So I’m curious. As someone who has had a less than favorable result in terms of college decisions (it seems like that’s been the case for a lot of people), and with the number of applicants rising as much as it has, do we think that this is what college admissions is going to look like from now on? And if so, why?
The only thing that has changed is the number of students that think they have a chance at more competitive schools. The actual number attending hasn’t changed. In the next few years, the number of high school graduates is going to be declining. It will become easier unless they get replaced by an influx of international students.
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For this year, there may have been a backlog effect from COVID, and also the test optional status for so many schools, which is new for some. Students seem to be applying to more and more schools, often in search of merit, and that also has an effect. agree with @Eeyore123 that the decline in teens and younger will make admission easier at some point.
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I think this is probably the third or fourth thread with the same theme in the last 48 hours. They should probably all be combined; just do a search for “Jeffrey Selingo”.
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I would assume it is indeed the new norm until you see clear evidence of a shift.
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Being the new norm implies some new stability. I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
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A couple of trends:
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Applicants (and their parents) underestimate how competitive it is to get into CS.
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A safety isn’t a safety unless it is affordable and the applicant is willing to attend.
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It’s harder for the kids that traditionally got in at higher rates (higher test scores) and easier for the kids who traditionally didn’t get in much at all (lower scores). That’s due to:
- test optional directly impacting how slots are allocated, reducing slots for high scorers and increasing slots for low scorers / non-takers
- ambiguity increasing the number of applications, reducing the chances for everyone
- schools having to manage yield more aggressively, reducing the chances for some
Considering the trajectory of grade inflation in high school, the increasing elimination of class rank, and few moves away from test optional, I see little evidence why this wouldn’t be the new norm.
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If one has a less than favorable result then one didn’t plan properly or understand the marketplace properly.
This has always been the case no matter the year or changing landscape.
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I agree that that test-optional has increased applications to many schools and may be a factor in some students disappointment. Many students that would not have applied to some schools due to low test scores now apply freely and easily. I hope that schools return to standardized testing as a way of having another metric. Without standardized testing, more weight will be given to ECs and essays as a differentiator to high GPAs from schools with varied academic standards.
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For schools that have a 6% acceptance rate, the chance of being one of them is akin to finding the 1s among all the Xs below. There are far, far more who don’t get in than do, and most have competitive applications.
We’re all just conditioned to think we’re the star of the show - the star never loses - when IRL, we’re just another player in it. It’s why folks need a school where there are a a lot more 1s in it even if they have a competitive app.
X X X X X X X X X X
X X 1 X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X 1 X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X 1
X X X X X X X 1 X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X 1 X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X 1 X X X X X X
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There are a variety of things going on.
Students from last year who took a gap year rather than online classes are in the pool taking slots.
Test optional means less self-selection and puts a wildcard in the admissions process.
Finally, selective schools have not been raising their number of slots with growth in population. I read a statistic somewhere that in the last 30 years , number of college bound seniors has increased 40% but the Ivy League has only increased slots 10%. That substantially cuts acceptance rates.
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(In addition to being a certain admit for the student.)
Hasn’t this always been true?
But it is also true that many parents and students do not realize this while making the application list.
Yes, but the trend seems to be that students are throwing applications everywhere - to schools they don’t want to attend and to schools that families can’t afford.
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And to schools they think are an easy in, only to find out otherwise.
A safety will often say, if you meet this gpa and/or test score you are an auto admit.
The kid with the 34 act and 4.0 who ‘assumes’ Maryland or Florida are safeties can be in for a rude awakening as an example.
They often assume they are borderline Ivy and these schools are beneath them.
A school that states with a 3.0 HS GPA and met the required classes…that is a safety. Hopefully there is one or more the student can love.
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“Holistic” admissions allow the top private colleges to take whomever they want, for whatever reasons. Test-optional greatly increases the potential pool of applicants for the highly selective schools, since now good students with low SATs can apply too, and get in. Many schools had huge freshman classes this year, since they had a significant number of the class of '24 defer into '25, and the same for all the upper classes, too, so their dorms and classes are stuffed. They might have decided to admit fewer people this year, since they just don’t have the space.
A person with your stats 40 years ago would have gotten into most of the highly competitive schools. Nowadays, unless you have some specific trait that the school is looking for, it’s a crap shoot. Every top student should plan on applying to their flagship in-state U for a safety, since they have no way of knowing whether they’ll get in anywhere else, and whether they’ll get merit money, or enough fin aid, if that is relevant.
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Unless you live in California!
If you live in CA, the CSU for your service area might be a “likely” but it depends on your major. Many majors are impacted and nursing and CS are competitive everywhere.
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Forgive me, but nursing applicants with 99th percentile SATs and top GPAs are going to get in to plenty of schools.
But yes, you are right, top students who live in CA are not guaranteed admission to UCB or UCLA in the most highly competitive majors. They would have to also apply to a less competitive UC school as a safety.
I’d say top students not guaranteed to most UCs. They’re all a crapshoot. Cal Poly too. Sure they may get in but they may not too, must have backup plan.
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UCSC, UCR, and UCM tend to be more likely, but many top students think those campuses are “beneath” them.
Re: CPSLO
They should publish their MCA formula and yearly thresholds for each major (similar to what SJSU does) so that prospective students can get an idea if admission will be realistic for them.
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