<p>Ok so I know that there are a lot of people who are borderline for national merit cutoff in the class of 2015. I'm just dying to know whether the cutoff will increase or decrease. Waiting until September in 2014 is going to be a pain. Well I'd like to hear what you all have to say according to the trend of the cutoff. I personally scored a 209 (I know not that great) but I live in Michigan and the cutoff was 210 last year. The highest its ever been in my state is 211. The year before last year had a 207 cutoff but I believe that was the lowest. I've gotten varied remarks saying it'll for sure decrease or for sure increase. Do you guys believe that the cutoff is VERY LIKELY (this means a lot) to decrease by 1 or 2 points. </p>
<p>Will my 209 most likely make national merit? Maybe even a 208 in my state?</p>
<p>I'd like to hear all theories on the projected cutoffs.</p>
<p>We are all in for a long wait I’m afraid! My daughter has a 217 in PA. I have no reason to think that cutoffs will rise this year, based on trends over the past 10 years. Take a look at this chart. I realize that anything is possible, but the odds for this year’s borderline scorers look very good. We will have a better idea when the state summaries come out in February.
[PSAT-</a> National Merit Scholarships and Semifinalist State Cutoff Scores](<a href=“http://hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit]PSAT-”>http://hubpages.com/hub/National-Merit)</p>
<p>So far from what I’ve heard more people are leaning towards the decrease. Why do you think they’ll increase? I’m just praying for a 1 point decrease haha</p>
<p>A jump in scores is generally difficult to sustain. Look at the score histories, and you’ll see why this is generally expected to be a correction year - following mostly record highs, scores will almost certainly go down, as a whole. That doesn’t tell us anything, unfortunately, about individual state cutoffs, especially smaller population states, which can be more volitaile. </p>
<p>Focus on improving grades and SAT scores - that’s a combo that can yield equal or greater rewards than NMF. Good luck!</p>
<p>My sympathies to u. My kid was in same boat last year. He did not care but it drove me nuts. My best advice to u is don’t let it drive u nuts. September is a VERY long wait. Regarding ur underlying question, it is too close to call. U can’t second guess it. Trust me, i tried. practically, Bama, ou, and UCF offer great NM scholarships. There are some others too which are noted in another thread. Check out those schools and see if you want to to go to any of them. if not, focus on schools you want to go regardless of NM scholarships. Your PSAT score suggests your SAT will be around 2100. With that, you’ll get scholarships whether you make NM or not assuming u have decent grades. unlikely u will get a full ride if you don’t make NMF but full tuition is well within reach/ Figure out whether you would do better on SAT or ACT, study ur butt off, and pull the score up higher than the projected 2100 so you have more options. However, you will have lots of options with a 2100 so don’t sweat it too much if the studying does not pay off. My kid got 2 full tuition offers, an opportunity to competitively apply for a third full tuition option(and guaranteed partial tuition), and is in the scholarship pool for his 4th school. He got a 2130 on his SAT, close to your projected score. He has good grades too so keep them up(I am assuming urs are good), and have fun. my kid was like whatever on whether he made NM, has had a blast this last year, other than mom yapping at him to do more ;), and life turned out just fine not making NM. I hope u make it but he is living proof life is good regardless of which side of the border u land. Another kid who just missed has been accepted to Carnegie Mellon and MIT(their Sat may have been closer to 2200). So they are fine too.</p>
<p>Congratulations on a great PSAT score. Right now, you should start researching (through the sticky thread) the schools that in the past have offered good scholarships to NMFs. This does not mean that these schools will still offer that package if you make NMF, but there is a good chance that they will offer something next year. Then, pick a couple that you like and that seem to be a good fit for you, get on their mailing list, and wait.</p>
<p>Next, put that list on the side. Start to prepare for which schools interest you if you are not a NMSF. Why? Because even if you make NMSF, there is no guarantee that you will become a NMF. Yes, most do make it. However, you still need a back up plan for if you don’t. You really need to prepare for both situations. Do not put all of your eggs in one basket.</p>
<p>Visit some schools (a mix if possible) during your Junior year. This will help you figure out what is important to you and what feels right. There is no one perfect school. Whatever path you end up taking, you will have gained a lot of knowledge, and hopefully had some fun along the way.</p>
<p>When you find out whether or not you are a NMSF, you will be ready to hit the road running. There are some schools, like Alabama, which might end up on both lists. They offer great packages to NMFs as well as people with good stats. Other schools may only be on one of your lists. You can start to fill out applications during the summer before Senior year. No one says that you need to submit and pay. It may take a little time that is “wasted,” but will save some time during those couple of months at the beginning of Senior year when a lot is going on.</p>
<p>Good luck to all of you. Enjoy this time. Some of our best family time was spent in the car looking at schools and places we would have never been to if it were not for this process.</p>