National Merit College Stats -- 2018

My wife and I were on full-ride NMF scholarships 25ish years ago, and we have a kid who seems likely to be a NMF in a couple years. Because of that, I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet of the colleges NMFs attend and updating it annually when the NMF annual report comes out.

Since the '17-'18 report was just released (or at least I just saw it), I’ll share some numbers from it that you might find interesting:

Top 20 NMF schools for '18 – total NMFs in ( ), '17 ranking in [ ]

  1. USC (276) [3]
  2. Chicago (249) [2]
  3. Florida (231) [6]
  4. Harvard (195) [4]
  5. Alabama (185) [17]
  6. Vanderbilt (182) [4]
  7. Texas A&M (178) [14]
  8. UT-Dallas (175) [9]
  9. Northwestern (172) [7]
  10. Stanford (157) [8]
  11. Oklahoma (156) [1]
  12. Arizona State (151) [18]
  13. MIT (147) [11]
  14. Minnesota (137) [10]
  15. Purdue (133) [15]
  16. UC-Berkeley (124) [16]
  17. Yale (124) [11]
  18. Northeastern (118) [13]
  19. Penn (111) [20]
  20. Duke (106) [22]

The only college in the top 20 in ‘17 that wasn’t this year is Princeton, which was #19 in ‘17 and #23 in ‘18.

Biggest absolute increase, ‘17 to ‘18:

  1. Alabama, +51 (134 to 185)
  2. Georgia Tech, +49 (65 to 105)
  3. BYU, +32 (63 to 95)
  4. Emory, +30 (47 to 77)
  5. Texas A&M, +30 (148 to 178)
  6. Florida, +29 (202 to 231)
  7. Dartmouth, +26 (41 to 67)
  8. Arizona State, +25 (126 to 151)
  9. Maryland, +22 (66 to 88)
  10. Notre Dame, +21 (48 to 69)

Biggest absolute decrease, ‘17 to ‘18:

  1. Oklahoma, -161 (317 to 156)
  2. Vanderbilt, -37 (219 to 182)
  3. Kentucky, -37 (103 to 66)
  4. Northeastern, -35 (153 to 118)
  5. Princeton, -33 (123 to 90)
  6. Yale, -32 (156 to 124)
  7. Brown, -29 (87 to 58)
  8. Northwestern, -28 (200 to 172)
  9. Harvard, -24 (219 to 195)
  10. Minnesota, -22 (159 to 137)

Biggest relative increase (≥20 in ‘17):

  1. Emory, 64% (47 to 77)
  2. Dartmouth, 63% (41 to 67)
  3. Georgia Tech, 62% (65 to 105)
  4. RPI, 52% (21 to 32)
  5. BYU, 51% (63 to 95)

Biggest relative decrease (≥20 in ‘17):

  1. Georgia Washington, -76% (21 to 5)
  2. Oklahoma, -51% (317 to 156)
  3. Kansas, -43% (35 to 20)
  4. Idaho, -36% (22 to 14)
  5. RIT, -36% (22 to 14)
  6. Kentucky, -36% (103 to 66)

I wonder what explains Emory’s increase? Any additional NMF incentives there recently? Oklahoma decrease is not surprising.

What is bazaar is UChicago has really scaled back their automatic money for NMF in 2018. My son, only got the NMS from the college board (1x$2,500). I suspect you will see this number drop. If it doesn’t, it speaks strong for their brand that NMF will still pick UChicago over other schools that offer a much more attractive package.

Also, do you know if that is number in undergraduate population or just the Freshman class?

The numbers are the freshman class for that year.

