What do you think the cutoff will be for National Merit selection for the class of 2017 who took the new PSAT in October, 2015?
Somewhere between 213 and 223… 
Thanks @thshadow . . . My daughter has an SI of 221 (38, 38, 34.5). It’s interesting that when I use the CB concordance tables that were released last month, her 221 converts to an SI of 225 for last year (i.e., 38 = 78, 38 = 79, and 34.5 = 68.) That’s over California’s cutoff last year of 223 . . . That said, there are a lot of high scores being reported and your higher range of 223 is a definite possibility!
If I had to guess, I’d probably say 219 or 220. But that’s not really based on much in the way of facts - because to be honest there isn’t much in the way of facts that’s even out there.
The most useful piece of data would be if we could get some anecdotes from high schools in CA, listing the # of students above various high SI thresholds, as well as the # of NMSF that the high school tends to have. I believe you contributed your data to the other thread. Now we need to get more!
(I tried to get info from my local high schools, but so far no luck.)
Thanks . . . I’ve been following the other thread for weeks and have really enjoyed your contributions to this discussion . . . I find myself looking forward to updates several times a day. What state are you in?
I’m CA too. My daughter is at 217. So probably on the outside looking in. But it explains why I’m pushing to justify lower cutoffs… 
I’m guessing somewhere in the 219-221 range just from anecdotes here and reading some of the reports (like the Compass report) linked to on the long thread. I’m not a statistician, however. DS doesn’t have anecdotes or data from his school; people don’t really share scores there.
Testmasters guys is in the process of updating their estimates of cutoff SI scores. IMO their estimates seem to be persuasive.
My daughter scores 214. If the cut off is higher than 214, that means she won’t qualify as NMSF? Would she still qualify as recommended student?
Yes.