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I believe truazn said in another thread that 99% of people with those grades and scores would get into HYP.
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<p>That is what the thread title promised as to HYPM, and of course that is not true at all. The statistical reasoning error in that thread was apparent to everyone who has had a good statistics course, and of course the key issue is that a lower-tier Ivy may not be the target college for someone applying to Harvard or MIT. All eight of the Ivy League colleges are fine colleges, and their aggregate freshman class sizes are such that most of the higher-scoring, high-GPA students who apply to them will be admitted SOMEWHERE, but Ivy League admission is difficult precisely because it isn't a walk in the park to both score high on a college entrance test and maintain a high GPA at a challenging high school. The quality of the high school matters--plenty of high school valedictorians are rejected across the board at all eight Ivy League colleges because they went to wimpy high schools and took easy courses.</p>
<p>I understood his post and his message. I overlooked the minor inconsistencies in his quest to calm some student's fear. No nitpicking here.
I also agree with someone who said a lot of students who are not qualify but apply anyway. I just observed one of my D 's best friend and was completely shocked. She applied to Caltech/Columbia/Cornell/Pomona and she had a minute chance. The only thing she has, at least where I could tell, is her SAT, it's in the 2100+. Her couse work, ECs and everything else is lacking. I mean her counselor told her at the end of 10th grade that she would be attending 2-year community college by looking at her transcipt.</p>
<p>Admission to the Ivy's, the top LACS, the top engineering schools and the U.S. Service Academies hovers around the 10-15% mark.</p>
<p>In my opinion, someone with the stats the original poster displayed for us has an above average shot at gaining admission into one of these schools. If average is 10-15%, you would have to think that someone with those stats and nothing more or less to help their record would have around a 20-25% chance of getting accepted.</p>
<p>Let's think about these percentages for a minute while comparing these profiles to the incoming class profile. The person with 2300+ and all the other high scores fits in nicely with the rest of the class score wise. Very nicely in fact. Their reasons for being rejected with those scores would be a lack of activities/ other deficiency in high school record.</p>
<p>Conversely, you would have to think someone above 2100 and involved in athletics or compelling extracurriculars is probably what is filling up most of the classes at these schools.</p>
<p>Also, those final admittance numbers can be a bit tricky. Harvard will give you their annual " 9% applicants accepted rate" when you look them up on collegeboard. How many of those kids followed through with applications after inquiring about the college. For Harvard, you could probably eliminate 50% of the applications immediately for various reasons because people just apply for the name. Most of the people who don't fit into the class profile are going to get rejected, and most people who do stand a decent shot to get in. </p>
<p>The "subjective" aspect is so hard to figure out with these places.</p>
<p>I went to a poorly performing school in RI, 2180 SAT, All State XC and track and still got into Dartmouth, Princeton, and USNA.</p>
<p>You just never know until you try. That's why so many people try.</p>
<p>First of all, let me say that this thread is by far the most interesting one that I've read thus far on CC. Kudos Truazn :)</p>
<p>In the original posts, you talked about a spike in acceptance rates from 5-6% (RD) to about 30% with an SAT score of 2350+ and GPA 3.9+. I was wondering where you got this information from. I'm not trying to discredit it, just interested in seeing the statistics.</p>
<p>I'm still 1.5 years away from taking the SAT, so I don't know if I'll qualify for the 2350+ club, but regardless, this puts a lot of anxieties to rest. My school aspiration is Columbia, and in fact no school I've seen even comes close in terms of their personal appeal to me. Although according to this information, the chances for getting into any one Ivy is about 30% with those stats, the chances for ANYONE under ED (for Columbia) is 22%. My point is, I'm happy now, because if RD rate (which scared the crap out of me upon its discovery as being 6%) will rise to 30%, then the ED rates are bound to rise to. . . . (input smarter person's answer here). </p>
