Ivy League Admissions Difficulty is Exaggerated

Applying to College
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<p>I think cptofthehouse has some very good points about geographic diversity. My state is large enough to have lots of applicants to all the top colleges, but far enough away from both coasts to be of interest to the top colleges on either coast. The HUGE advantage goes to students from the mountain west, where population density is low and most students don't reach a high level on nationally standardized tests. Any student who stands out in a mountain state can pretty much go wherever he or she wants. </p>

<p>It appears to me, subject to correction by more knowledgeable participants here, that every elite private college looks out for its IMMEDIATE area (e.g., Boston for Harvard, Silicon Valley for Stanford, etc.) and is very competitive for students from its REGION (because so many students apply from the most nearby region). It's a very good strategy for applicants to be willing to apply to a college far from home. That avoids "fratricide" of competition among students from the same narrow region of the country--and I also think it is better education for the student to go away and learn a new pattern of regional culture and develop independence from mom and dad.</p>

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<p>Not really, Tokenadult, and not necessarily. I know there may be specific programs for certain specific areas such as good neighbor programs, but for the MOST part, the elites like a diverse group, in my opinion, anyways. I have a friend who is in admissions and his job is to look for kids in the inner city where is elite LAC is located. An emphasis is on disadvantaged kids, though it seems that his catch tends to still be more well to do kids who happen to live in that area. But he does canvas city schools that are largely if not completely ignored by most colleges. He is always looking for that rare jewel in his city that can be helped by his college. It is a natural thing to do. Would be embarrassing that such a student has to go to a national program to be discovered with a top notch school within a short bus ride away in his home city who ignores him.</p>

<p>A local Catholic school here is very generous to kids who are nearby, but then more than half of their students are local. They turned down some kids from out of state and do not give nearly the aid to such kids if accepted. Yield is very important to them. If a local highschool says the kids will likely go there and gives some other info to substantiate those odds (like he only applied to 3 schools, all local), he will get a quick accept and some money to boot if he is above average in stats. Many times these colleges know the highschool counselors personally, not just during admissions discussions; they could be related, neighbors, old friends because of proximity. It makes llife easier to accept a more sure thing instead of having to redistribute these awards when given to someone far less certain. I mean why would someone from Chicago want to go to Lasalle College, for instance, unless he has some danged good reason to want to be in Philly or at that school? Especially if he is applying mainly to closer Chicago colleges for the most part. A school like Havorford, or Penn has a history of accepting Chicago students but a small Catholic college just does not get the yield from out of state applicants without some compelling reason.</p>

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<p>I do agree that coming from Idaho could help (I hope it is obvious that this is the state I am from) because a girl from my own high school was accepted to MIT, Princeton, and Yale with pretty much full rides at each school. Notwithstanding, she was an awsome student, but I do think that Idaho's underrepresented status somewhat helpled. I just wanted to see others' opinions on the matter, and if there IS evidence supporting this theory of mine.
P.S
Is there any data showing the goegraphic distribution of Ivy League undergraduates (specifically Columbia, where I am applying)?</p>

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<p>Most colleges show the regional distribution of their enrolled students in the most basic brochure that they show to prospective students. Most may also have a webpage showing the exact count of students from each state, and that information (with some big gaps in the data, sometimes) is gathered by the federal Department of Education and searchable on its website. (But I saw the U of Minnesota missing from the list of colleges with Minnesota students enrolled, and Harvard missing too, which is why I say the federal data appears to have gaps.)</p>

265

<p>Thanks, it's just that I have searched everywhere (except the Department of Education) for Columbia's geographic distribution, but could not find ANYTHING about it.
P.S
Isn't it sad when the Idaho Board of Education website leads to a generic search engine?</p>

266

<p>Actually I managed to find this for Yale and they had it broken down by State for every year over the course of a decade or so. I compared New York and New Jersey with Utah and found that in fact even when corrected for the population difference, there are far more New Jersey and New York students who enroll at Yale as a percentage of the population. Some years there were as few as 1 or 2 students from the whole state of Utah. Idaho was not too different. </p>

<p>But what we do not know is:</p>

<p>a) How many applied to from Utah, NY and NJ.
b) How many accepted applicants from Utah, NY and NJ actually enrolled.</p>

267

<p>Interesting. Here in Minnesota, there are something like a dozen a year who enroll at Harvard, and I hear of MIT enrollees who also received acceptances from Harvard. Applications number in the low hundreds for most of those colleges. Carnegie Mellon startled me this year by saying in a regional information session here that "hundreds" of students from Minnesota apply to CMU every year, but after friends helped me work through the math, taking into account CMU's yield, I am sure that is true. </p>

