<p>I've already created a few posts discussing the possible cutoff scores for various states for national merit, and now that the CB has released the 2008 state PSAT data, I thought I'd see if anyone could make a better guess at the cutoff score increase or decrease with that info. In NE, I got a 209 and the cutoff last year was 206. At first I thought I was safe, since a 4 point rise is relatively rare, but now I am having serious second thoughts. Lookin at the state data, the average PSAT score in my state rose by 1.5 points and around 700 less kids took it in my state this year. This seriously concerns me because I have looked at other states' data where the cutoff rose 4 points and alot of the time there was no notable increase in the average state PSAT score. Soo I guess I want to know... do I have reason to be worried about national merit with this info in mind, and do still have a decent shot at national merit? I know national merit is not really that big of a deal, but for me it is because many of the schools im looking at give "large" scholarships exclusively to national merit scholars.</p>
<p>NE participation has decreased so NE allocated semifinalist spots will also decrease. In addition it appears that the percentage of top scores (from which the semifinalists will come) has increased. So it would seem there will be more competition for fewer slots. I would say it is quite likely the cutoff will increase and possibly by more than +3 over last year. If I had to guess, however, I would say 209 will more likely make it than not. You will know for sure next September.</p>
<p>Thanks for the informed response! I agree that the cutoff is going to increase in Nebraska. Do the rest of you guys think that there is a decent chance it will go up more than 3 points?</p>
<p>Dear Rtgrove123 and Descartesz,
I may be wrong, but I don’t think it will hurt you that fewer NE students took the PSAT this year. The number of National Merit Semifinalists in a state is based, I believe, on the number of graduating seniors in the state, not on the number of PSAT takers. So, if fewer students take the PSAT, but the number of graduating seniors stays the same as the previous year, then a higher percentage of PSAT takers would have to qualify for National Merit Scholar. Good Luck.</p>
<p>I think this is the link where the state reports can be found. I’m a mom wondering if my son’s 215 will likely make it in Kansas for the class of of 2010. I’d so appriciatate any analysis you could make with this state info. like someone did for the recent poster from Ne.</p>
<p>Yeah, for the smaller states, the cutoff tends to be volatile. But do realize that cutoff changes of more than +2 are fairly rare (happened in 2 or 3 states last year). in the larger states such as CA, TX, and NY, the population is much larger, so dont expect the cutoffs to increase more than +2. for the smaller states, its still unlikely, but potentially possible that cutoffs may rise more than 2 points.</p>
<p>ffql, just eyeballing the KS data for the past three years it appears to be roughly stable among the top scores and only a tiny, probably insignificant decrease in test participation from the previous year. My best guess (which really is just a guess) would be no change.</p>
<p>If Barfly is right and allocation is done based on graduating seniors rather than test participation, then I would have to change my opinion on the prospects for NE, too, and say the cutoff score might very well decrease.</p>
<p>I found this on the NM site as part of the press release they send out in Sept. “The number of Semifinalists in a state is proportional to the
states percentage of the national total of graduating seniors.”</p>
<p>So, based on that fact, how should that impact the chance of Kansas going up much from a 211 last yr and a 212 the yr before?
Thanks,</p>
<p>Assuming that there has been no big dip in the number of KS graduates next year, it then stands to reason that slightly fewer KS PSAT-takers will receive the same allocation of NMSF spots. A cursory glance at the upper level test scores suggests there has not been a surge of high scores. Thus it seems likely the qualifying cutoff scores will not increase.</p>
<p>But one cannot know for sure without actually seeing combined score percentages, and the College Board does not share those with us. :)</p>
<p>Yes, I think that info is correct. I found it in the PSAT booklet: “…an allocation of Semifinalists is determined for each state, based on the state’s percentage of the national total of high school graduating seniors.” It goes on to say that if a state enrolls 2% of the nation’s graduating seniors, that state will have approximately 2% of the Semifinalists, or 320 of the 16,000 Semifinalists.</p>
<p>There is some interesting information also on the College Board website, especially if you are a statistics geek! If you go to collegeboard.com, then click on For Professionals, then choose K-12 Administrator, you can look at PSAT/NMSQT Downloads. The one entitiled Understanding the 2008 PSAT NMSQT Scores is interesting.</p>