A disproportionate number do come from private schools, but not majority by my count.
Even so, I could imagine reversing that trend some this year due to decreased study materials and practice test for privates and public schools having Khan Academy. Wasn’t that the one of the goals of the redesigned test after all?
I am just trying put forth reasons the projections for Florida may end up being artificially high.
My impression is purely based on anecdotes and I would say that Florida stays at 214. The few juniors who took the PSAT at my daughter’s large public high school didn’t fare too well. However, the school usually has between 3 and 5 NMSFs.
One thing that I want to point out is that our county introduced Common Core aligned English standards in my child’s 9th grade and it more than showed in her results. It will probably depend on how well each school district aligns to Common Core/FSA and how well the teacher delivers the content.
I would hope the projections are artificially high, but I’m afraid they are fairly accurate. The NHRP score increased significantly for this region, as well as the tremendous increase in the commended score. I think it would be hard to pin down any trend between the two different tests and attribute changes to a curriculum change for only a portion of the schools involved. The projected cutoff off of 215-217 is only 6-8 points above commended. In years past, FL’s cutoff is typically 10-12 points above commended. I know the top end is compressed, but the projection seems reasonable.
I just hope it doesn’t go higher!
I am in the camp who believes it will be between 215 and 217. I hope for the 215 but would not be surprised at all with 217. Super bummed, but not surprised. I don’t think there is any indication it would go higher than that.
A lot of interesting observations. The anecdotal evidence is the most interesting because there isn’t a lot to draw on statistically because this is the first year for the changes to the Psat nmsqt. I hear many speak of compression at the top. But for someone fairly new to this excercize, could someone please explain how that raises cutoff scores. I think I understand, but would appreciate someone clarifying it for me if you would.
okay forget that question.lol!
The main thing that concerns me is that it not be an outlandish increase, as was commendeds cutoff number, of 7-10 points. You have to admit that 209 was still a shocker in spite of general projections of 204-210.
@18yrcollegemin post stating that floridas cutoff is typically 10-12 points above commended was eye opening. If 10 that would put us at 219. That is always possible. This year anyway.
Someone finally explained the compressed scores at the top theory.Well,it makes sense even to my simple mind.Felt scores could be clumped at 216-218 range.Hope for a 214-215. Sounds good.
I think most scores will be odd numbers.
Be glad when we get enough scores reported on here for the mathmeticians among us to do some figuring.
Anyone think a 214 will get NMSF?
It’s possible.Most projections have in the 215-217 range however.Doesn’t mean those projections couldn’t be wrong.It was 214 last year, I believe, as well.
I do, but I am probably the only one.
Well,Art from compess prep came out with his adjustments of state cutoff scores. He raised floridas projection up one from 215 to 216. Sorry,my nook won’t let me copy and paste so you will have to google— “compass prep cutoff scores for commended”.It will come up and the state cutoffs are on that page. I’m no expert,this is my first year at this but there are a number of parents on here that have been through this a few times and some very good at doing the math involved in taking data known and making sense of it. I have this forboding feeling that florida could be as high as 217.
Of course,we could all be off as far as cutoffs.Could just as well be lower,but from just filtering I feel it will be more than it was last year.Hope not.
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
Compare Rhode Island and Florida historical scores, no justification for them having the same cut-off.
@CaucAsianDad yep. I can’t say I get it either. The only thing I can see is florida was two points higher than Rhode Island last year,but this year the range for florida is one point higher.So,go figire.I don’t see anything in that except Art said to pay more attention to the rages than the cutoff projection number. I dunno!
God, my typing.lol