<p>One way to check some of these figures is to look at the state reports for each state for the SAT and ACT, because near the end of each state report document will be numbers of test reports sent in to various colleges, for one page of the most frequently applied-to colleges. </p>

<p><a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/about/news_info/cbsenior/yr2007/UT_07.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/about/news_info/cbsenior/yr2007/UT_07.pdf&lt;/a> </p>

<p><a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/about/news_info/cbsenior/yr2007/ID_07.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.collegeboard.com/prod_downloads/about/news_info/cbsenior/yr2007/ID_07.pdf&lt;/a> </p>

<p><a href="http://www.act.org/news/data/07/pdf/states/Utah.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.act.org/news/data/07/pdf/states/Utah.pdf&lt;/a> </p>

<p><a href="http://www.act.org/news/data/07/pdf/states/Idaho.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.act.org/news/data/07/pdf/states/Idaho.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

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<p>That was EVERYTHING I was looking for. Less than 40 people sent SAT scores to Columbia from Idaho. Thank you so much token!</p>

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<p>That is just brilliant, token! Thank you so much.</p>

270

<p>238 students got a 2400
another 247 got a 2390</p>

<p>less than 500 ..you have to assume they will all have great chances to get into one ivy.</p>

<p>my son got a 2390 on his SAT's :)</p>

271

<p>Captain of the House,</p>

<p>Firstly, I don't understand your logic here and it does not accord with the thrust of much of this thread. </p>

<p>You wrote: "The problem is that even a 99% chance means that a decent number will not get into schools of their choice. Not a tragedy, but I can tell you that in my particular situation a 90-99% chance strikes fear in the heart of a parent when that is the chance of being alive in so many years--a statistic over which many felt I should be overjoyed when there were (and are) so many with lesser chances. Clearly, to compare that with college acceptance is using a sledgehammer to chase a gnat, however, I just want to point out that a 99% rate when there are 6000-7000 individuals in the pool means that 60-70 of those fully accepting to be in that wonderful 99% are not."</p>

<p>Secondly, I disgree that the process of college admission needs to be filled with the "fear in the heart" and "panic" that you and others describe. As many of us have tried to articulate, there are many excellent options available for a range of top students. With the proper knowledge and appropriately calibrated expectations, no one should be disappointed. Too often, I sense a kind of mass hysteria (with its own self-referential harmonics) on CC and also in talking with my friends and their parents. We are sometimes overly invested in our anxiety, our "feelings" and in our sense of ourselves as "victims" that we don't take appropriate responsibility for ourselves. </p>

<p>Thirdly, your point as to the value of some of the schools I mentioned relative to in-state public alternatives, and your larger point as to the ever-increasing cost of a college education and the decreasing options for financial assistance for the middle-class is an excellent one. Clearly, we have less degrees of freedom here. That said, there still are several ways to skin this wily cat. Let me offer a few:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>If you live in a state with a very good public university that has a solid Honors program, go for it. A decently talented and motivated kid can come away with an excellent education, possibly even a PBK key and be competitive, if he or she chooses, for admission to an elite graduate program. This is the "keep your powder dry" strategy.</p></li>
<li><p>Consider applying for an ROTC scholarship. Many, if not all, branches of the services have these. They are open to both guys and gals. As a concrete example, see the Air Force ROTC Scholarship program at Trinity University.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>[url=<a href="http://www.trinity.edu/departments/financial_aid/mz/s-search.shtml%5DSCHOLARSHIPS%5B/url"&gt;http://www.trinity.edu/departments/financial_aid/mz/s-search.shtml]SCHOLARSHIPS[/url&lt;/a&gt;]&lt;/p>

<p>This is just one of many programs of its kind. Yes, it involves sacrifice and commitment, etc. This is the "if there is a will, there is a way"' strategy. </p>

<ol>
<li><p>Go out-of-state to a good Honors Programs. Many are not exhorbitantly expensive for OOSs. A quick search finds the University of Montana and The College of New Jersey at about $22K a per year each. Yes, it's real money, but I think there is also real value. In these cases, both are beautiful schools in two very different parts of the country offering excellent programs. This the "piggy-back on the largess of other states" strategy.</p></li>
<li><p>Stagger the college experience and work intermittently thoroughout or "college on the six-year plan" or the "pay as you go" strategy. It has the benefits of one's gaining valuable work experience during school and of generating some coin.</p></li>
<li><p>Begin at a Community College for the first year or two, then transfer to the school you really want to go to. This is the "big trees from little acorns grow" strategy.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>Your point btw about small colleges and the need to visit and show face is overdrawn. There are many ways to both get to know a college and to communicate interest (e.g e-mail, POT, letters, etc.) other than visiting in person. There is a lot to be said for learning how to develop and maintain relationships in this more old-fashioned way.</p>

