Think of all those extra dollars that could be thrown into the pot too, LOL!
@albert69, I seem to recall that you’re homeschooled - but perhaps I’m getting you confused w/another poster. If you’re homeschooled, then your homeschool principal (your parent, I presume) should get a letter or email from NMSC once all Finalists are announced in early Feb. So YOU will be one of the first here to know about Finalist status, if you’re homeschooled, while some other schools might delay notifying Finalists for a week or so.
If you don’t have any Cs on your transcript, and if you met the other qualifying conditions, you really should be “in the clear” by now - but I completely, totally understand why you can’t rest easy.
DS & I are leaving on a college visit later this week. He can’t attend this particular school if he’s not NMF, but there’s no other weekend to visit because visiting before a certain date is a requirement. This is not an insignificant trip, but we went ahead and booked the travel because, at some point, we have to keep moving with this thing. If he gets a letter next week, we will cancel the trip. Unfortunately, that means he could have traveled elsewhere that weekend to visit a different college. So much to consider!
I’m sure all the parents on this thread are rooting for you, so please do keep us posted.
@GoAskDad, yes I am home schooled. No letter today! I will post as soon as I get anything.
We are waiting until after I get my letter to go visit WSU (Wichita, not Washington.) Not sure exactly when we will do so; we are thinking in March.
O.K. everybody, pour yourself a cup of coffee and see what you think of this new theory that came to me while I was out hiking today:
Let’s say a student in NJ gets a 223 PSAT score, a 2380 on the SAT, is valedictorian, etc. That student wouldn’t have made NMSF this year. Had that student lived in any other state, he/she would have easily made NMSF.
SparkleMom97’s son and my son live in different states but have almost identical grades, SAT scores, extracurriculars, and 1 semester C in the same course. Let’s say one of them makes NMF and the other does not.
Let’s say a student in one state makes NMF with 3 semester C’s, but a student in another state is disqualified for having 1 semester C.
Do any of these scenarios seem fair? I’ll bet they don’t seem fair to the students who were disqualified. But, I believe that each state gets its share of the 16,000 NMSF’s based on the number of HS seniors (or whatever that formula is) and I also believe that each state must then disqualify 6.25% ((15,000/16,000)-1) of its NMSF pool to arrive at the 15,000 students who will make NMF. Just like each state gets its fair share of NMSF’s, each state must disqualify its fair share also. This is how one student with 3 semester C’s might make NMF in one state, and another student in a different state with only 1 semester C, might not make NMF.
Let’s say NJ was allotted 500 NMSF’s. So, the 500 highest scores on the PSAT will make-up that number of 500. That poor student with the 223 score didn’t make it into the top 500 scores for the state and therefore didn’t make NMSF.
Now let’s say that NJ must disqualify its fair share: 31 (6.25%) of those NMSF’s. So, (6) didn’t hand-in paperwork; (5) had a D on the transcript; (5) had 3 semester C’s; and (10) had 2 semester C’s. All of these students are disqualified and 5 more still need to be cut. Continuing through the process, (10) students have 1 semester C on their transcripts. So (5) of this group will make NMF and (5) will be disqualified. I’d say that this is where such things as course difficulty, GPA, recommendation letters, essays and extracurriculars would come into play to disqualify (5) of these last (10) students.
In another state that also had 500 NMSF’s, maybe all 31 students were disqualified for paperwork; D grades; and 3 semester C’s. That would mean that everyone left (including those with 2 semester C’s) would make NMF.
I don’t think that NMSC decides each year to accept 2 semester C’s or 1 semester C, etc. I think it’s all just a formula similar to the one described above. So when we see a student post something that says he/she made NMF with 1 semester C, we’ve all been hoping that 1 C would be good for this year. I now think that the 1 C was good for that individual student’s state and nothing more. For each of our own states, we’d just have to wait and see how it all shakes out.
What do you think?
^^^
I have suspected that that might happen in some states. NMCorp may need to be “tougher” on the NMSF’s from one state just to eliminate some of them.
After all, if all of the NMSFs in one state all had 2 Cs, NMCorp would not reject them all.
I guess I should be glad I come from a state whose school system is in the bottom 5 for the nation, so the expectations for NMSF/NMF are lower.