Some comparisons with five years ago:

Biggest absolute increase, ‘13 to ‘18:

  1. Florida, 208 (23 to 231)
  2. Purdue, 113 (20 to 133)
  3. UT-Dallas, 80 (95 to 175)
  4. UCLA, 59 (18 to 77)
  5. Alabama, 54 (131 to 185)
  6. Cincinnati, 47 (30 to 77)
  7. Arizona State, 31 (120 to 151)
  8. North Texas, 28 (4 to 32)
  9. Boston University, 26 (34 to 60)
    10 Maryland, 26 (62 to 88)

Biggest absolute decrease, ‘13 to ‘18:

  1. WashU, -178 (223 to 45)
  2. Harvard, -126 (321 to 195)
  3. Vanderbilt, -103 (285 to 182)
  4. Princeton, -102 (192 to 90)
  5. Yale, -100 (224 to 124)
  6. Northwestern, -87 (259 to 172)
  7. Chicago, -84 (333 to 249)
  8. Georgia Tech, -71 (176 to 105)
  9. MIT, -65 (212 to 147)
  10. UIUC, -64 (88 to 24)

Biggest relative increase (≥25 in ‘18):

  1. Florida, 904% (23 to 231)
  2. North Texas, 700% (4 to 32)
  3. Purdue, 565% (20 to 133)
  4. UCLA, 328% (18 to 77)
  5. Cincinnati, 157% (30 to 77)
  6. Missouri, 142% (12 to 29)
  7. UT-Dallas, 84% (95 to 175)
  8. Boston University, 76% (34 to 60)
  9. Rutgers, 67% (24 to 40)
  10. Johns Hopkins, 48% (33 to 49)

Biggest relative decrease (≥25 in ‘13):

  1. WashU, -80% (223 to 45)
  2. UIUC, -73% (88 to 24)
  3. St. Olaf, -69% (29 to 9)
  4. Miami (Fl.), -61% (62 to 24)
  5. Carleton, -56% (71 to 31)
  6. Miami (Ohio), -56% (27 to 12)
  7. Pomona, -54% (28 to 13)
  8. Princeton, -53% (192 to 90)
  9. Tulsa, -52% (50 to 24)
  10. Tennessee, -49% (41 to 21)

Another interesting stat is % of NMF in freshmen class, so I calculated a few.

2.5% Alabama
7.8% Yale
8.2% USC
9.2% Stanford
13.4% MIT
14.2% Duke
14.3% U of Chicago

It would be interesting to see UF continue its rise in the number of scholars as more families become familiar with the full cost of attendance scholarship that the state of Florida offers to its in state as well as out of state finalists. I would even venture to say that it would move up to #1 next year in number of scholars.

Very interesting info - especially this:

Biggest absolute decrease, ‘13 to ‘18:

  1. WashU, -178 (223 to 45)
  2. Harvard, -126 (321 to 195)
  3. Vanderbilt, -103 (285 to 182)
  4. Princeton, -102 (192 to 90)
  5. Yale, -100 (224 to 124)
  6. Northwestern, -87 (259 to 172)
  7. Chicago, -84 (333 to 249)
  8. Georgia Tech, -71 (176 to 105)
  9. MIT, -65 (212 to 147)
  10. UIUC, -64 (88 to 24)

I wonder if this is an indication that elite schools have de-emphasized the importance of standardized test scores over the past five years (assuming that that 11th grade PSAT scores approximate the eventual SAT scores submitted to colleges).

: Another interesting stat is % of NMF in freshmen class, so I calculated a few.

Can’t prove it without doing a bunch more work, but I’d be willing to bet Harvey Mudd has the highest, with 40 of 234 for 17.1%.

“I wonder if this is an indication that elite schools have de-emphasized the importance of standardized test scores over the past five years (assuming that that 11th grade PSAT scores approximate the eventual SAT scores submitted to colleges).”

I think that is part of it. Those schools are on a mission to increase diversity. I think it’s also a reflection of “donut hole” families that do not qualify for FA choosing to take NMF scholarships to schools like USC, UF, etc…over full pay schools.

: I wonder if this is an indication that elite schools have de-emphasized
: the importance of standardized test scores over the past five years
: (assuming that that 11th grade PSAT scores approximate the eventual
: SAT scores submitted to colleges).