<p>For me, doing well on the SAT will be MUCH easier than finding the cure for cancer :D -- Especially since my school has almost no extracurricular clubs or opportunities. And assuming I have a correct understanding of GPA's in relation to number grades (94 = 3.9, 95 = 4.0, 96 = 4.1, 97 = 4.2 . . . 105 = 5.0?), they will be easier than the cure for cancer as well.</p>
<p>GoNavyXC, you give me hope! I'll be applying with a 2180 to Princeton haha. I'm hoping my extracurriculars, essays, and recs will help me out. Of course, the easiest way to "get in" is to score high on the SAT, as people have already mentioned. No doubt that scoring a 2300+ will almost guarantee you admission into one of the Ivy schools, but if you're targeting a specific university, it may not be that easy. But, for most people on CC, Ivy = prestige, and wherever you go, you will find that.</p>
<p>for the record I said that "The chances of BEING REJECTED BY NINE SCHOOLS with those stats are roughly ~1%". THat means the chances of acceptance to ONE Ivy is roughly 99% WITH those stats. The thread title is a misnomer- i apologize. </p>
<p>It should be "With aforementioned stats, chances of acceptance into Ivy League is 99%"</p>
<p>There's a difference between a high chance of getting into any one particular Ivy versus the chances of being rejected by EVERY single Ivy.</p>
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But, for most people on CC, Ivy = prestige, and wherever you go, you will find that.
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<p>I've found that to be true as well, that people's number one criterion for a college is its prestige, and it's unfortunate. That's one of the reasons why I want to attend Columbia rather than HYPS. My feeling is that with Columbia, there is a lot less consciousness about prestige and more about academics and community. I'm sure there is still a lot of consciousness about prestige, but I think it's a lot less than HYPS.</p>
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It should be "With aforementioned stats, chances of acceptance into Ivy League is 99%"
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<p>Alas, that statement is still flat wrong, for the reasons mentioned in that thread. No statistician would endorse the "proof" that led to that conclusion.</p>
<p>Also, consider how many people would apply to all 8 Ivy's if they had those stats?</p>
<p>Most would apply to about 2 or 3 and figure that if they didn't get into any of them, then applying was useless. Why would the person apply to all 8 in the first place? Hopefully not for prestige. I only applied to 2 hoping to get into them, but if I didn't I had to have a few backups. Who would spend the $75 per application fee for all those schools plus safeties? No one is going to apply to all of them.</p>
<p>Who is to say their chances would go up if they applied to all of them? You can never know what goes on inside those board rooms where they decide which applications to throw away and why. You might just get lucky that the admissions officer came across your application when she was at a red light and thought it was one that he/she could not refuse.</p>
<p>Conversely, what if your application was of an average applicant to the Ivy and the admission officer was reading it at a red light and he/she spilled her coffee on it? </p>
<p>Best thing is to turn your applications in and not worry about what goes on afterwards because it's out of your control.</p>
<p>Gonavy, my son did. All 8. Yes, prestige was important to him and me, at the end of the day the Ivies have a signaling effect or serve as a filter or stamp of approval and we played the odds, at $75 an app, figuring that some adcoms would spill coffee at the wrong time, some would read the app in a better mood, he got into all except HYP. So, I say play them all.</p>
<p>People who want that prestige above all else (a suitable school, the education that fits your specific needs) will undoubtedly apply to all 8 Ivies, and perhaps Stanford as well. However, I agree with GoNavy, that most people will just apply to their 2 or 3 favorites.</p>
<p>Looking at previous applications on this forum, it's basically a craps shoot whether or not you get into any one specific Ivy. I've seen people who've gotten into Harvard, Cornell, and Columbia, but not Yale, Princeton, or Penn; people who've gotten into all Ivies except Columbia; people whose acceptances seem to leap frog down US News' Top 10 List. </p>
<p>That being said, those who want prestige will apply to all 8, ensuring (with the aforementioned stats) their acceptance into one. Those who want a suitable school for themself will apply to their however many schools that they personally want to attend. Although YPS's prestige might make me an extra 5 grand per year (compared to a Columbia degree), I really don't like rural environments (or New Haven) and for that reason alone, I will not apply to them.</p>
