Anyone out there with any ideas about how high florida may go in light of the knew info on 209 for commended?It was 214 last year.
I mean new info,of course.lol!I know compass prep gives a range of 215-217.Art at compass says no way does it get to 220.So,somewhere below that,but how far below is the question.
I have been speculating that Florida will be below the 215-217 that is being projected. The problems with the projections is the use of the CB Concordance tables to relate a 2014 PSAT score to a 2015 PSAT score. The 2014 score is being used as the best predictor of performance in 2015. All states are projected to have a 2015 cut-off that is equivalent to their 2014 cut-off, but this pattern rarely happens. Some states have been fairly consistent in the 214 range, but Florida hasn’t. Florida jumped up to a 214 from a 211 in 2013 - so is 214 the new standard for Florida or is it anomaly?
Consider the following actual cut-off scores:
Oregon…2013->217…2014->215
Florida…2013->211…2014->214
Testmasters projects both of these states to have a 215 cut-off based on one data point, their cut-off was in the 214-215 range last year. But what drives that data point? - the performance of the state’s test takers! What evidence is there that Florida test taker are now, for the first time, equal to Oregon test takers? I feel Florida probably moved in the other direction for 2015.
That makes total sense.Of course,for my purposes,that is the way I would like it to be.I asked Art at compassprep,before I had been educated by the many posters on here,including you,who have more knowledge than I in this arena,that 220 is way too high for florida.That was my question and the tone of his answer led me to believe that it could possibly be lower than the high end of his projection range which was 215-217.That is a large swerve for oregon,6 points higher to 1 point higher in one year.looking at oregon,do we follow the same trend this year that they did last and correct a couple points downward.If it were the old test I would say probably,but with this new one it has variables that leave you wondering.
My son is at 220 in florida and I feel that should be good enough,but just reading some of the uncertainty of the posts leaves me with a who knows feeling.Either way,just proud of his work ethic.To be truthful,I think I am way more excited for him than he is.lol!
New here, but I have been following the discussion for a while. I think that the 211 is more likely to be an anomaly given that Florida’s cutoff was 214 the year prior to the 211, then bounced back up to the 214. The (limited) anecdotal evidence I have seen from my child’s high school would point to the 215-216 range. I take some stock, however, in @DoyleB 's prediction of a 217 in Georgia based on his anecdotal evidence (which I suspect is better than mine). Georgia typically runs 3-4 points higher than Florida. And a 217 Georgia cutoff could indicate a Florida cutoff at around 214.
@snicks1234…please, please insert a space between your punctuation. Sorry, it’s been bugging me to read yours posts. 
@itsgettingreal I am so sorry. I am literally the worst one finger typist in America. my son gets on me for the same thing. Lol! Is this better?
@BlueBlazer I hope you are on the money. Again, since it’s a new test it’s harder to draw conclusions about this year. The changes definitely affected the way the scores are clustered at the top. Your having some actual score evidence from your childs school, however, does lend some weight to your post.
Seems like every projection I have seen puts florida at 215 with a 215-217 range.
Florida scores have shown a lot of variability.
Test year…Cut-Off…Commended…Highest Cut-Off
2008…211…201…221
2009…210…201…223
2010…214…202…223
2011…211…200…221
2012…214…203…224
2013…211…201…224
2014…214…202…225
I included Commended since it is a national average and can be used to approximate the variability of scores for the larger population. The Highest Cut-Off shows the score variability at the very top end.
This data set shows Florida has a higher variability that the nation as a whole and does not track top end scores very well. Therefore, while the Concordance table is good at estimating what a 2014 214 will be on the 2015 test, it does not predict what Florida did on the new exam.
The first question to ask is: If the test did not change what do you think the Florida Cut-Off would have been?
Theory 1:
Average PSAT score over the last 5 years is 212.8, so I would guess the cut-off would be 213 if the old test was administered in 2015.
According to Testmasters an old 213 is a 214 on the new test.
@CaucAsianDad Would have to say a 211.
@CaucAsianDad Of course I put no faith in my guess, but would like to think a 214 would be realistic. Testmasters seems to think that their range of 200-210 on the commended and it being 209 leaves them feeling they are close on Smf cutoffs state to state.They argue that certain states,N.Dakota, Wva.,etc., are always right at commended and they projected these states at 210. They feel that substantiates fairly well their smf cutoff projections and don’t feel a need to revisit them for changes.
Which would put florida at 215 with a range of 215-217 .
Theory 2:
Florida’s PSAT scores were negatively impacted by the 2014-15 curriculum change in Algebra II. As teachers scrambled to meet the changing Florida Standardized Assessment (FSA) End of Course (EOC) requirements fundamentals and techniques that would have been included in a Common Core state were missed. As a result Florida students were prepared (or attempted to be prepared) for a different set of standards.
My theory is Common Core states will see improvements in math scores while Florida will see a decrease, compared to the Commended score.
Anecdotal evidence:
My D scored in the 98% for the Algebra II EOC, but is only in the 93% for math in the PSAT.
For the other Florida parents that had a child take the Algebra II EOC - how did their percentile score compRE to their PSAT math percentile?
@CaucAsianDad Sorry, can’t help there,son is homeschooled.
@CaucAsianDad What you say makes sense. Seems so many states had things going on,Mi. and Illinois changing over to Psat statewide,etc.
Looking back at the list of semifinalists last year, it appears the vast majority of Florida’s NMSFs were from private schools, which I believe, do not have to adhere to FSA EOC requirements or implement Common Core.
I would have to go back to look at Algebra 2 EOC numbers. But I too have thought that Florida’s scramble and lack of Common Core implementation would hurt it in the PSAT department. The way the current PSAT is designed does not seem conducive to high scores in Florida across the board. This could further point to 214 being a reasonable cutoff. I personally know too many students with 212+ to make 212 seem likely. 213 seems like a stretch as well.