason. Individuals can be highly successful in either of those areas, but the odds are against them.

For comparison:

http://www.bbc.com/news/health-34475955

Pizzagirl, He (and his wife, who I know well through my older sister) feel really stuck. They are 63 and 65 and ready to retire. They had a buyer but it fell through at the last minute. They would like to retire and play lots more golf but the broker has told them that if he cuts back too much on his schedule, the worth of the practice will go down. They may end up walking away and selling things off it they can’t find a buyer. They also had a young woman that they took on soon after dental school, and were grooming to take things over . But she decided she just wanted to be an employee and jumped to a very large corporate type dental group . I feel for them. They have built the practice up over decades ( the wife handles the finances, etc.) , have loyal staff and patients that they care about . It is causing a great deal of stress to try to close the practice. I hope things go smoothly when your husband is ready to retire. It sounds like he has been wonderful in his care for his patients. And I’m sure your support has been very helpful to him over the years.

My dad was an orthodontist. He missed the glory days over the past 15-20 years in terms of comp. But when he retired, he essentially gave his practice away. He found someone willing to take on his patients to complete their treatments. My siblings were bummed he didn’t sell his practice. Problem was, people were coming to see him. Not his building (he sold that a number of years before he retired and rented it back). Or his staff. So with him out of the picture, there really wasn’t anything to sell. I viewed that more as an accomplishment than anything else. It was him. And he practiced long enough to have former patients bringing their kids to him. Parents typically make the decision more than the kids. But when his patients had the choice for their kids (and their money) they picked him.

To sell his practice, he would have needed to bring someone on 10-15 years earlier and transitioned it over. But he never had an interest in doing that.

No one knows what the future holds in terms of comp for any career path (or even ability to have a job in any given field). But I know a lot of current docs who are sending their kids to medical school.

Sevmom and saillakeerie - yes, that’s exactly it. My H’s bigger concern is throwing his loyal employees out of work when he retires since it will be difficult to find a buyer. The value of a private practice these days is really in the equity of the doctor (who, of course, is leaving), not in the building or equipment (which is often leased anyway). But sorry for the derail on the thread.

Yes, they brought in a young woman that was supposed to transition in over the course of a few years but she jumped ship. They were kind of blindsided by that. Sounds like your dad was great. This guy’s patients also seem to really like him. And there is no guarantee anyone will like any new dentist they could sell to. I agree, it is a real accomplishment to grow any business, and have your patients or clients appreciate you.

I wonder if this is a regional thing–we are not seeing that type of pricing pressure for medical practices where we are, yet anyway.

I think I would have done very well at the academic part of medical school, but I don’t like the sight of blood! That’s why I went into engineering, instead. And it’s turned out to provide a nice lifestyle for us, working from home. We’re not rich, but we have flexibility and TIME!

In this area, it seems that the smaller MD practices are becoming less common, particularly in primary care. Primary care appears to be more likely to be findable in large multispecialty practices (with shared centralized billing and insurance handling) and concierge practices (some of which do not handle insurance paperwork, so patients need to deal with that on their own).

Small dental practices still seem to be common. But the newer ones seem to advertise a lot of cosmetic dentistry.