That has been my theory also. With the added wrinkle that a NMSF cut score in a state which is high enough to get the desired # of NMSFs may in fact yield too many while a point higher gives too few, so that NMSC chooses the lower score but then needs to be extra tough in that state to get down to the number of NMFs allotted. I think this is likeliest to happen in high population states.
Makes perfect sense to me, but I have to think about that for a bit in regards to PA. Good thing I have that Magic Book listing all the schools and # of SF from each. Something to do during the forecasted snow.
Would you mind sharing how many SF’s there are from the state of CO?
Ha! I can’t even count PA. So much for that idea. But I did count a few different sized columns, and would estimate CO at something slightly under 300.
Scratch that, I decided to count CO to fine tune my estimates, and got 252. Each column is a different size due to number of kids/school. If a column has schools with many SF’s, it will have more names. If each school listed has only 1 or 2, many of the lines will be filled with schools as well as names.
Anyway, a quick count gives CO 252, which may still be off by 1 or 2 (my eyes are old, and the print is small.)
Thank you for taking the time to do this 
The year my D2 made it, someone go their hands on a list of who made it before the announcements (late summer, i think). I don’t think they were supposed to have it, but they did. They would provide anyone who PMed them the list of who made it from their school. We knew D2 made it (no rejection letter, super high PSAT & Regular SATs, no Cs, etc), but we didn’t know who else made it from her school. A few surprises to me – 2 kids that I thought might make it didn’t, and 2 on the list that didn’t expect to see.
http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf
On page 23, there is a list of states with the numbers of Commended and Semifinalist in each state for this cycle. The state I come from has 95 NMSFs. California leads with 1,922, followed by NY with 1,060. CO has 226 according to this. WY has to have the lowest numbers - no Commended students and 28 NMSFs.
That would be last year’s data, correct? (Maybe 2 years ago?) If so, then PA has one more SF this year than last (or my counting is off). I was surprised they were so close.
Interesting that CO increased by so many. 252 up from 226.
@PAMom21 This is for the 2013 program entrants. It is for the 2012-2013 year. Yes, it is a few years old, but I would think the general ranges are the same.
I am honestly too afraid to look at any list, or count any numbers at this point. Just trying to be content in my state of ignorance, lest I get even more agitated before we know - one way or another.
@mom2collegekids, you’re one of the most knowledgeable and helpful posters on CC. Do you recall a time in recent years when letters were sent out in “waves” or groups? One of the threads you linked from 2011 seemed to indicate that letters arrived in batches, as one or two posters reported having received letters well after other posters reported in (like 10 days after). We have at least 1 poster reporting that NMSC told her they had “started” to send out letters @ Jan 15, and I believe @celesteroberts called once and they told her letters were sent out throughout the month. @celesteroberts, did I get that right? Anyway, my (somewhat) solace has been that we’ve seen no “new” postings of letters. My great concern has been the unreliability of our mail delivery, which is a real, ongoing problem. Since I do virtually everything online that matters, it hasn’t been a huge issue - mainly an annoyance - until now.
Since my DS has a semester C, I continue to stress. However, I think anyone who doesn’t have that issue need not worry any longer.
Thanks to the folks who continue to hang on with those of us waiting. And yes, I am really this neurotic in Real Life.
@GoAskDad Well, we have a day off from the mail since it is Sunday. Is that relaxing or gut-tightening because you can’t stop thinking about tomorrow?
Hmm, I didn’t call this year. I suppose I called in some previous year, have to look through my old posts…my Alzheimer’s you know. Actually I know I called them once but don’t recall what they said.
of NMSF in a state may vary from year to year because cut score captures different numbers. But also a state's allocation can change with a change in their proportion of graduating seniors relative to US as a whole. Texas, eg, has seen a big increase the past several years. Which means some other states are seeing decreases as total is unchanged at 16,000.
Hang in there guys.
OK, @goaskdad, you are right. Seems I called NMSC in 1/13 and was told rejection letters are mailed throughout month of January, but I was highly skeptical that I was being told the truth:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/15301293#Comment_15301293
@celesteroberts I guess you spoke to that intern, Jimmie? :))