As another data point, here’s the NMF drops from HYPMS over 15 years, 2003 to 2018:

Harvard, -230 (425 to 195)
Yale, -130 (254 to 124)
Stanford, -106 (263 to 157)
Princeton, -100 (190 to 90)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, -27 (174 to 147)

@mdpmdp If you do not mind telling, where did you and your wife get your full ride scholarships and how was the experience.

@TheBigChef
You think WashU and Vandy de-emphasized test scores?! lol. I just think NMS doesn’t mean much overall. When I see Alabama and Florida in the top 5, I take things with a grain of salt.

I blame the Internet!

Students/parents are getting well-informed and start to think about bottom dollars.

Highly employable majors/students know free tuition for undergraduate does matter. Pre-Med/Law/CS/Engineering etc.

Can someone update data point with climate (warmer vs cold). preferred colleges below mason-dixon line?

: If you do not mind telling, where did you and your wife get your
: full ride scholarships and how was the experience.

Southeast Missouri State, during the four-year period in the '90s when they were aggressively courting NMFs. There were a lot fewer options back then for full rides – U. of Houston offered me one, Bradley gave them out (I heard), some other regional schools.

Despite graduating from a directional school, my wife got accepted into every grad school she applied to (including Berkeley) and has had a very successful career. (And I freelance – so no one cares what school I went to, just the quality of my work.) Like everything in life, college is what you make of it.

“You think WashU and Vandy de-emphasized test scores?! lol. I just think NMS doesn’t mean much overall. When I see Alabama and Florida in the top 5, I take things with a grain of salt.”

Bama and Florida give tons of money for NM - most elite schools give little or nothing. You can’t really compare the two categories. Also, I guess it can vary from school to school, but what’s your explanation for Harvard going from 425 to 195 in 15 years? Agree that NM carries little or no weight with admissions at most highly competitive schools.

@TheBigChef (U) Florida does not give money for NMF, The state of Florida does with the OOS Benacquisto.

: Bama and Florida give tons of money for NM - most elite schools give little or
: nothing. You can’t really compare the two categories.

Right. If you look at the top 20, they split pretty clearly into two categories: Elite schools that give little to nothing (Chicago, Harvard, Northwestern, MIT) and lower-tier schools that give lots (Florida, Alabama, A&M, Dallas). There are a few hybrids that fall in between in both reputation and money (USC, Northeastern), but for the most part, you take the money or you take the prestige.

  1. USC (276) [3]
  2. Chicago (249) [2]
  3. Florida (231) [6]
  4. Harvard (195) [4]
  5. Alabama (185) [17]
  6. Vanderbilt (182) [4]
  7. Texas A&M (178) [14]
  8. UT-Dallas (175) [9]
  9. Northwestern (172) [7]
  10. Stanford (157) [8]
  11. Oklahoma (156) [1]
  12. Arizona State (151) [18]
  13. MIT (147) [11]
  14. Minnesota (137) [10]
  15. Purdue (133) [15]
  16. UC-Berkeley (124) [16]
  17. Yale (124) [11]
  18. Northeastern (118) [13]
  19. Penn (111) [20]
  20. Duke (106) [22]

Seeing that UF only had 23 in 2013, got me thinking…

These counts are showing National Merit Scholars and not Finalist. UF likely had far more finalist in 2013, but since they didn’t receive a scholarship, they don’t show as Scholars. I know with both of my kids, we were fine turning down substantial merit awards at other schools to attend UF (which is still very affordable for in-state kids).

On the other hand, now that the state of Florida offers the scholarship to any NMF’s, the numbers jumped at UF.

This could also explain why we’re seeing a large drop at HYPMS. They may still be getting about the same number of NMF’s, but they are not receiving as many scholarships (and becoming Scholars)?

careful, none of these schools are lower tier. Just not all the tippy tops. But you can get a great education at each and every one of them.