My chances for these schools?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

I had a question on my chances for a few colleges. School details: 2000+, public, semi-competitive, in Texas.
I plan to major in pre-med or biology because I want to later specialize in neurosurgery (I have had my heart set on this since 4th grade and don’t plan to change)

My freshman year classes and final grades:
-AP Human Geography 89
-Honors Algebra I 86
-Honors English I 90
-Honors Biology 91
-Honors Spanish II 92
-Broadcast 98
-Band (double blocked) 98

My freshman year went pretty well. I was number 65/348 with (I’m not sure but I think) a 3.79 or 3.81 out of a 4.0 GPA.

However, my sophomore year went downhill (I became clinically depressed and actually went to a mental hospital for a week). These are my classes:

-AP World History 85
-AP Biology 83
-AP Spanish IV (I took Spanish III over the summer to be ahead… final average was an 84) 85
-Honors English II 85
-Honors Geometry 75 (second semester only… I took first semester online but I failed so I have to do it this summer)
-Honors Algebra II 84
-Honors Chemistry 85
-Band 95

I moved schools my junior year to a 4000+ and it is known to be one of the most competitive high schools. These are my mid-semester grades, and they probably won’t fluctuate that much.

-AP English Language (year class, no grade)
-AP U.S. History (year class, no grade)
-AP Physics 1 74 (I switched to Honors physics in the middle of the semester)
-AP Chemistry 80
-Anatomy/physiology (no grade, next semester)
-Honors Pre Calculus (no grade, next semester)
-Money matters 97
-Geometry (I failed first semester online so i had to redo it and got a 71)

So far I am 281/900 and my GPA is a 3.3947/4.0 (4.259 weighted)

Regarding my SAT and ACT, I got a 1230/1600 on my SAT and a 22/36 on my ACT – I am retaking both this march

I took all my AP tests and the only ones I got credit in were AP Human Geography and AP World History

For my senior year, these were the classes I am planning on taking:

-AP Environmental Science
-Ap Calc. A.B
-AP Calc B.C
-AP English IV
-AP Gov.
-AP Psychology

I’m also semi-fluent in Spanish, fluent in English (of course), and fluent in Persian.
I play 7 instruments fluently (Clarinet, Guitar, Piano, Violin, Flute, Ukulele, Saxophone). I am continuing to learn more
I have participated in school organizations like Persian Culture Club (I was officer), Student Council, and band. I plan to do some community service over the summer.

I genuinely love to learn, and AP classes allow me to do that. I don’t want anyone thinking that I am taking these to impress anyone. I actually like the workload and even though my grades aren’t the best, I worked hard and tried my best and learned a ton.

Finally, these are my dream and target colleges. I don’t know what I want to choose for safety, so if anyone has any recommendations, feel free to leave them below (Has to be in California or New York):
-University of California, Riverside
-University of Southern California
-University of California, San Diego
-University of California, Los Angeles
-Any Cal State Uni
-Stanford (just for the hell of it, I know I won’t get it lol)

2

Why Calc AB and BC at the same time? U’ll be done with AB once BC gets into 2nd semester.

3

Also, it’s ok to drop down a level for your well-being. I dropped down to Econ from AP Micro for my own sake. I understand that you want to learn (which I think is noble), but see if your senior load is good for you. I have a similar course load, and it is very damaging.

4

Public schools in California, and that includes the UC‘s and the CSU’s, prioritize in-state residents, because they were made for in-state taxpaying residents, so they put a cap on out-of-state residents.

Your scores and GPA have to be better than the in-state residents in order to get looked at twice.
Right now, your SAT and ACT are not competitive for the UCs, especially since you hope to be one of hundreds of thousands of students that hope to major in bio and the impacted sciences in the California schools. You would need to apply to the list of non-impacted CSUs that may be in farming communities-like Bakersfield, Stanislaus, etc. There are 23 CSUs. They are not all in popular places, so you need to narrow down what you’re looking for for CSUs.

You will receive no funding, financial aid, nothing from any of the public schools in California. Your parents would have to pay an enormous amount of money for public state schools in California.
So your fees would be over $60 K per year at the UC‘s and $40 K per year at the California state schools.