<p>Whoa, where’d the mob come from…</p>
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<p>Because getting them insurance wouldn’t make them stop going to the ER…</p>
<p>My math went as such:</p>
<p>16% of the population is uninsured. So, out of 1000 people 160 have no insurance.</p>
<p>20% of ER visits are from uninsured people. So if say 100 people went the ER from that 1000, 20 of them would be uninsured, and 80 would have insurance. So</p>
<p>840/80 = 1 in 10.5 insured people.</p>
<p>160/20 = 1/8 uninsured people.</p>
<p>If the uninsured people were insured, we’d expect only 1/10.5 of them to go to the ER.</p>
<p>160 * 1/10.5 = 15.24.</p>
<p>So the gain is 20 - 15.24 = about 4.75 less visits, or 95.25 visits instead of 100. This is a drop of 4.75%.</p>
<p>If, however, 1/5 of the 20 visits were from people who actually DO have insurance, in the form of savings which they use to pay for care, then the real number of uninsured visits would be 15, or about 1/10, which is the same number you’d expect if they were insured.</p>
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<p>Again, I think that’s a person’s choice to make. Do I think they would be wiser to not put care off? Yes, but it’s still their choice to make. I also think it would be wiser to not smoke, and not put off car repairs, and not eat twinkies, and not go on cruises off Somalia… But as long as they will pay for the consequences, or else have insurance to pay for them, it’s none of my business.</p>