<p>The point again is this we don't lack options, we lack imagination and will. And the imagination and will needs to come, primarily, from us students. You can't easily push a rope.</p>

<p>Less whinging and more rational action is called for.</p>

<p>What am I missing? What is your strategy?</p>

272

<p>This year a Yale student who was matriculating there stated he wasn't worried about getting accepted to Yale after he applied because he was from a state that had only a few students apply to Yale each year. He stated the school was calling him constantly before admissions results came out to assure him he would probably be in and to make sure he didn't go anywhere else. Sounds like pretty good odds to me if you are from a state that doesn't send many students to Yale. Most high scoring students don't get this kind of treatment.</p>

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<p>There are uncanny results, however. Last year, top kid in our school, State Math Champion, 4th in the US in Math, A student, Cross-Country star and other great ECS, was waitlisted at Harvard and then deferred a year for enrollment. He went elsewhere and had a perfect SAT score. How do you explain that. This kid wasn't a moron, he was a nice, unpretentious kid.</p>

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<p>We have a great college prep school with great academics and about 8-10 National Merit Finalists every year. Yet, last year, Harvard, Yale and Dartmouth all admitted athletes and no "scholars" that applied. Hard to explain. Only Cornell and Penn took the academic kids.</p>

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<p>
[quote]
4th in the US in Math

[/quote]
</p>

<p>What does that mean? Who publishes these rankings?</p>

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<p>I think we can all agree that Ivy Admissions is more based around what YOU did with the opportunities around YOU, and if correlates with a strong will to learn than just attaining an arbitrary score on a test.</p>

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<p>Sorry, I believe it was based on a series of math competitions. Obviously not for all of the students in the US.</p>

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<p>As it should be....it's just hard to tell if you are conveying that will to learn in your essays.....and like everyone else the Ivies are looking for that something extra.....something different...I have the stats and the ECs and the APs and the grades and am National Merit Semi-Finalist to boot (missed one question) but I am not a minority or a person with a particularly strong hook. Even though I would love to go to Y or H, I applied early elsewhere. Why be waitlisted or deferred because you apply early to H or Y, when you can be sure you get into another very good school early and just wait and see what happens with the Ivies at regular decision time. I think more and more people are feeling this way...it's disappointing to be able to feel you can't apply to your first choice school, because it seems the only "smart" thing to do. It is a little bit off-putting also to a student like me when the Ivies tell you they can fill their classes 8 times over with students like myself. I worked hard to get where I am.</p>

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<p>
[quote]

Agreed. I should clarify my statement.</p>

<p>Your chances at any one school is random.
If you say to yourself, "I want to get into ... Columbia". Your chances, unless truly amazing stuff, is more or less wishy washy ~we'll use 30% (RD acceptance rate at the College last year was 5%).</p>

<p>Okay but my original point was assume 30% at all 8 Ivy league schools (for the person that applies to 8)</p>

<p>The chance of rejection of any one independently is 1-0.3 = 0.7 => 70% right?</p>

<p>The chance of being rejected from EVERY SINGLE IVY with those stats are, mathematically, 0.7^8 = 5.76%</p>

<p>So statistically, assuming you have an equal, independent 30% chance of admissions based on those SAT and GPA's (which is supported by the data i cited earlier), if you apply to all 8 Ivies, you have a 100% - 5.76% = 94.3% of admissions into 1 of them.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>You say 'statistically' like this has actual mathematical merit.</p>

<p>Suppose you have eight drawers full of socks. (30% green, 70% red, it's Christmas time, right?) You pull one sock from each drawer. The chances of pulling a red sock, from any one independently, is 1-0.3 = 0.7 => 70%, right?</p>

<p>The chance of pulling red socks from EVERY SINGLE DRAWER are, mathematically, 0.7^8 = 5.76%.</p>

<p>So statistically, you have a 94.3% chance of pulling out a green sock somewhere there.</p>

<p>
[quote]

assuming you have an equal, independent 30% chance of admissions based on those SAT and GPA's (which is supported by the data i cited earlier)

[/quote]
</p>

<p>It may be that the data supports this, but I would contend that common sense dictates that college admissions is a bit different from pulling socks from drawers. To model them as statistically equivalent circumstances is rather pointless.</p>

<p>(edit) Well, I didn't realize that post was 18 pages ago.</p>

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<p>I totally agree with the above post.</p>

<p>The statistics used operate under the invalid assumption that college decisions are independent of one another. </p>

<p>However, realistically, that's not true. If a student gets rejected from one Ivy, it is very likely that the student will be rejected from the other Ivies as well, perhaps for the same reason. </p>

<p>On the other hand, students accepted at one Ivy are very likely to be students accepted at multiple Ivies. </p>

<p>No matter how hard we try, this kind of stuff just can't be quantified.</p>