<p>It's not prestige alone.There is a point of view that says one must go to school with those whose smarts (one measure is SAT) are slightly above yours. So, like you improve your tennis or chess playing higher ranked players one theory of fit would say go to school with those whose SAT scores are above yours.</p>
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apply to all 8, ensuring (with the aforementioned stats) their acceptance into one
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<p>I'll STILL disagree with "ensuring" here. Someone with strong stats has a good chance of being admitted to a lower-tier Ivy, because many of the students with stronger stats will be snatched up by the upper-tier Ivies and their national peers (e.g., MIT and Caltech and Stanford). But there is no "ensure" value to applying to all eight Ivies, although certainly an applicant with top-quartile stats for a bottom-tier Ivy has a decent chance of getting in. It is STILL possible to be denied admission by any combination of colleges, no matter how many colleges one applies to. This is the fourth admission season I have been on CC. In the first and second seasons, there were some notorious examples of students being blanked by all the colleges to which they applied, or by all the colleges other than State U to which they applied. The first task of any college applicant is to line up an absolutely, positively sure-bet "safety" college. Then it is fine to load up the remainder of the application list with "reach" colleges on the basis of any criterion meaningful to that applicant. The single best odds-maximizing thing to do is to apply rather than to not apply, but not all applicants will be admitted to even one college on an application list filled solely with reaches.</p>
<p>Can't use stats for a "human select process"?</p>
<p>insurance companies calculate the probability of you dying based on your weight, height, and a variety of other factors. They calculate the probability they will get into an accident based on the color of your car (red cars have higher insurance). They base your insurance policy price on your grades. If statistics and probability can be used to predict when you die or how likely you as an individual are likely to get into an accident, I'd say it's no less faulty to use them to assess your chances of gaining admittance to an Ivy league institution. </p>
<p>Anyway, but the point of this entire thread is to say... "CALM DOWN".</p>
<p>I fully understand that college admissions is unpredictable and regardless of how great your grades, test scores, and extracurriculars are, you may still be rejected to all of the Ivy Leagues. However, statistically speaking, truazn is correct. As he said, if you assume that the chances of getting accepted to any one Ivy - no matter which one it may be - is 40% for a student with truazn's stated qualifications and this student applies to all 8 Ivies - if they all admit students using the exact same method - then this student will have a 98% of being accepted into at least one.</p>
<p>Please don't attack me for my above post. I do not agree with truazn in that Ivies are easy to get into if your grades, test scores, and ECs are up to the standards that he selected. I also understand that colleges do not merely look at these aspects of an applicant. They look for a unique student and above all, someone who will succeed at their school. And the student with the best stats may not always be what they're looking for. That said, I sent my above post because I simply wanted to support truazn's statistical analysis, no matter how simple it is and how many false assumptions it makes.</p>
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As he said, if you assume that the chances of getting accepted to any one Ivy - no matter which one it may be - is 40% for a student with truazn's stated qualifications and this student applies to all 8 Ivies - if they all admit students using the exact same method - then this student will have a 98% of being accepted into at least one.
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<p>I urge everyone reading this thread to take statements like that to an experienced teacher of statistics and ask if the teacher agrees. I am very confident that the teacher will identify this conclusion from those premises as an example of mistaken reasoning about statistics.</p>
<p>You can't add up %'s, and draw the conclusion that 10% chances at 10 colleges= 100%[ or whatever] chance of acceptance somewhere. Do some research on CC past threads on Andison, an absolutely top student who got rejected at every school, all IVY's, that he applied to. Students can't make the assumption that their stats alone will get them accepted. You have to show each individual college what you add to the class the admission officers are trying to assemble.</p>